Florida (FL) Poll * January 22, 2009 * Florida Voters Want Bright Fut - Quinnipiac University

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January 22, 2009 - Florida Voters Want Bright Futures Scholarships 4-1, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Oppose Law Banning Gay Adoption

Word format By an overwhelming 72 - 17 percent margin Florida voters oppose any cuts in the state's "Bright Futures" college scholarship program despite the budget crisis, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Democrats oppose the cuts 78 - 13 percent, as do Republicans 69 - 18 percent and independent voters 71 - 17 percent.
Voters support 71 - 26 percent raising the cigarette tax an additional $1 a pack, the independent Quinnipiac (KIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
The survey also finds that Floridians oppose 55 - 39 percent a state law that prohibits homosexuals from adopting children. Republicans support the law 52 - 43 percent, as do White Evangelical Christians 58 - 37 percent. Democrats oppose the law 61 - 32 percent, along with independent voters 60 - 34 percent.
Gays should be allowed to marry, 27 percent of voters say, while 35 percent favor civil unions but not marriage and 31 percent say there should be no legal recognition of gay unions.
The Bright Futures program, funded by proceeds from the state lottery, has grown dramatically in recent years. It pays up to 100 percent of tuition and fees at any public university in Florida for students who qualify based on their high school grades and test scores.
"There may be a lot of opinion leaders talking about the need to reign in Bright Futures because of its cost in these times of tight budgets, but it is hard to imagine a less popular idea for cuts with the voting public," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"When 85 percent of voters think the program is a good thing and more than three out of four oppose cutting its funding, that pretty much makes it a political non-starter," Brown added. "Even Republicans opposed cuts by almost 4 - 1."
Voters oppose 54 - 32 percent trying to save money by raising test and grade standards so fewer students receive the scholarships. By a smaller 50 - 42 percent margin, voters oppose giving the scholarships only to students whose family income is below a certain level.
Smokers are the only group opposed to the possible cigarette tax hike, 64 - 34 percent. There is little difference among Republicans, Democrats and independents on the question. When voters are then asked the same question and told the money would go for public health programs, support rises slightly to 77 - 21 percent.
Looking at the possible effects of a cigarette tax hike, Florida voters say:
65 percent that it would be "very effective" or "somewhat effective" in discouraging young people from smoking; 50 percent that it would be "very effective" or "somewhat effective" in reducing smoking among current smokers; 58 percent that it would be "very effective" or "somewhat effective" in reducing state costs for medical care.
And 49 percent of smokers say they would cut down or quit if taxes are raised.
"Voters generally are opposed to raising taxes, even in order to balance the budget, but they seem to make an exception for cigarette taxes," said Brown. "Given the public support, even normally anti-tax lawmakers might see this as a politically acceptable notion to the voting public.
"Interestingly, the public is split on whether raising cigarette taxes will lead to fewer people smoking, although they think it would be effective in reducing smoking among young people," Brown said. "They do think, however, it might reduce the state's medical costs. Voters don't see hiking cigarette taxes as unfair to smokers; they seem to view it as a user fee."
From January 14 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,370 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
24. How much have you heard or read about Florida's lottery funded college scholarship program called Bright Futures - A lot, some, not much or nothing at all?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl A lot 23% 26% 22% 23% 21% 25% 21% Some 30 30 31 28 30 30 32 Not much 21 20 19 26 24 19 23 Nothing at all 25 24 27 21 25 25 24 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 1 - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE A lot 27% 22% 23% 24% 21% Some 30 28 27 30 34 Not much 15 22 25 18 23 Nothing at all 27 27 24 27 20 DK/NA 1 1 - - 1 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree A lot 33% 32% 16% 18% 31% 32% 19% 35% Some 30 28 31 28 28 40 28 34 Not much 17 19 22 23 23 17 23 16 Nothing at all 18 20 30 29 18 11 29 14 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 - - 1 -
25. As you may be aware, the merit based Bright Futures program helps pay college tuition for Florida students who meet required high school grades and S.A.T. test scores. Do you think the Bright Futures scholarship program is a good thing or a bad thing for Florida?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good thing 85% 82% 88% 86% 84% 86% 86% Bad thing 6 6 4 6 7 5 3 DK/NA 10 11 7 9 10 10 11 North/ HvKids Heard a lot PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE <18 or some Q24 Good thing 86% 84% 88% 82% 83% 88% 92% Bad thing 8 5 5 6 5 6 6 DK/NA 7 11 8 12 12 7 2 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Good thing 87% 90% 82% 86% 86% 81% 85% 84% Bad thing 4 7 5 5 5 10 5 7 DK/NA 9 3 13 9 8 9 10 8
26. Some have suggested reducing state funding to the Bright Futures scholarship program. In general do you support or oppose reducing funding to the Bright Futures program?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 17% 18% 13% 17% 20% 14% 17% Oppose 72 69 78 71 69 74 71 DK/NA 12 13 9 12 11 12 11 North/ HvKids Heard a lot PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE <18 or some Q24 Support 18% 21% 15% 16% 14% 13% 15% Oppose 74 68 75 70 71 77 81 DK/NA 8 11 10 14 15 9 4 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Support 8% 17% 20% 17% 14% 14% 17% 16% Oppose 85 77 65 71 76 76 71 74 DK/NA 7 6 15 11 10 10 12 10
27. To help lower the cost of the Bright Futures Scholarship program Do you support or oppose - Raising the required level of high school grades and S.A.T. test scores so that fewer students would qualify for scholarship money?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 32% 37% 30% 32% 37% 28% 33% Oppose 54 48 59 55 51 58 53 DK/NA 13 15 11 13 12 14 14 North/ HvKids Heard a lot PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE <18 or some Q24 Support 28% 35% 31% 28% 37% 29% 31% Oppose 61 54 56 52 50 56 62 DK/NA 11 11 13 20 13 15 7 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Support 25% 35% 33% 31% 33% 39% 33% 32% Oppose 64 55 51 58 54 48 54 55 DK/NA 11 10 16 11 13 13 13 13
28. To help lower the cost of the Bright Futures Scholarship program Do you support or oppose - Only giving scholarship money to students whose family income is below a certain level?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 42% 37% 45% 47% 46% 39% 41% Oppose 50 57 46 45 47 52 50 DK/NA 8 6 9 8 7 9 9 North/ HvKids Heard a lot PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE <18 or some Q24 Support 44% 37% 43% 47% 43% 32% 42% Oppose 47 56 50 39 50 60 53 DK/NA 9 6 7 14 7 8 5 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Support 33% 41% 44% 47% 36% 41% 44% 38% Oppose 66 51 45 46 57 55 47 55 DK/NA 1 8 10 7 7 4 9 7
29. To help lower the cost of the Bright Futures Scholarship program Do you support or oppose - Reducing the amount of scholarship money given to each student?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 22% 29% 19% 19% 24% 21% 25% Oppose 62 53 67 64 61 62 58 DK/NA 16 18 14 17 15 17 18 North/ HvKids Heard a lot PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE <18 or some Q24 Support 21% 20% 24% 21% 23% 29% 20% Oppose 68 61 59 59 61 55 70 DK/NA 11 19 17 20 16 16 10 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Support 22% 21% 22% 22% 23% 23% 21% 24% Oppose 63 68 59 67 58 61 62 61 DK/NA 15 10 20 11 19 16 17 14
30. Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed legally to marry, should be allowed legally to form civil unions but not marry, or should not be allowed to obtain legal recognition of their relationships?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Marry 27% 13% 36% 31% 28% 27% 10% Civil unions 35 39 28 39 33 36 34 No recognition 31 44 28 24 33 30 52 DK/NA 7 5 8 7 6 7 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Marry 19% 20% 29% 27% 38% Civil unions 30 38 32 38 37 No recognition 45 36 30 27 19 DK/NA 6 6 9 8 6 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Marry 39% 26% 24% 25% 29% 35% 24% 35% Civil unions 34 33 36 30 38 43 32 42 No recognition 24 33 32 39 25 17 37 18 DK/NA 3 8 7 7 8 4 7 5
TREND: Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed legally to marry, should be allowed legally to form civil unions, but not marry, or should not be allowed to obtain legal recognition of their relationships?
Jan 22 Sep 8 Aug 8 2009 2008 2007 Marry 27 27 27 Civil unions 35 35 29 No recognition 31 31 35 DK/NA 7 6 9
31. Florida law bans gay or lesbian individuals and couples from adopting children. Do you approve or disapprove of this law?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 39% 52% 32% 34% 41% 37% 58% Disapprove 55 43 61 60 53 56 37 DK/NA 6 5 7 6 6 7 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 44% 39% 41% 43% 30% Disapprove 50 53 53 51 64 DK/NA 5 8 6 6 6 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Approve 31% 37% 42% 42% 35% 36% 42% 31% Disapprove 63 57 52 52 58 60 52 64 DK/NA 6 6 6 6 7 4 7 5
32. Florida's cigarette tax is now 34 cents a pack. Some legislators and public health groups are suggesting raising the cigarette tax an additional dollar a pack. Do you support or oppose raising cigarette taxes in Florida one dollar a pack?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 71% 66% 72% 74% 68% 73% 62% Oppose 26 31 24 23 30 23 37 DK/NA 3 3 4 2 3 4 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Smokers Q38 Support 69% 65% 68% 57% 84% 34% Oppose 27 32 27 40 15 64 DK/NA 4 3 5 3 1 2 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Support 84% 64% 69% 66% 73% 79% 68% 78% Oppose 15 31 28 31 24 19 29 20 DK/NA 1 5 3 3 4 2 4 2
33. Would you support or oppose raising the cigarette tax one dollar a pack if the money was used for health care programs?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 77% 69% 82% 78% 74% 79% 66% Oppose 21 25 17 20 24 18 29 DK/NA 3 6 2 1 2 3 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Smokers Q38 Support 73% 71% 77% 64% 88% 46% Oppose 23 26 21 34 11 52 DK/NA 4 4 3 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Support 86% 73% 75% 75% 77% 82% 75% 81% Oppose 10 24 23 22 20 17 22 17 DK/NA 4 2 3 3 3 1 3 2
34. How effective do you think a one dollar increase in the cigarette tax would be in reducing smoking among current smokers - very effective, somewhat effective, not too effective, or not effective at all?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very effective 13% 11% 17% 9% 9% 15% 7% Smwht effective 37 31 40 41 37 38 38 Not too effective 26 32 21 28 32 22 28 Not effective 22 25 20 21 21 23 25 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Smokers Q38 Very effective 13% 13% 13% 6% 14% 14% Smwht effective 34 35 37 43 40 26 Not too effective 27 25 29 23 26 30 Not effective 23 26 20 27 18 28 DK/NA 4 1 1 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Very effective 18% 9% 12% 15% 7% 11% 13% 10% Smwht effective 35 37 40 34 44 36 37 40 Not too effective 35 29 22 25 29 29 25 29 Not effective 9 24 25 23 20 22 23 20 DK/NA 3 1 2 2 1 1 2 1
35. How effective do you think a one dollar increase in the cigarette tax would be in discouraging young people from starting to smoke - very effective, somewhat effective, not too effective, or not effective at all?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very effective 23% 20% 30% 18% 20% 25% 22% Smwht effective 42 41 40 46 41 42 42 Not too effective 15 17 13 16 16 14 14 Not effective 20 21 17 19 22 18 22 DK/NA 1 - - 1 - 1 - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Smokers Q38 Very effective 20% 22% 24% 17% 27% 23% Smwht effective 42 44 40 41 41 32 Not too effective 16 13 18 15 13 14 Not effective 21 21 17 26 18 30 DK/NA - - - 2 1 - AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Very effective 29% 19% 24% 26% 20% 17% 24% 20% Smwht effective 38 41 43 40 46 44 41 44 Not too effective 21 15 14 13 14 19 13 19 Not effective 12 26 19 20 20 19 21 17 DK/NA - - 1 1 - - 1 1
36. How effective do you think a one dollar increase in the cigarette tax would be inreducing the states costs for medical care to smokers - very effective, somewhat effective, not too effective, or not effective at all?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very effective 15% 10% 21% 12% 14% 16% 11% Smwht effective 43 41 43 46 44 43 45 Not too effective 20 23 19 19 22 17 17 Not effective 19 23 14 19 18 20 23 DK/NA 3 2 4 4 2 4 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Smokers Q38 Very effective 20% 12% 12% 14% 18% 16% Smwht effective 39 45 43 39 47 33 Not too effective 17 15 24 22 19 18 Not effective 21 24 18 21 12 31 DK/NA 3 3 3 4 3 2 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Very effective 19% 13% 16% 18% 12% 10% 16% 13% Smwht effective 47 39 44 40 47 52 40 50 Not too effective 23 23 16 18 21 21 19 21 Not effective 11 23 19 20 18 15 21 13 DK/NA - 3 5 5 2 1 4 2
37. Regardless of whether you personally favor or oppose an increase in the tax on cigarettes, overall do you think an increase in this tax is fair or unfair to smokers?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fair 52% 48% 57% 55% 49% 56% 48% Unfair 43 47 39 39 47 39 48 DK/NA 5 5 5 6 4 5 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Smokers Q38 Fair 49% 46% 54% 43% 62% 29% Unfair 46 50 42 48 33 70 DK/NA 5 4 4 9 4 1 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Fair 62% 52% 48% 49% 54% 60% 50% 57% Unfair 37 44 46 47 41 37 44 39 DK/NA 2 4 6 5 4 3 5 4
38. Do you currently smoke cigarettes?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 16% 16% 17% 14% 16% 16% 19% No 84 84 83 86 84 84 81 DK/NA - - - - - - - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 20% 18% 15% 16% 11% No 79 82 85 84 89 DK/NA 0 - - - - AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Yes 16% 22% 13% 22% 14% 7% 19% 8% No 84 78 87 78 86 93 81 92 DK/NA - - - - - - - -
39. (Smokers q38) If cigarette taxes are raised one dollar per pack, do you think it would cause you to cut down on your smoking, quit smoking altogether or would it have no effect on your smoking?
SMOKERS Q38...... Tot Men Wom Cut down 30% 36% 25% Quit 19 16 22 No effect 50 46 53 DK/NA 1 1 -