Florida (FL) Poll * February 19, 2009 * Florida's Independent Voters S - Quinnipiac University

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February 19, 2009 - Florida's Independent Voters Swing To Obama And Crist, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Don't Think Stimulus Plan Will Help Them

Word format President Barack Obama may be getting criticism for his stimulus package in Washington, but Floridians are as sweet on him as they are on their own wildly popular Gov. Charlie Crist. The two men have lofty positive job approval ratings, 64 - 23 percent for President Obama and 67 - 22 percent for Gov. Crist, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Florida voters split on whether the Obama stimulus package will help solve the nation's economic problems, with 51 percent who are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" the plan will help, and 49 percent who are "not too confident" or "not confident at all," the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Voters say 60 - 35 percent that the stimulus plan will not help them personally. Even voters making less than $50,000 a year don't expect the plan to help their finances.
The key to high voter approval ratings for Democrat Obama and Republican Crist is party crossover and the good will of independent voters: The President gets a 33 - 47 percent approval from Republicans and a 66 - 22 percent thumbs up from independents, while Crist gets a 66 - 22 percent score from Democrats and a 63 - 24 percent nod from independents.
"Floridians give President Obama a 64 - 23 percent job approval rating, almost as high as the 67 - 22 percent rating they give Governor Crist. Asked to rate the men favorably or unfavorably, they give the President a 69 - 22 percent positive rating and Crist a 68 - 21 percent verdict," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Those are the kinds of numbers that politicians die for. Crist has been at about this level for two years so it's a safe assumption that he is no flash in the pan."
"Obama certainly has made a good first impression. For him the question is whether he can sustain these levels as has Crist," Brown added.
Obama, who surprised many by carrying Florida, albeit narrowly, in the November election, even gets a 44 - 42 percent job approval from white evangelical Christians, a heavily Republican group.
Crist doesn't do nearly as well among Republicans, a 71 percent job approval, as Obama does among Democrats, 91 percent. Among Republicans, Crist and Obama both do best among those who consider themselves to be moderate or liberal, about a third of the GOP electorate.
"It's not surprising that when the Democratic President came to Florida to tout his economic program, the Republican Governor was at his side. Both men are trying to cultivate the political middle. The President's support among his own party is stronger than the Governor's by a substantial amount, but he can't come close to Crist's strength among the opposition," said Brown.
Only 4 percent of Florida voters expect the economic stimulus plan to deliver results in one year, while 70 percent say it will take more than a year and 24 percent say it never will work. Still, 65 percent of voters say the U.S. economy will get better by the end of Obama's first term.
"Floridians appear to see the economic morass as something that will pass with time, not necessarily the kind of problem that the government will be able to solve quickly," said Brown. "And most don't expect to benefit personally from the stimulus plan."
Voters are much more pessimistic about the state and national economy than they are about their own financial situation: 97 percent rate the national economy as "not so good" or "poor," while 91 percent rate the state economy the same way and 52 percent rate their own personal finances that way.
From February 11 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,001 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 67% 71% 66% 63% 65% 69% 67% Disapprove 22 21 22 24 23 20 21 DK/NA 11 9 12 14 12 11 12 North/ REPUBLICAN.... PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Cons Mod/Lib Approve 61% 73% 58% 80% 71% 69% 74% Disapprove 26 16 25 13 23 24 15 DK/NA 13 11 16 7 7 7 11
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? (*also High 73% on 3/29/07)
APPROVE....... High Low Feb 19 Jan 21 Nov 18 Sep 8 Jun 3 Jul 19 Apr 10 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007* 2008 Approve 67 65 68 61 61 73 59 Disapprove 22 24 18 25 23 11 25 DK/NA 11 11 13 14 16 16 15
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 48% 36% 63% 47% 48% 48% 49% Disapprove 22 35 9 22 24 21 27 DK/NA 30 30 28 31 28 31 24 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 48% 56% 45% 42% 46% Disapprove 23 18 24 28 22 DK/NA 29 26 31 30 32
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Feb xx Jan 21 Nov 18 Sep 8 Jun 3 Feb 6 Aug 12 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007 2004 Approve 48 53 51 49 51 54 42 Disapprove 22 19 22 23 26 18 18 DK/NA 30 29 27 28 24 28 40
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 43% 56% 32% 40% 43% 43% 51% Disapprove 31 21 40 35 33 30 27 DK/NA 26 23 28 25 24 27 22 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 38% 48% 46% 30% 44% Disapprove 28 30 29 44 34 DK/NA 34 23 25 26 22
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Feb xx Jan 21 Nov 18 Sep 8 Jun 3 Feb 6 Oct 24 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 Approve 43 42 42 37 40 48 35 Disapprove 31 30 33 32 35 22 34 DK/NA 26 28 25 31 25 29 31
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 64% 33% 91% 66% 61% 67% 44% Disapprove 23 47 2 22 28 19 42 DK/NA 13 20 7 12 11 14 14 North/ REPUBLICAN.... PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Cons Mod/Lib Approve 58% 64% 61% 50% 76% 18% 56% Disapprove 27 22 25 41 13 61 25 DK/NA 15 14 14 9 10 20 19
19. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 69% 39% 96% 70% 66% 72% 46% Unfavorable 22 46 2 20 26 19 44 Hvn't hrd enough 6 10 2 6 5 6 7 REFUSED 3 5 1 3 3 3 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 60% 69% 65% 57% 84% Unfavorable 28 21 24 35 13 Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 7 1 3 REFUSED 3 3 4 6 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FAVORABLE.... High Low Feb 19 Jan 21 May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Feb 19 Apr 2 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2009 2007 Favorable 69 66 44 47 42 69 42 Unfavorable 22 16 40 36 38 22 38 Hvn't hrd enough 6 12 14 14 16 6 16 REFUSED 3 5 2 3 4 3 4
20. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 68% 76% 65% 63% 67% 69% 70% Unfavorable 21 16 23 23 22 20 20 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 9 10 9 8 5 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 2 3 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 64% 75% 59% 82% 70% Unfavorable 24 14 25 15 21 Hvn't hrd enough 11 8 11 1 7 REFUSED 1 3 5 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 19 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 68 67 65 Unfavorable 21 21 22 Hvn't hrd enough 9 10 10 REFUSED 3 2 2
26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 59% 29% 88% 56% 54% 63% 44% Disapprove 28 54 3 28 33 23 45 DK/NA 13 17 8 16 13 14 11 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 48% 59% 58% 46% 71% Disapprove 33 26 31 44 17 DK/NA 19 15 11 10 12 INCOME............. NoColl College <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Approve 62% 57% 55% 57% 64% Disapprove 23 34 37 28 28 DK/NA 15 10 8 16 8
27. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Excellent - - 1% - 1% - - Good 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 Not so good 25 32 21 21 26 23 29 Poor 72 64 76 76 69 75 68 DK/NA - - - 1 - - - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Excellent 2% - - - - Good 2 5 3 1 3 Not so good 30 25 28 16 19 Poor 66 70 69 82 77 DK/NA - - - 1 - INCOME............. NoColl College <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Excellent 1% - - 1% - Good 2 4 2 3 3 Not so good 24 32 17 24 25 Poor 73 65 81 72 72 DK/NA - - - - -
TREND: Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Feb 19 Sep 23 Aug 12 2009 2004 2004 Excellent - 4 3 Good 3 36 38 Not so good 25 38 37 Poor 72 21 21 DK/NA - 1 1
28. Would you describe the state of Florida's economy these days as - excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Excellent - 1% - - - - - Good 9 14 4 10 12 6 10 Not so good 40 50 37 31 40 39 49 Poor 51 35 59 59 48 54 40 DK/NA - 1 - - - 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Excellent 1% - - - - Good 14 8 8 6 8 Not so good 51 46 39 28 31 Poor 33 46 53 66 61 DK/NA 1 - - - - INCOME............. NoColl College <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Excellent - - 1% - 1% Good 6 13 10 9 10 Not so good 42 44 29 42 35 Poor 52 43 60 49 54 DK/NA - - - - 1
TREND: Would you describe the state of Florida's economy these days as - excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Feb 19 Dec 7 Jun 29 2009 2004 2004 Excellent - 8 7 Good 9 52 48 Not so good 40 27 31 Poor 51 10 11 DK/NA - 3 3
29. Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as - excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Excellent 6% 5% 3% 8% 8% 3% 7% Good 41 50 32 42 42 40 47 Not so good 34 31 40 30 34 34 31 Poor 18 12 24 18 14 22 13 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Excellent 6% 4% 6% 9% 5% Good 50 47 39 34 33 Not so good 27 31 36 29 40 Poor 15 15 17 26 21 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 1 INCOME............. NoColl College <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Excellent 3% 3% 17% 5% 7% Good 28 59 59 37 51 Not so good 40 31 20 35 32 Poor 28 6 3 22 9 DK/NA 1 - - 2 2
TREND: Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as - excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Feb 19 Nov 19 2009 2008 Excellent 6 7 Good 41 49 Not so good 34 30 Poor 18 13 DK/NA 2 1
30. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Better off 17% 24% 12% 15% 21% 12% 20% Worse off 61 54 66 63 59 64 55 SAME(VOL) 21 21 19 21 18 23 24 DK/NA 2 1 3 - 2 2 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Better off 24% 18% 19% 10% 10% Worse off 51 60 58 70 70 SAME(VOL) 24 19 21 20 19 DK/NA 1 3 1 - 2 INCOME............. NoColl College <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Better off 16% 14% 27% 17% 16% Worse off 64 60 57 62 59 SAME(VOL) 19 24 16 19 24 DK/NA - 1 - 1 2
TREND: Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
Feb 19 Nov 19 Dec 7 2009 2008 2004 Better off 17 20 42 Worse off 61 59 34 SAME(VOL) 21 20 22 DK/NA 2 1 1
31. During the next 12 months, do you think your own personal finances will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Get better 29% 28% 32% 26% 31% 27% 27% Get worse 17 18 13 22 19 16 21 Stay the same 50 51 50 49 47 53 51 DK/NA 4 3 5 2 3 4 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Get better 26% 34% 34% 13% 27% Get worse 19 16 16 13 20 Stay the same 53 45 48 73 48 DK/NA 2 5 3 2 5 INCOME............. NoColl College <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Get better 28% 28% 30% 29% 28% Get worse 17 20 19 16 20 Stay the same 52 50 50 51 49 DK/NA 3 2 1 4 4
TREND: During the next 12 months, do you think your own personal finances will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
Feb 19 Nov 19 2009 2008 Get better 29 31 Get worse 17 21 Stay the same 50 44 DK/NA 4 4
32. By the end of Barack Obama's term in office, do you expect the economy to be better than it is today, worse than it is today, or about the same?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Better 65% 37% 89% 68% 60% 69% 40% Worse 17 33 2 15 22 12 35 Same 14 25 7 12 13 15 20 DK/NA 4 5 3 4 5 4 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Better 54% 60% 65% 55% 79% Worse 24 17 17 24 8 Same 19 18 12 15 10 DK/NA 4 4 5 6 3 INCOME............. NoColl College <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Better 66% 64% 66% 63% 69% Worse 13 18 22 16 18 Same 16 14 12 16 10 DK/NA 5 5 1 5 3
33. Congress is debating President Obama's economic stimulus package which includes tax cuts and new federal spending of about 800 billion dollars. Do you support or oppose this economic stimulus package?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 56% 26% 88% 53% 51% 61% 35% Oppose 36 66 7 37 43 29 56 DK/NA 8 9 6 10 6 11 9 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Support 43% 53% 53% 41% 75% Oppose 46 37 40 53 17 DK/NA 11 10 6 6 8 INCOME............. NoColl College <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Support 61% 50% 54% 54% 60% Oppose 30 44 42 36 35 DK/NA 9 6 4 10 5
34. How confident are you that this economic stimulus package will help solve the nation's economic problems - Very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not confident at all?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very confident 9% 1% 19% 5% 9% 8% 4% Smwht confident 42 19 65 39 36 47 29 Not too confident 25 36 12 29 24 25 24 Not confident at all 24 44 3 25 30 18 40 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Very confident 8% 6% 8% 3% 14% Smwht confident 38 44 34 43 50 Not too confident 18 28 28 19 25 Not confident at all 34 21 27 35 10 DK/NA 2 1 3 - 1 INCOME............. NoColl College <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Very confident 11% 3% 7% 9% 8% Smwht confident 45 41 35 40 45 Not too confident 23 26 28 26 22 Not confident at all 19 28 29 24 23 DK/NA 2 2 - 2 2
35. How long do you think it will take for the program to work - less than a year, more than a year, or will it never work?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Less than a year 4% 2% 7% 2% 4% 4% 2% More than a year 70 51 88 71 65 74 49 Never 24 45 3 26 30 19 45 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 1 4 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Less than a year 3% 6% 2% - 5% More than a year 63 69 67 59 81 Never 33 23 27 36 12 DK/NA 1 2 4 4 2 INCOME............. NoColl College <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Less than a year 3% 5% 4% 4% 3% More than a year 74 69 63 69 70 Never 20 26 33 24 25 DK/NA 3 1 1 3 1
36. Do you think the economic stimulus package will help your personal financial situation?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 35% 16% 55% 33% 33% 36% 23% No 60 80 39 60 64 55 73 DK/NA 6 4 6 6 3 8 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 29% 38% 32% 27% 42% No 64 60 60 70 52 DK/NA 7 3 8 3 5 INCOME............. NoColl College <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Yes 39% 33% 27% 34% 36% No 57 62 68 59 60 DK/NA 4 6 5 6 4