Florida (FL) Poll * July 26, 2006 * Crist, Davis Have Big Primary - Quinnipiac University

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July 26, 2006 - Crist, Davis Have Big Primary Leads In Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Florida Poll Finds; But Democratic Likely Voters Remain Uncertain

Republican Florida Attorney General Charlie Crist and Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Davis hold more than 20-point leads in their respective races for the gubernatorial nomination among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Crist leads Florida Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher 55 - 32 percent among likely Republican primary voters, including leaners, and 47 - 29 percent among all registered Republicans, according to the independent Quinnipiac University poll, down from a 49 - 21 percent Crist lead in a June 29 poll of registered Republicans.
Davis leads Smith 47 - 19 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, with leaners, and 39 - 15 percent among all registered Democrats, compared to a 32 - 16 percent Davis lead June 29. But the Democratic race is more fluid because 33 percent of likely voters remain undecided and 64 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
In general election matchups:
Crist leads Davis 44 - 38 percent, up from 41 - 39 in June, and leads Smith 45 - 36 percent, compared to 42 - 35 percent in June Davis leads Gallagher 41 - 39 percent, compared to 42 - 35 percent in June. Gallagher leads Smith 39 - 38, compared to a 39 - 36 percent Smith lead in June.
"Although the numbers for the Republican and Democratic primaries look similar, the situations are not analogous," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The Democratic race for governor remains much more fluid because a third of the likely voters are undecided and most of the rest say they could still change their minds," Brown added.
"Crist's lead over Gallagher looks to be a little more stable because both of those candidates are better known to Florida voters, and there are far fewer undecided voters in that race."
"The numbers in both the Republican and Democratic primaries remain fluid, however, because of the voters' general lack of familiarity with the candidates. It is often difficult to change voters' perceptions in the final weeks of the campaign, but in these races - and especially the Democratic one - the candidates are still such blank slates to so many voters that anything could happen."
In the Republican race, about half the voters favoring both Crist and Gallagher say they could still change their mind. In the Democratic contest, 60 percent of Davis' supporters and 70 percent of Smith's said they might change their minds.
From July 19 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,541 Florida registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 340 likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percentage points, and 319 likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 56% 84% 36% 52% 60% 32% 55% Disapprove 35 11 53 39 32 53 34 DK/NA 9 5 11 10 8 15 11 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Approve 59% 55% 65% 63% 45% 60% 53% Disapprove 32 38 26 26 46 33 37 DK/NA 9 7 9 11 9 7 10
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Sep 23 Aug 12 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2004 2004 Approve 56 57 55 55 54 62 45 Disapprove 35 34 35 36 35 30 44 DK/NA 9 9 9 9 11 8 11
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 43% 62% 31% 38% 43% 41% 47% Disapprove 41 22 53 46 40 45 35 DK/NA 17 16 17 16 17 14 19 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Approve 46% 37% 46% 45% 41% 45% 41% Disapprove 38 48 38 33 42 40 41 DK/NA 17 15 16 21 17 15 18
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Sep 23 Jun 29 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2004 2004 Approve 43 44 40 43 44 51 39 Disapprove 41 40 44 40 36 34 42 DK/NA 17 16 16 17 21 15 18
6. Is your opinion of -- Congressman Jim Davis favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 9% 8% 11% 7% 9% 14% 5% Unfavorable 4 3 5 5 4 4 7 Mixed 9 8 7 15 10 7 13 Hvn't hrd enough 76 81 76 72 77 76 74 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Favorable 14% 17% 4% 6% 6% 11% 7% Unfavorable 3 5 5 - 6 6 3 Mixed 8 15 9 7 8 9 10 Hvn't hrd enough 74 63 83 86 78 73 79 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 - 1 Likely Dem Primary Vtrs Favorable 16% Unfavorable 6 Mixed 11 Hvn't hrd enough 66 REFUSED 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Congressman Jim Davis favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 9 11 9 10 11 Unfavorable 4 4 3 4 3 Mixed 9 10 8 9 7 Hvn't hrd enough 76 74 78 75 77 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1
7. Is your opinion of -- State Senator Rod Smith favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 7% 5% 11% 6% 7% 10% 4% Unfavorable 4 3 2 8 4 6 6 Mixed 7 7 8 8 7 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 80 84 79 78 82 75 80 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 - - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Favorable 13% 5% 5% 11% 7% 9% 6% Unfavorable 5 4 3 3 6 6 3 Mixed 6 8 8 8 7 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 75 83 84 76 79 76 83 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 Likely Dem Primary Vtrs Favorable 15% Unfavorable 5 Mixed 6 Hvn't hrd enough 73 REFUSED 1
TREND: Is your opinion of State Senator Rod Smith favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 7 7 6 8 7 Unfavorable 4 3 1 3 4 Mixed 7 9 7 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 80 81 84 82 82 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1
8. Is your opinion of -- Attorney General Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 36% 50% 29% 32% 41% 19% 22% Unfavorable 11 5 14 14 11 15 8 Mixed 15 15 15 15 15 17 10 Hvn't hrd enough 36 29 42 37 32 49 59 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Favorable 34% 51% 38% 33% 26% 38% 35% Unfavorable 10 11 9 17 13 13 9 Mixed 14 16 17 15 14 15 16 Hvn't hrd enough 41 21 34 34 46 33 39 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 Likely Rep Primary Vtrs Favorable 57% Unfavorable 6 Mixed 14 Hvn't hrd enough 23 REFUSED -
TREND: Is your opinion of Attorney General Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 36 34 34 33 31 Unfavorable 11 12 9 8 8 Mixed 15 17 14 13 13 Hvn't hrd enough 36 37 43 45 47 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2
9. Is your opinion of -- State Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 26% 37% 22% 21% 27% 27% 24% Unfavorable 14 9 17 17 14 14 10 Mixed 16 14 14 21 16 16 15 Hvn't hrd enough 43 40 47 41 43 44 50 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Favorable 30% 23% 27% 28% 24% 30% 23% Unfavorable 13 18 11 12 17 15 14 Mixed 17 16 16 19 14 14 18 Hvn't hrd enough 40 41 46 37 45 41 45 REFUSED 1 1 - 4 - - 1 Likely Rep Primary Vtrs Favorable 44% Unfavorable 11 Mixed 18 Hvn't hrd enough 27 REFUSED -
TREND: Is your opinion of Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 26 25 28 29 27 Unfavorable 14 11 9 9 9 Mixed 16 17 16 13 14 Hvn't hrd enough 43 46 46 49 49 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1
10. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Davis 38% 4% 71% 30% 32% 71% 47% Crist 44 84 17 38 49 11 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 - DK/NA 16 10 12 27 16 16 17 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Davis 37% 37% 31% 29% 48% 38% 38% Crist 42 47 50 49 35 44 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 19 14 17 19 15 15 17
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Davis 38 39 40 39 36 40 Crist 44 41 37 37 40 39 SMONE ELSE 1 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 1 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 16 18 19 20 22 19
11. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Tom Gallagher the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Davis 41% 7% 75% 33% 36% 76% 47% Gallagher 39 79 11 36 43 12 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 - 2 DK/NA 16 12 12 25 18 13 11 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Davis 39% 44% 32% 27% 54% 41% 41% Gallagher 41 33 47 53 32 41 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 17 18 19 17 11 15 18
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Tom Gallagher the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Davis 41 42 40 38 36 41 Gallagher 39 35 37 38 37 38 SMONE ELSE 1 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 16 20 20 22 25 18
12. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Rod Smith the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Smith 36% 5% 68% 27% 32% 67% 41% Crist 45 84 17 42 49 17 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 - - DK/NA 17 10 15 27 18 15 13 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Smith 38% 30% 29% 31% 47% 35% 37% Crist 43 53 50 51 35 47 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 17 16 19 15 15 15 19
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Rod Smith the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Smith 36 35 37 37 32 36 Crist 45 42 39 39 42 41 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 17 20 20 21 23 20
13. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Rod Smith the Democrat and Tom Gallagher the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Smith 38% 4% 71% 32% 34% 69% 46% Gallagher 39 80 13 31 42 11 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 - 1 DK/NA 19 13 14 30 20 17 14 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Men Wom Smith 37% 37% 31% 30% 50% 37% 40% Gallagher 41 35 44 50 31 42 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 1 1 3 1 2 DK/NA 19 24 22 17 15 17 21
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Rod Smith the Democrat and Tom Gallagher the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Smith 38 39 35 35 34 36 Gallagher 39 36 39 41 38 41 SMONE ELSE 2 2 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 19 21 23 21 25 19
24. (If registered republican) If the 2006 Republican primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Charlie Crist and Tom Gallagher for whom would you vote? (If undecided q24a) As of today, do you lean more toward Crist or Gallagher? * This table includes Leaners.
Likely Rep Primary Vtrs Crist 55% Gallagher 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 12
24a. (If registered republican) If the 2006 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Charlie Crist and Tom Gallagher for whom would you vote?
Reg Rep Crist 47% Gallagher 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 21
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2006 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Charlie Crist and Tom Gallagher for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................ Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Crist 47 49 43 34 40 Gallagher 29 21 26 30 31 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE 1 1 2 3 1 DK/NA 21 28 28 33 27
24b. (If candidate choice given q24a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS... Reg CAND OF CHOICE Q24a Rep Tot Crist Gallagher Made up 36% 46% 43% 52% Might change 62 51 53 48 DK/NA 2 3 4 1
25. (If "Crist" q24a) Is your vote more for Crist or more against Gallagher?
CRIST VOTERS Q24a Reg Likely Rep Rep Primary Vtrs For Crist 80% 79% Against Gallagher 10 9 DK/NA 11 13
26. (If "Gallagher" q24a) Is your vote more for Gallagher or more against Crist?
GALLAGHER VOTERS Q24a Reg Likely Rep Rep Primary Vtrs For Gallagher 73% 81% Against Crist 12 9 DK/NA 15 10
28. (If registered democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis and Rod Smith for whom would you vote? (If undecided q28a) As of today, do you lean more toward Davis or Smith? This table includes Leaners.
Likely Dem Primary Vtrs Davis 47% Smith 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 33
28a. (If registered democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis and Rod Smith for whom would you vote?
Reg Dem Davis 39% Smith 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 DK/NA 43
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis and Rod Smith, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................. Jul 26 Jun 29 May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Davis 39 32 38 27 29 Smith 15 16 17 17 13 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 4 3 DK/NA 43 49 41 50 53
28b. (If candidate choice q28a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
LIKELY DEM PRIME VOTERS.... Reg CAND OF CHOICE Q28a Dem Tot Davis Smith Made up 28% 35% 37% 29% Might change 70 64 62 69 DK/NA 2 1 1 1
29. (If Davis voter q28a) Is your vote more for Davis or more against Smith?
DAVIS VOTERS Q28a Reg Likely Dem Dem Primary Vtrs For Davis 73% 69% Against Smith 12 13 DK/NA 15 18
30. (If Smith voter q28a) Is your vote more for Smith or more against Davis?
SMITH VOTERS Q28a Reg Likely Dem Dem Primary Vtrs For Smith 65% 61% Against Davis 18 19 DK/NA 18 20