Ohio (OH) Poll * June 30, 2010 * Fisher, Portman Locked In Hors - Quinnipiac University

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June 30, 2010 - Fisher, Portman Locked In Horse Race In Ohio Senate Bid, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Can't Get Above Water In Key Swing State

Word format Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Republican Rob Portman remain in a tight race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat with 42 percent for Fisher and 40 percent for Portman, with 17 percent undecided, statistically unchanged from April and March surveys, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
President Barack Obama's job approval remains "underwater" among Ohio voters, with 45 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving, compared to a 45 - 50 percent negative approval rating in an April 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Support for the war in Afghanistan drops to its lowest level in Ohio as 48 percent say the U.S. should not be involved while 46 percent say the U.S. is doing the right thing fighting in Afghanistan.
Ohio voters still disapprove 55 - 36 percent of the federal health care overhaul passed earlier this year compared to 55 - 38 percent in April.
"The Senate race remains far, far from any kind of clear picture, mostly because neither candidate is well known to Ohioans. Even though Fisher has been a figure in Ohio politics for two decades, 54 percent of voters say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Portman, 66 percent can't rate him. With four months until Election Day the Senate race is wide, wide open," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Besides the horse race, other measures of attitudes towards the candidates are more favorable to the Republican candidate. By 33 - 30 percent voters say they trust Portman more to do in office what he promises on the campaign trail and by 36 - 31 percent they say Portman, rather than Fisher, most shares their values.
Fisher is viewed favorably by 28 percent of Ohio voters and unfavorably by 17 percent. Portman gets a 26 - 7 percent favorability.
"Those numbers indicate that Portman may have the more growth potential of the two," said Brown. "On all these measures, Portman does better than Fisher among independents, often a key to Ohio elections. But both men have so far to go to introduce themselves to the electorate that money could be a very important factor in the race. Money, via television commercials, buys name recognition."
President Obama's Approval
Obama gets a 53 - 40 percent thumbs down from independent voters. His approval rating is 79 - 17 among Democrats while Republicans disapprove 84 - 13 percent. But Obama does get the edge, 40 - 33 percent, when Ohio voters decide whether he is a better president than George W. Bush.
The split in voters' views on Obama are reflected in the 46 - 48 percent split when voters are asked if they want the state's next U.S. Senator to support or oppose his policies.
The good news for Obama is that he gets a better grade than Gov. Ted Strickland in handling the economy, a 54 - 41 percent disapproval, compared to 54 - 33 percent disapproval for the Governor.
"Given Ohio's key position in the Electoral College, the White House needs to keep a sharp eye on the President's numbers in the Buckeye State. They aren't awful, but they aren't good either," said Brown.
Ohio's two U.S. Senators, Sherrod Brown and George Voinovich, get similar scores from the voters: Brown gets a 46 - 29 percent approval rating; Voinovich is at 48 - 31 percent.
From June 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,107 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
2. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 42% 6% 84% 37% 37% 46% 27% Portman 40 81 5 39 49 32 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 - DK/NA 17 13 9 21 11 21 17
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Data available upon request back to Feb 2009)
Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 24 Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 Fisher 42 40 41 37 36 42 37 Portman 40 37 37 40 39 31 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 17 21 21 21 24 26 26
5. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 28% 9% 48% 25% 28% 28% 20% Unfavorable 17 31 4 20 23 13 24 Hvn't hrd enough 54 60 47 53 48 58 55 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FAVORABLE..... High Low Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 24 Nov 12 May 6 Dec 10 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 28 27 27 26 25 37 23 Unfavorable 17 13 13 12 15 13 10 Hvn't hrd enough 54 59 60 61 58 48 66 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 1 1
6. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 26% 46% 9% 24% 34% 19% 36% Unfavorable 7 2 12 7 7 7 3 Hvn't hrd enough 66 51 78 68 58 73 61 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FAVORABLE..... High Low Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 24 Nov 12 Jun 30 Dec 10 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2010 2008 Favorable 26 25 25 25 22 26 12 Unfavorable 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 66 65 66 66 70 66 80 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
7. Is your opinion of - the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 38% 81% 9% 32% 43% 33% 54% Unfavorable 44 8 77 46 43 45 27 Hvn't hrd enough 13 7 11 15 10 16 13 REFUSED 5 4 3 7 4 6 6
TREND: Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 24 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 38 36 37 37 Unfavorable 44 44 45 46 Hvn't hrd enough 13 16 14 13 REFUSED 5 5 5 3
8. Is your opinion of - the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 42% 9% 84% 31% 33% 49% 26% Unfavorable 42 79 9 48 52 35 56 Hvn't hrd enough 11 6 6 14 9 12 12 REFUSED 5 7 1 7 7 4 6
TREND: Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 24 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 42 42 41 38 Unfavorable 42 43 45 50 Hvn't hrd enough 11 11 9 10 REFUSED 5 4 4 3
9. Is your opinion of - the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 31% 55% 9% 34% 42% 23% 47% Unfavorable 31 10 53 30 30 31 16 Hvn't hrd enough 37 35 38 35 27 44 36 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 24 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 31 38 35 32 Unfavorable 31 28 29 23 Hvn't hrd enough 37 32 35 43 REFUSED 1 1 1 2
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 46% 31% 67% 40% 45% 47% 37% Disapprove 29 46 8 35 38 22 37 DK/NA 25 23 25 24 17 31 26
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 24 May 6 Jul 7 Sep 15 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 Approve 46 45 45 43 52 41 48 Disapprove 29 31 30 30 24 29 33 DK/NA 25 24 25 26 24 30 20
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 48% 52% 49% 46% 51% 46% 49% Disapprove 31 35 28 32 35 28 30 DK/NA 21 13 23 23 15 26 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator? (High also 55% Feb 2009 / *Disapprove high also 36% Nov 2009)
APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 24 May 6 Dec 13 Mar 31 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009* 2006 2010** Approve 48 47 46 51 55 41 46 Disapprove 31 35 36 32 30 33 36 DK/NA 21 18 18 17 15 26 18
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's Lieutenant Governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 41% 26% 58% 39% 39% 42% 33% Disapprove 26 39 10 31 33 21 34 DK/NA 33 35 32 30 28 37 33
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's Lieutenant Governor? (*Low also 39% Nov 2009 & Jul 2009)
APPROVE....... High Low Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 24 Nov 12 May 6 Feb 24 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2010* Approve 41 42 43 39 39 49 39 Disapprove 26 27 23 22 23 17 22 DK/NA 33 30 35 39 37 33 39
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 45% 13% 79% 40% 41% 48% 26% Disapprove 49 84 17 53 55 45 70 DK/NA 6 3 4 7 4 8 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
APPROVE....... High Low Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 12 Feb 6 Feb 23 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2010 Approve 45 45 47 44 45 67 44 Disapprove 49 50 48 52 50 16 52 DK/NA 6 5 5 5 5 17 5
16. Do you think Barack Obama has been a better President than George W. Bush, worse, or about the same as President Bush?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Better 40% 5% 75% 35% 35% 44% 21% Worse 33 73 5 30 40 28 51 About the same 24 20 15 33 24 24 25 DK/NA 3 2 5 2 2 4 3
TREND: Do you think Barack Obama has been a better President than George W. Bush, worse, or about the same as President Bush?
Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 2010 2010 2010 Better 40 44 45 Worse 33 34 32 About the same 24 19 20 DK/NA 3 3 3
17. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Ohio generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 46% 11% 85% 41% 41% 50% 24% Oppose 48 86 11 50 54 43 69 DK/NA 6 3 4 9 5 7 6
TREND: Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Ohio generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies?
Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 2010 2010 2010 Support 46 45 44 Oppose 48 48 46 DK/NA 6 7 10
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 33% 17% 54% 32% 33% 34% 26% Disapprove 54 73 27 61 57 51 65 DK/NA 13 9 19 8 10 15 9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy? (*Low also 33% Nov 2009, Sep 2009 & Jul 2009)
APPROVE....... High Low Jun 29 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 11 Feb 5 Jun 29 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2010* Approve 33 36 35 35 33 44 33 Disapprove 54 53 52 53 52 37 54 DK/NA 13 11 13 12 15 19 13
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 41% 10% 75% 36% 36% 46% 24% Disapprove 54 87 21 59 60 50 75 DK/NA 5 3 4 5 4 5 1
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
APPROVE....... High Low Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 12 Feb 6 Feb 23 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2010 Approve 41 42 40 39 42 58 39 Disapprove 54 55 54 57 53 21 57 DK/NA 5 3 6 4 5 21 4
28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Lee Fisher or Rob Portman?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 30% 6% 55% 27% 28% 31% 21% Portman 33 62 12 32 44 24 41 NO DIFF(VOL) 5 3 3 7 5 5 6 DK/NA 33 29 31 34 23 41 32
29. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values, Lee Fisher or Rob Portman?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 31% 7% 58% 26% 29% 33% 23% Portman 36 67 12 34 47 27 45 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 2 2 5 3 4 5 DK/NA 30 24 27 34 22 37 27
30. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Right thing 46% 66% 32% 46% 58% 36% 52% Shld not be inv 48 27 61 50 38 56 41 DK/NA 6 7 6 4 4 8 8
TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 Feb 23 Nov 12 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 Right thing 46 48 50 55 48 Shouldn't be inv 48 45 43 39 43 DK/NA 6 7 7 6 9
31. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal health care overhaul?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 36% 6% 68% 31% 33% 38% 19% Disapprove 55 88 23 60 59 51 73 DK/NA 9 5 9 9 8 10 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the federal health care overhaul?
Jun 30 Apr 29 2010 2010 Approve 36 38 Disapprove 55 55 DK/NA 9 7
32. If your member of Congress voted for the health care overhaul passed by Congress, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her in November, less likely, or not make a difference?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 22% 4% 43% 20% 23% 21% 8% Less likely 38 72 11 38 43 33 55 No difference 36 21 42 38 30 41 30 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 4 4 6
TREND: If your member of Congress voted for the health care overhaul just passed by Congress, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her in November, less likely, or not make a difference?
Jun 30 Apr 29 2010 2010 More likely 22 22 Less likely 38 39 No difference 36 36 DK/NA 4 3
33. If you agreed with a candidate for Congress on other issues, but disagreed on the health care overhaul, do you think you could still vote for that candidate or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 51% 43% 63% 46% 46% 54% 44% No 39 47 26 47 46 34 47 DK/NA 10 9 11 8 8 12 9
TREND: If you agreed with a candidate for Congress on other issues, but completely disagreed on the health care overhaul, do you think you could still vote for that candidate or not? (*disagreed on the issue of health care reform)
Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 2010 2010 2010* Yes 51 49 46 No 39 37 43 DK/NA 10 14 11
34. Attorneys general from several states have said they will sue to block the recently passed healthcare overhaul plan. Do you think filing a lawsuit to stop the plan from taking effect is a good idea or a bad idea?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 37% 62% 11% 41% 46% 28% 47% Bad idea 53 29 80 50 46 59 38 DK/NA 10 10 9 9 7 13 15
TREND: Attorneys general from several states have said they will sue to block the recently passed healthcare overhaul plan. Do you think filing a lawsuit to stop the plan from taking effect is a good idea or a bad idea?
Jun 30 Apr 29 Mar 31 2010 2010 2010 Good idea 37 41 39 Bad idea 53 52 54 DK/NA 10 6 7