Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * November 8, 2007 * Giuliani Close To Clinton In P - Quinnipiac University

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November 8, 2007 - Giuliani Close To Clinton In Pennsylvania Pres Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Despite Big Primary Lead, Clinton Has Big Negatives

Word format Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has narrowed the gap with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton among Pennsylvania voters, getting 43 percent to Sen. Clinton's 45 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 48 - 42 percent Clinton lead over Giuliani in an October 10 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
If Clinton is the Democratic candidate for President, 36 percent of Pennsylvania voters say they would support her, with 21 percent who might support her and 41 percent who say they would not vote for her under any circumstances. If Giuliani gets the Republican nod, 27 percent say they would vote for him, with 36 percent who might vote for him and 33 percent who say they won't vote for him under any circumstances.
Fifty-four percent of Pennsylvania voters would be less likely to vote for a presidential candidate who supports issuing driver's licenses to illegal immigrants, with only 3 percent who would be more likely and 39 percent who say it wouldn't affect their vote.
"Sen. Hillary Clinton has had a rough couple of weeks on the campaign trail and her numbers show it, dropping slightly in Pennsylvania. But she is still the strongest candidate in the field and holds the slimmest of edges among voters that both 9/11 hero Rudolph Giuliani and War hero Sen. John McCain will have a hard time overcoming," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"This poll shows that there is a hard core of just over 40 percent who are unlikely to vote for Sen. Clinton under any circumstances, but it takes just 50 percent plus one to win the election."
"Democratic victories in the past few presidential elections have brought into question Pennsylvania's status as a key battleground state, but Mayor Giuliani or Sen. McCain could buck that trend if either is the Republican candidate," Richards added.
In other head to head matchups:
Clinton gets 45 percent to 43 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain. She beats Thompson 50 - 36 percent and Romney 51 -36 percent; Giuliani beats Obama 45 - 39 percent and gets 43 percent to Edwards' 42 percent.
Clinton is running away with the Democratic primary, leading Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 48 - 15 percent, up from 41 - 14 percent October 10. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gets 11 percent.
Giuliani leads the Republican field with 29 percent, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain with 12 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson with 11 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 7 percent.
Pennsylvania voters give Giuliani a 45 - 28 percent favorability rating. Clinton gets a 47 - 43 percent favorability rating.
Clinton has the Democratic nomination "locked up," 36 percent of Pennsylvania voters, including 34 percent of Democrats, say.
Only 15 percent of voters, including 12 percent of Republicans, say Giuliani has the Republican nomination "locked up."
Pennsylvania voters disapprove 66 - 29 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. But voters disagree 61 - 34 percent with the assumption that no Republican can win next year's presidential election because of President Bush and the war in Iraq. Democrats agree 50 - 44 percent, while Republicans disagree 77 - 20 percent and independent voters disagree 62 - 32 percent.
From October 31 - November 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,019 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The survey includes 406 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points, and 443 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Biden 3% 3% 3% Clinton 48 40 53 Dodd - - - Edwards 11 16 8 Gravel - - - Kucinich 1 3 - Obama 15 18 14 Richardson 2 3 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 4 DK/NA 15 13 16
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................................. Nov 8 Oct 10 Aug 23 Aug 8 Jun 27 May 31 Apr 26 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Biden 3 5 4 2 5 3 2 Clark na na na na na - - Clinton 48 41 42 35 32 33 36 Dodd - - - - 1 - - Edwards 11 11 8 10 7 11 13 Gore na na 13 12 16 16 14 Gravel - - - - - - - Kucinich 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 Obama 15 14 12 19 18 13 14 Richardson 2 3 1 2 2 3 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 2 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 15 18 16 15 15 16 16
1a. (If express choice) How likely is it that you could change your mind - Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all? ?
Tot Men Wom Very likely 11% 13% 9% Smwht likely 41 44 38 Not too likely 20 16 22 Not likely at all 28 26 30 DK/NA 1 1 1
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Giuliani 29% 28% 31% Huckabee 6 8 4 Hunter 1 - 1 McCain 12 10 13 Paul 4 6 2 Romney 7 9 5 Tancredo - - - Thompson, F. 11 14 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 5 DK/NA 23 17 29
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................................ Nov 8 Oct 10 Aug 23 Aug 8 Jun 27 May 31 Apr 26 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Brownback na - 2 1 1 1 1 Gilmore na na na - 1 - - Gingrich na na 9 9 5 8 10 Giuliani 29 32 31 29 29 28 29 Hagel na na na na na - 1 Huckabee 6 2 2 1 1 1 2 Hunter 1 1 - 1 - - - McCain 12 13 13 16 15 11 17 Pataki na na na na na 1 1 Paul 4 4 2 3 - 1 - Romney 7 8 7 3 3 9 5 Tancredo - - 1 - - 1 - Thompson, F. 11 13 8 14 15 10 6 Thompson, T. na na na 1 1 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 4 3 3 3 DK/NA 23 20 23 16 24 23 21
2a. (If express choice) How likely is it that you could change your mind - Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
Tot Men Wom Very likely 14% 13% 15% Smwht likely 51 52 51 Not too likely 19 20 18 Not likely at all 14 14 14 DK/NA 2 - 3
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 45% 8% 80% 42% 39% 50% Giuliani 43 83 11 41 50 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 5 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 4 3 3 DK/NA 7 4 6 9 6 8
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 8 Oct 10 Aug 23 Aug 8 Jun 27 May 31 Apr 26 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 45 48 46 45 45 43 43 Giuliani 43 42 44 44 45 47 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 7 5 6 6 5 6 6
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 39% 12% 63% 42% 41% 38% Giuliani 45 75 23 38 47 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 5 6 4 5 DK/NA 10 9 9 10 6 13
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 8 Oct 10 Aug 23 Aug 8 Jun 27 May 31 Apr 26 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 39 43 40 39 43 40 41 Giuliani 45 45 45 45 44 45 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 10 7 9 10 9 10 12
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Edwards 42% 11% 69% 43% 42% 42% Giuliani 43 75 18 41 46 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 3 4 3 5 DK/NA 9 9 9 9 7 11
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 8 Oct 10 Aug 23 Mar 29 Mar 7 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Edwards 42 43 43 39 35 Giuliani 43 44 45 48 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 2 2 DK/NA 9 9 7 9 9
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 45% 8% 78% 41% 37% 52% McCain 43 82 12 44 51 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 5 5 3 DK/NA 7 4 6 8 5 8
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 8 Oct 10 Aug 23 Jun 27 May 31 Apr 26 Mar 29 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 45 48 47 46 45 43 44 McCain 43 41 41 42 43 45 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 3 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 3 4 2 3 DK/NA 7 5 7 6 7 8 8
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 50% 12% 81% 51% 44% 55% Thompson 36 74 8 32 42 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 7 3 6 6 5 DK/NA 7 5 7 7 6 8
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 8 Oct 10 Aug 23 Aug 8 Jun 27 May 31 Apr 26 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 50 50 50 50 49 50 47 Thompson, F. 36 39 36 38 38 36 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 3 3 2 3 3 DK/NA 7 6 8 8 8 9 12
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 51% 11% 84% 52% 44% 56% Romney 36 74 7 32 41 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 6 3 6 5 4 DK/NA 7 7 5 8 7 8
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 8 Oct 10 Aug 23 Mar 29 Mar 7 Feb 8 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 51 49 50 49 46 53 Romney 36 37 35 35 37 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 4 3 3 2 DK/NA 7 8 9 11 11 9
9. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 47% 13% 80% 44% 41% 53% Unfavorable 43 83 12 42 51 37 Hvn't hrd enough 8 3 7 12 7 8 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Nov 8 Oct 10 Aug 23 Aug 8 Jun 27 May 31 Apr 26 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 47 51 51 51 48 50 48 Unfavorable 43 42 41 40 42 44 42 Hvn't hrd enough 8 4 6 5 7 5 7 REFUSED 2 3 2 3 3 2 3
10. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 45% 63% 30% 45% 47% 43% Unfavorable 28 12 39 31 31 25 Hvn't hrd enough 24 20 29 20 18 29 REFUSED 4 6 1 5 4 4
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Nov 8 Oct 10 Aug 23 Aug 8 Jun 27 May 31 Apr 26 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 45 51 52 54 53 53 57 Unfavorable 28 30 28 25 27 28 22 Hvn't hrd enough 24 16 17 17 17 17 18 REFUSED 4 3 4 3 3 2 3
11. Do you think Hillary Clinton has the Democratic nomination for President locked up?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 36% 39% 34% 35% 37% 35% No 53 50 56 56 54 52 DK/NA 11 11 10 9 8 13
12. Do you think Rudy Giuliani has the Republican nomination for President locked up?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 15% 12% 16% 15% 13% 16% No 72 78 67 76 77 69 DK/NA 13 10 17 8 10 16
13. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate for President, would you say you would vote for her, you might vote for her, or you would not vote for her under any circumstances?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Would vote for her 36% 9% 67% 29% 28% 44% Might vote for her 21 9 24 31 24 18 W'Not vote for her 41 82 8 37 46 36 DK/NA 2 - 1 3 2 2
14. If Rudy Giuliani were the Republican candidate for President, would you say you would vote for him, you might vote for him, or you would not vote for him under any circumstances?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Would vote for him 27% 53% 11% 19% 30% 24% Might vote for him 36 33 32 44 35 38 W'Not vote for him 33 10 53 32 31 34 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 4 4
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 54% 48% 62% 56% 54% 55% Disapprove 31 36 26 34 36 27 DK/NA 14 17 12 10 10 18
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also 60% on 5/22/2003 & 2/21/2003)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 8 Aug 22 May 30 Mar 28 Feb 7 Jul 13 Apr 22 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2005* 2004 Approve 54 58 56 59 59 60 47 Disapprove 31 32 34 29 33 30 36 DK/NA 14 10 11 12 8 10 17
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 49% 42% 57% 51% 48% 50% Disapprove 21 29 15 19 24 18 DK/NA 30 29 28 30 28 32
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? (* Also 49% on 8/22/07 & 2/7/2007)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 8 Aug 22 May 30 Mar 28 Feb 7 Nov 8 Mar 28 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007* 2007 Approve 49 49 47 46 49 49 46 Disapprove 21 23 21 18 19 21 18 DK/NA 30 28 32 35 32 30 35
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 29% 63% 5% 22% 31% 28% Disapprove 66 31 91 74 65 66 DK/NA 5 7 4 4 5 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? (* Also 29% on 5/31/07)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 8 Aug 23 May 31 Mar 29 Feb 8 Jun 5 Nov 8 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2002 2007* Approve 29 30 29 33 33 73 29 Disapprove 66 67 67 62 62 21 66 DK/NA 5 3 4 5 4 6 5
20. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: It doesn't make any difference who the Republicans nominate for President because the Democrats are going to win because of President Bush and the war in Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 34% 20% 50% 32% 34% 34% Disagree 61 77 44 62 62 60 DK/NA 5 3 7 6 4 6