Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * October 1, 2009 * Pennsylvania Senate Seesaw Tip - Quinnipiac University

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October 1, 2009 - Pennsylvania Senate Seesaw Tips To Toomey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama's Approval Drops Below 50 Percent

Word format The seesaw 2010 Senate race in Pennsylvania tips to Republican Pat Toomey, who has 43 percent to recently converted Democrat Sen. Arlen Specter's 42 percent, too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This reverses a 45 - 44 percent tip to Sen. Specter July 22 and wipes out a 20-point Specter lead May 4, in the flush of Specter's switch from Republican to Democrat to escape a primary battle with Toomey.
President Barack Obama's job approval rating in the Keystone State has dropped to a new low, 49 - 42 percent, the first time he has been under 50 percent in the state, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
The good news for Sen. Specter, who was first elected to the Senate as a Republican in 1980, is that he remains far ahead of his Democratic primary challenger, U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak from southeastern Pennsylvania, 44 - 25 percent.
But Sestak runs almost as well as Specter against Toomey, trailing the Republican only 38 - 35 percent.
"Toomey and Specter are neck and neck in what could be a 13-month horse race. The challenger's ability to close the 53 - 33 percent gap in Quinnipiac University's May 4 poll is evidence that the longtime senator's decision to switch parties to avoid a potential loss to Toomey in a GOP primary may not be the magic bullet for reelection that he had hoped it would be," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Specter has more than enough time to reverse his fortunes, but being tied with the relatively unknown Toomey is evidence that this election has become a referendum on Specter."
Only 44 percent of voters approve of Specter's job performance, while 48 percent disapprove. Only 37 percent feel that Specter deserves reelection, compared to 52 percent who say he does not deserve a fifth term. These are his worst scores for both measures.
Specter is viewed favorably by 42 percent of voters, unfavorably by 46 percent.
Toomey gets a 34 - 12 percent favorability, but he is relatively unknown as 53 percent do not know enough about him to form an opinion.
"Pat Toomey is pretty much a blank slate to half of the state's voters and that is both his opportunity and his potential Achilles Heel," said Brown. "Given his own shortcomings in the public eye, the only way for Sen. Specter to defeat Toomey is to convince that huge group of voters that they won't like what they find out about Toomey. There will be a race to define Pat Toomey to Pennsylvanians and that race will likely determine who wins the Senate seat.
"Unless Toomey shoots himself in the foot, Specter will have to do it for him by running a strongly negative campaign."
The drop in President Obama's approval rating, from 56 - 37 percent in a July 22 Quinnipiac University poll of Pennsylvanian voters, is similar to drops that have occurred in other states, including neighboring Ohio. The President's approval rating on the economy is split 46 - 47 percent, down from a positive 50 - 43 percent in July. His rating on health care is a decidedly negative 39 - 53 percent. The question was not asked in July.
"As is occurring elsewhere around the country, the President's declining job approval seems tied to the economy and health care," said Brown. "He is getting more of the blame as the recession lingers and the furor over his health-care plan is weighing on his overall rating."
Sen. Bob Casey remains the most popular statewide office-holder in Pennsylvania, with a 53 - 29 percent positive job approval rating.
From September 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,100 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Specter 44% 46% 43% Sestak 25 30 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 - DK/NA 28 20 33
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS....... Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 2009 2009 2009 Specter 44 55 50 Sestak 25 23 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 DK/NA 28 19 27
4. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Specter 42% 14% 73% 38% 41% 43% 48% Toomey 43 78 12 41 48 39 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 13 7 14 18 10 16 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Specter 45% 68% 40% 49% 40% 30% 30% Toomey 43 19 47 39 46 55 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 1 1 - - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 2 DK/NA 8 12 13 11 14 13 17
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 Specter 42 45 46 53 Toomey 43 44 37 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 3 1 DK/NA 13 10 14 10
5. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Sestak 35% 6% 68% 29% 34% 35% 45% Toomey 38 74 8 34 45 32 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 2 1 2 DK/NA 25 18 23 33 19 31 20 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Sestak 37% 59% 33% 40% 18% 30% 25% Toomey 29 24 47 38 42 44 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 1 - 1 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 30 17 18 19 38 21 32
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 2009 2009 2009 Sestak 35 35 37 Toomey 38 39 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 3 DK/NA 25 23 23
8. Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 42% 18% 67% 41% 41% 43% 38% Unfavorable 46 76 20 45 52 41 51 Hvn't hrd enough 10 5 11 12 6 13 9 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 36% 62% 40% 49% 42% 35% 33% Unfavorable 49 20 49 47 47 56 53 Hvn't hrd enough 12 17 11 2 9 8 12 REFUSED 3 1 - 2 2 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Nov 26 Aug 5 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 Favorable 42 45 46 52 45 56 55 Unfavorable 46 44 39 34 31 23 26 Hvn't hrd enough 10 9 14 12 21 19 16 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
9. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 34% 57% 17% 29% 42% 26% 34% Unfavorable 12 4 18 13 14 10 12 Hvn't hrd enough 53 37 64 57 44 62 54 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 - 2 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 29% 23% 49% 34% 33% 38% 33% Unfavorable 14 9 13 17 7 14 7 Hvn't hrd enough 57 66 38 49 57 48 57 REFUSED - 2 - - 3 - 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 34 34 27 20 14 Unfavorable 12 10 11 13 6 Hvn't hrd enough 53 56 61 67 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2
10. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 21% 13% 25% 28% 25% 17% 21% Unfavorable 8 13 3 7 11 4 8 Hvn't hrd enough 70 72 72 64 63 77 68 REFUSED 2 3 - 2 2 1 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 18% 25% 20% 45% 11% 13% 10% Unfavorable 5 12 4 17 4 2 5 Hvn't hrd enough 73 63 72 38 85 83 85 REFUSED 4 - 4 1 - 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 21 23 18 Unfavorable 8 7 5 Hvn't hrd enough 70 69 76 REFUSED 2 1 -
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 44% 19% 69% 43% 41% 46% 47% Disapprove 48 77 21 47 54 42 48 DK/NA 9 3 10 11 6 11 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 38% 67% 45% 50% 43% 33% 34% Disapprove 49 23 51 47 48 59 54 DK/NA 13 10 4 4 9 8 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Nov 26 Oct 1 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 Approve 44 47 51 56 52 62 44 Disapprove 48 46 39 36 33 25 48 DK/NA 9 7 9 8 15 13 9
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 53% 39% 69% 54% 54% 53% 55% Disapprove 29 47 12 27 33 25 36 DK/NA 18 14 19 19 13 23 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 52% 58% 59% 61% 51% 43% 48% Disapprove 36 18 32 23 33 41 26 DK/NA 11 24 8 16 16 16 26
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 May 28 Mar 28 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 Approve 53 53 56 55 52 56 46 Disapprove 29 25 21 21 23 21 18 DK/NA 18 21 23 24 25 23 35
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 49% 17% 81% 50% 44% 54% 54% Disapprove 42 74 12 39 47 37 44 DK/NA 9 10 8 11 9 10 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 54% 68% 52% 54% 41% 37% 41% Disapprove 34 17 43 41 55 55 45 DK/NA 12 15 5 5 3 8 14
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 49 56 62 66 61 63 Disapprove 42 37 31 29 30 22 DK/NA 9 7 7 5 9 15
24. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes/Deserves 37% 15% 60% 34% 35% 39% 38% No/Does not 52 81 25 53 57 48 50 DK/NA 11 4 14 13 9 13 11 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves 40% 53% 41% 39% 33% 29% 30% No/Does not 53 28 53 51 56 58 60 DK/NA 7 19 6 10 12 13 11
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Oct 1 Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Yes/Deserves 37 40 42 49 38 40 No/Does not 52 49 43 41 41 43 DK/NA 11 11 15 10 20 17
25. Does President Obama's support of Arlen Specter for United States Senator make you more likely to vote for Specter, less likely to vote for Specter, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds More likely 12% 2% 24% 11% 9% 15% 15% Less likely 18 34 4 16 20 17 21 Doesn't make diff 68 62 71 72 70 66 64 DK/NA 2 3 2 1 1 3 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl More likely 20% 23% 5% 10% 13% 10% 9% Less likely 17 9 17 21 19 27 17 Doesn't make diff 61 69 76 68 68 63 69 DK/NA 2 - 2 - 1 1 5
27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 46% 18% 77% 45% 42% 51% 50% Disapprove 47 77 16 48 53 41 45 DK/NA 7 5 7 7 5 8 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 49% 70% 46% 47% 37% 32% 43% Disapprove 42 27 47 49 56 58 50 DK/NA 10 3 7 4 7 9 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Oct 1 Jul 22 Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 46 50 56 59 Disapprove 47 43 36 26 DK/NA 7 7 8 16
29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - health care?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 39% 11% 67% 40% 38% 40% 43% Disapprove 53 84 24 51 55 52 52 DK/NA 8 4 9 9 7 8 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 38% 58% 38% 43% 30% 34% 33% Disapprove 50 37 53 52 66 59 58 DK/NA 11 5 9 6 4 7 9
30. Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care reform plan?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Support 41% 13% 73% 40% 42% 40% 46% Oppose 47 81 15 44 48 46 49 DK/NA 12 6 13 16 10 14 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Support 42% 69% 47% 42% 28% 29% 34% Oppose 48 20 42 43 63 56 54 DK/NA 10 11 11 14 9 14 12