Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * February 15, 2006 * Rendell Out Of Gate With 12-Po - Quinnipiac University

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February 15, 2006 - Rendell Out Of Gate With 12-Point Lead Over Swann, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Few Think Swann Has Experience To Be Gov

Democratic incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell starts his 2006 reelection campaign with a 48 - 36 percent lead over former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann, the leading Republican challenger in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
In this survey, conducted after Bill Scranton dropped out of race, Gov. Rendell leads Swann 74 - 15 percent among Democrats and 49 - 31 percent among independent voters, while Swann leads 64 - 22 percent among Republicans. Men back Rendell 52 - 35 percent, while women back him by a smaller 44 - 36 percent margin.
Rendell also leads Jim Panyard, former president of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers' Association, 55 - 22 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Only 26 percent of voters say Swann has the right kind of experience to be Governor, with 40 percent who say he doesn't have the experience and 34 percent undecided.
"Republican leaders may have anointed Lynn Swann their candidate for governor, but Pennsylvania voters are slow to jump on the Swann bandwagon. Despite all the Swann hoopla in the past month, he has failed to seriously narrow Gov. Rendell's double-digit lead," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Rank and file Republicans appear more reluctant than their leaders to back Swann; 22 percent are voting for Rendell at this point. And only about a quarter of all Pennsylvania voters say Swann has the right kind of experience to be governor," Richards added.
"Rendell, on the other hand, continues to run up huge margins over his GOP rival in Philadelphia and its suburbs - the stronghold that swept him into office last time."
Rendell has a 51 - 33 percent approval rate among Pennsylvania voters, virtually unchanged from December 13. He has a 40 - 24 percent favorability, with 25 percent mixed and 10 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Voters give Swann a 29 - 8 percent favorability rating, with 9 percent mixed and 52 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
In a Republican primary, Swann gets 56 percent to 10 percent for Panyard, with 30 percent undecided.
Voters say 51 - 30 percent that Rendell broke his campaign promise to lower property taxes, but only 19 percent say they will vote against him on this issue alone. Rendell bears "a lot" of the blame for the state's failure to lower property taxes, 22 percent of voters say, while 55 percent blame him "a little," and 16 percent don't blame him at all.
"The big worry for Rendell is property taxes. A majority of voters, including 43 percent of Democrats, feel he has broken his campaign promise to lower property taxes in his first term," Richards said.
From February 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,045 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 442 Republican voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 51% 32% 68% 52% 53% 49% Disapprove 33 52 19 29 35 32 DK/NA 16 16 13 20 12 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Approve 45% 73% 48% 62% 48% 38% 42% Disapprove 38 21 33 28 36 38 39 DK/NA 17 6 19 10 16 24 19
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? (* Also hit 54% on 2/20/2003) (** Also hit 46% on 4/22/2004, 3/18/2004 and 12/16/2003)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Jul 13 Oct 5 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004* 2005** Approve 51 51 46 47 49 54 46 Disapprove 33 35 38 39 34 30 38 DK/NA 16 14 16 14 18 15 16
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 33% 35% 31% 33% 33% 32% Disapprove 52 47 53 53 55 49 DK/NA 15 18 15 13 12 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Approve 26% 41% 38% 39% 30% 24% 30% Disapprove 59 47 43 48 63 51 54 DK/NA 15 12 19 13 7 25 16
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 15 Dec 8 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Apr 10 Oct 5 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2003 2005 Approve 33 30 26 37 40 49 26 Disapprove 52 57 60 47 39 24 60 DK/NA 15 13 14 16 21 27 14
3. Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 40% 24% 57% 39% 43% 37% Unfavorable 24 40 12 22 25 24 Mixed 25 28 20 29 25 26 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 11 8 7 13 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Favorable 33% 67% 39% 54% 27% 30% 29% Unfavorable 29 8 22 18 30 32 30 Mixed 28 19 20 26 32 17 30 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 18 2 11 18 10 REFUSED 1 - 2 - - 3 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 40 38 39 37 37 40 Unfavorable 24 27 29 29 25 26 Mixed 25 27 22 22 24 23 Haven't heard enough 10 8 11 11 14 10 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1
4. Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 29% 42% 21% 26% 32% 27% Unfavorable 8 6 13 5 13 4 Mixed 9 6 10 13 9 9 Hvn't hrd enough 52 46 55 53 45 58 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 1 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Favorable 43% 19% 26% 23% 36% 40% 27% Unfavorable 14 4 2 9 7 15 7 Mixed 13 16 9 5 11 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 29 59 62 60 46 35 58 REFUSED - 1 1 2 - 3 1
TREND: Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 29 28 26 26 25 30 Unfavorable 8 8 7 7 6 5 Mixed 9 9 9 7 9 6 Haven't heard enough 52 54 56 59 58 57 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 2 2
5. Is your opinion of former president of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers' Association Jim Panyard favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 2% 2% 1% 5% 3% 2% Unfavorable 2 1 3 3 4 1 Mixed 3 2 4 4 4 3 Hvn't hrd enough 92 94 91 88 88 95 REFUSED - - - 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Favorable 2% 3% 5% 1% 4% 2% 2% Unfavorable 1 2 - 1 5 - 4 Mixed 4 2 1 6 4 6 2 Hvn't hrd enough 93 93 93 91 87 91 92 REFUSED - - 1 1 - 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of former president of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers' Association Jim Panyard favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 2006 2005 2005 Favorable 2 4 2 Unfavorable 2 3 3 Mixed 3 3 3 Haven't heard enough 92 89 92 REFUSED - 1 1
6. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 48% 22% 74% 49% 52% 44% Swann 36 64 15 31 35 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 1 2 DK/NA 14 12 10 18 11 16 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Rendell 46% 79% 49% 60% 31% 39% 35% Swann 44 12 31 28 47 42 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 4 4 1 DK/NA 10 9 19 9 18 11 18
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Rendell 48 48 47 48 48 50 Swann 36 35 34 36 35 34 SMONE ELSE 1 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 14 14 15 13 14 13
7. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Jim Panyard the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 55% 27% 82% 56% 58% 51% Panyard 22 45 5 16 21 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 1 5 4 3 DK/NA 18 22 12 21 15 21 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Rendell 58% 81% 55% 63% 47% 51% 39% Panyard 21 9 25 22 25 19 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 1 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 3 4 4 5 4 DK/NA 17 9 17 10 24 22 26
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat, and Jim Panyard the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 2006 2005 2005 Rendell 55 53 53 Panyard 22 24 23 SMONE ELSE 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE 4 2 3 DK/NA 18 19 19
8. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Deserves reelection 49% 25% 71% 52% 51% 47% Does not 37 61 18 30 38 36 DK/NA 14 14 11 18 10 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Deserves reelection 44% 79% 48% 62% 39% 38% 36% Does not 41 15 36 29 45 41 48 DK/NA 15 6 16 9 16 21 17
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Deserves reelection 49 49 48 46 48 48 Does not deserve 37 40 41 41 38 38 DK/NA 14 12 11 14 14 14
9. Do you think Lynn Swann has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Pennsylvania or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 26% 31% 18% 30% 27% 25% No 40 32 47 41 46 34 DK/NA 34 36 35 29 27 41 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Yes 34% 19% 20% 21% 30% 30% 28% No 41 44 35 43 41 45 34 DK/NA 24 37 45 36 29 25 38
10. Would you vote against Lynn Swann for Governor just because he has never held public office?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 17% 10% 26% 14% 22% 12% No 77 84 70 79 74 80 DK/NA 6 6 4 7 4 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Yes 16% 29% 17% 16% 13% 21% 12% No 83 64 76 74 85 75 83 DK/NA 1 7 7 10 2 4 5
11. Do you think Governor Ed Rendell has broken a campaign promise to lower property taxes or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 51% 61% 43% 48% 51% 51% No 30 21 37 33 34 26 DK/NA 19 18 20 19 15 23 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Yes 48% 44% 53% 47% 54% 60% 53% No 29 42 23 34 31 19 29 DK/NA 24 15 25 19 15 21 18
12. Would you vote against Ed Rendell for governor just because property taxes have not been lowered significantly in Pennsylvania since he became Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 19% 25% 14% 17% 23% 16% No 76 70 81 80 75 78 DK/NA 5 5 6 3 3 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central Yes 15% 16% 22% 17% 25% 22% 19% No 83 78 72 80 74 71 74 DK/NA 2 7 6 2 1 7 7
13. How much do you blame Governor Ed Rendell for the failure of Pennsylvania to enact meaningful property tax reductions since he became governor? A lot, a little, or not at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 22% 30% 13% 22% 24% 20% A little 55 54 60 52 53 56 Not at all 16 12 20 19 17 16 DK/NA 7 4 8 7 6 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central A lot 23% 19% 27% 14% 29% 26% 23% A little 56 48 54 60 56 56 52 Not at all 14 25 16 18 11 12 16 DK/NA 8 8 2 7 4 6 9
14. (If registered republican)If the 2006 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Lynn Swann and Jim Panyard for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Swann 56% 58% 55% Panyard 10 12 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 DK/NA 30 26 34