Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * April 5, 2006 * Rendell Leads Swann By 10 Poin - Quinnipiac University

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April 5, 2006 - Rendell Leads Swann By 10 Points In Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Blacks Back Rendell 6 - 1

Democratic incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell leads Republican challenger Lynn Swann, the former Pittsburgh Steeler, 47 - 37 percent in his race for reelection, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is virtually unchanged from the results of a February 15 poll.
In this survey, Gov. Rendell leads Swann 74 - 15 percent among Democrats and 50 - 28 percent among independent voters. Swann leads 63 - 21 percent among Republicans. Men back Rendell 50 - 35 percent, while women back him 45 - 38 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
A separate sample of black registered voters showed Rendell ahead of Swann 74 - 12 percent with 12 percent undecided.
"Gov. Rendell continues to lead Lynn Swann by a double-digit margin even though both his approval rating and favorability have dropped. Mr. Swann's favorable rating also has dropped slightly - likely because of his fumbles in answering questions on key issues - but half the voters of Pennsylvania still say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"While maintaining strength in the West, Mr. Swann has failed to penetrate Rendell's stronghold in Philadelphia and its suburbs. The governor is vulnerable on the state budget and related tax issues," Richards added.
"To make a significant dent in Rendell's historical black base, Swann is going to have to pull 40 to 50 percent of the black vote. In the last election, Sen. Arlen Specter, who ran as a Republican, got about 25 percent of the black vote according to the exit polls, and that is about as high as a GOP candidate has scored in the state. At this point Swann is getting about half of what Specter got."
Only 21 percent of voters say Swann has the right kind of experience to be Governor, down from 26 percent February 15. Another 43 percent say he doesn't have the experience and 36 percent are undecided.
But 75 percent of voters say a black candidate such as Swann can get enough support from white voters to be elected Governor of Pennsylvania.
Rendell has a 46 - 37 percent approval rating among Pennsylvania voters, down from 51 - 33 percent February 15. He has a 35 - 27 percent favorability, with 24 percent mixed and 13 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Voters give Swann a 23 - 12 percent favorability rating, with 11 percent mixed and 52 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Voters disapprove 45 - 35 percent of the way Rendell is handling the state budget. Looking at state and local taxes, Pennsylvania voters say:
47 - 40 percent to raise state income taxes, if it means lowering property taxes; 50 - 44 percent to raise state sales taxes, if it means lowering property taxes; 52 - 38 percent against raising local income taxes to lower property taxes.
Voters support 59 - 34 percent requiring local school districts to accept new state money from slot machines as part of a program to lower property taxes.
From March 28 - April 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,354 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The separate survey included 451 black voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Approve 46 32 59 48 44 71 Disapprove 37 54 24 31 39 15 DK/NA 17 15 17 21 17 14 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 42 59 46 55 37 43 38 Disapprove 43 27 30 30 46 42 44 DK/NA 15 14 25 15 17 15 18
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? (* Also hit 54% on 2/20/2003) (** Also hit 46% on 10/5/2005, 4/22/2004, 3/18/2004 and 12/16/2003)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Jul 13 Apr 5 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2004* 2006** Approve 46 51 51 46 47 54 46 Disapprove 37 33 35 38 39 30 37 DK/NA 17 16 14 16 14 15 17
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Approve 29 32 29 24 28 37 Disapprove 55 51 56 57 55 47 DK/NA 16 16 15 19 17 16 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 22 30 34 35 22 23 30 Disapprove 58 59 46 51 67 62 50 DK/NA 20 11 20 14 11 14 20
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 8 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 10 Oct 5 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2003 2005 Approve 29 33 30 26 37 49 26 Disapprove 55 52 57 60 47 24 60 DK/NA 16 15 13 14 16 27 14
6. Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Favorable 35 23 49 34 32 61 Unfavorable 27 42 13 23 28 8 Mixed 24 24 24 28 26 17 Hvn't hrd enough 13 11 13 16 13 13 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 30 68 32 46 20 25 26 Unfavorable 37 13 23 22 30 31 31 Mixed 24 12 29 21 29 29 27 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 15 11 21 13 16 REFUSED - 1 - - 1 3 -
TREND: Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 35 40 38 39 37 37 40 Unfavorable 27 24 27 29 29 25 26 Mixed 24 25 27 22 22 24 23 Haven't heard enough 13 10 8 11 11 14 10 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 1
7. Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Favorable 23 35 15 18 24 19 Unfavorable 12 6 18 16 11 14 Mixed 11 10 12 12 12 13 Hvn't hrd enough 52 49 54 54 52 52 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 36 13 19 20 28 33 21 Unfavorable 11 22 10 14 4 12 11 Mixed 19 7 9 12 14 11 10 Hvn't hrd enough 34 57 60 52 54 42 57 REFUSED - - 2 2 - 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 23 29 28 26 26 25 30 Unfavorable 12 8 8 7 7 6 5 Mixed 11 9 9 9 7 9 6 Haven't heard enough 52 52 54 56 59 58 57 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1 2 2
8. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Rendell 47 21 74 50 45 74 Swann 37 63 15 28 39 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 4 2 1 DK/NA 12 13 8 15 13 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 39 79 45 54 33 39 42 Swann 46 10 40 28 54 45 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - 3 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 2 2 - 3 DK/NA 12 7 14 14 11 14 13
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Rendell 47 48 48 47 48 48 50 Swann 37 36 35 34 36 35 34 SMONE ELSE 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 12 14 14 15 13 14 13
9. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Yes/Deserves reelection 46 24 68 49 44 71 No/Does not 40 61 22 36 42 17 DK/NA 14 15 10 15 14 13 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves reelection 45 73 42 53 35 32 42 No/Does not 43 22 40 32 45 53 46 DK/NA 12 5 18 15 19 15 12
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Deserves reelection 46 49 49 48 46 48 48 Does not deserve 40 37 40 41 41 38 38 DK/NA 14 14 12 11 14 14 14
23. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Very satisfied 4 3 6 2 3 6 Smwht satisfied 50 47 51 53 51 46 Smwht dissatisfied 29 35 26 28 30 28 Very dissatisfied 14 12 16 15 13 18 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 2 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied 3 10 4 4 2 2 3 Smwht satisfied 50 46 56 58 51 38 49 Smwht dissatisfied 30 20 26 28 31 40 32 Very dissatisfied 17 20 11 10 16 16 15 DK/NA - 4 3 1 - 4 2
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Apr 5 Feb 13 Dec 8 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 Very satisfied 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Smwht satisfied 50 49 50 42 48 49 52 Smwht dissatisfied 29 30 33 33 32 30 28 Very dissatisifed 14 15 13 20 15 15 15 DK/NA 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
24. Do you think Lynn Swann has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Pennsylvania or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Yes 21 34 9 17 22 17 No 43 30 54 51 44 46 DK/NA 36 36 37 32 34 37 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 35 8 21 15 28 28 22 No 44 46 36 51 44 44 39 DK/NA 22 46 43 34 28 29 39
TREND: Do you think Lynn Swann has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Pennsylvania or not?
Apr 5 Feb 15 2006 2006 Yes 21 26 No 43 40 DK/NA 36 34
25. Judging from people you know or come in contact with, do you think a black candidate like Lynn Swann could get enough support from white voters to be elected governor, or do you think he wouldn't be able to get enough white support because he is black?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Yes/White support 75 83 66 76 78 43 No/Not enough 12 7 19 9 9 38 DK/NA 14 10 15 15 13 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/White support 78 55 73 74 84 84 76 No/Not enough 12 26 13 11 5 5 11 DK/NA 10 19 14 16 12 11 13
26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the state budget?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 35 25 46 36 39 32 Disapprove 45 57 33 46 45 45 DK/NA 19 18 21 18 15 23 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 31 52 35 43 22 31 31 Disapprove 56 29 44 38 57 49 48 DK/NA 13 19 21 19 21 20 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the state budget?
Apr 5 Jul 13 Apr 22 Oct 16 Aug 6 May 23 Apr 10 2006 2004 2004 2003 2003 2003 2003 Approve 35 45 31 39 42 38 37 Disapprove 45 38 43 41 40 44 37 DK/NA 19 17 26 20 18 18 25
27. Would you support raising state income taxes if it meant lowering property taxes?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 47 45 51 48 48 45 No 40 42 37 42 41 40 DK/NA 13 13 11 11 11 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 39 51 43 45 42 48 53 No 48 38 42 42 46 40 34 DK/NA 13 11 15 13 12 13 13
28. Would you support raising the state sales tax if it meant lowering property taxes?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 50 45 53 50 53 47 No 44 48 41 44 43 44 DK/NA 7 7 6 5 3 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 56 42 56 43 50 46 54 No 37 50 39 52 43 46 40 DK/NA 6 9 5 5 7 8 7
29. Would you support raising local income taxes if it meant lowering property taxes?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 38 34 43 37 40 37 No 52 56 48 52 54 51 DK/NA 10 10 9 10 7 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 34 35 37 32 48 39 43 No 53 56 55 59 40 54 47 DK/NA 13 9 8 9 12 7 10
30. Last year the governor and state legislature approved of a plan to use revenues from slot machines to lower property taxes but many school districts refused to go along with the plan. Do you support or oppose legislation that would require all school districts to accept new state money from slot machines as part of a program to lower property taxes?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 59 51 67 59 61 57 Oppose 34 43 26 35 33 35 DK/NA 7 6 8 5 5 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Support 61 66 55 62 60 63 53 Oppose 35 27 35 32 33 32 41 DK/NA 5 6 10 6 7 5 6