Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * May 12, 2006 * Rendell Opens 22-Point Lead Ov - Quinnipiac University

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May 12, 2006 - Rendell Opens 22-Point Lead Over Swann In Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Governor's Approval Bounces Back

Democratic incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell has opened up a 55 - 33 percent lead over Republican challenger Lynn Swann, the former Pittsburgh Steeler, in his race for reelection, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 47 - 37 percent Rendell lead in an April 5 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll.
In this latest survey, Gov. Rendell leads Swann 80 - 12 percent among Democrats and 58 - 26 percent among independent voters. Swann leads 61 - 25 percent among Republicans. Men back Rendell 52 - 37 percent, while women back him 58 - 28 percent.
Pennsylvania voters approve 55 - 31 percent of the job Rendell is doing, his highest approval ever and up from 46 - 37 percent April 5.
"Gov. Rendell's numbers have bounced back as voters see no compelling reason to vote against him for a second term and no compelling reason to vote for Lynn Swann to unseat him," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"'Teflon Ed' has come through another battle with the Legislature over property taxes looking like the good guy even if no meaningful tax reduction proposal was passed into law."
Rendell has a 43 - 24 percent favorability, with 22 percent mixed and 11 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Voters give Swann a 22 - 13 percent favorability rating, with 11 percent mixed and 53 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. These numbers are virtually unchanged since April 5.
"Swann's candidacy has yet to catch fire as a majority of voters - including a majority in his own Republican Party - say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. As long as 55 percent of Pennsylvania voters feel Gov. Rendell deserves re-election, he is going to be hard to beat," Richards added.
A total of 51 percent of Pennsylvania voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the state today, while 47 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied."
From May 2 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,487 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 55% 35% 71% 56% 54% 55% Disapprove 31 51 17 28 34 29 DK/NA 14 14 12 15 12 16 TABLE 008 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 49% 79% 56% 67% 47% 34% 47% Disapprove 37 13 27 20 38 46 40 DK/NA 14 8 17 13 15 20 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? (* Also hit 46% on 10/5/2005, 4/22/2004, 3/18/2004 and 12/16/2003)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 May 12 Apr 5 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2006 2006* Approve 55 46 51 51 46 55 46 Disapprove 31 37 33 35 38 31 37 DK/NA 14 17 16 14 16 14 17
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 31% 32% 32% 23% 28% 32% Disapprove 53 54 53 56 58 50 DK/NA 16 14 15 21 14 18 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 24% 46% 37% 35% 29% 18% 25% Disapprove 57 37 43 46 58 67 63 DK/NA 19 17 19 19 13 16 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 8 Oct 5 Apr 10 Oct 5 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2003 2005 Approve 31 29 33 30 26 49 26 Disapprove 53 55 52 57 60 24 60 DK/NA 16 16 15 13 14 27 14
6. Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 43% 24% 58% 43% 43% 42% Unfavorable 24 42 10 18 28 20 Mixed 22 21 20 28 19 24 Hvn't hrd enough 11 13 11 10 9 13 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 33% 73% 42% 57% 30% 24% 34% Unfavorable 24 10 21 15 22 36 33 Mixed 30 10 23 19 28 22 22 Hvn't hrd enough 12 6 13 9 18 16 11 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 2 -
TREND: Is your opinion of Governor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 43 35 40 38 39 37 37 Unfavorable 24 27 24 27 29 29 25 Mixed 22 24 25 27 22 22 24 Haven't heard enough 11 13 10 8 11 11 14 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1 1
7. Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 22% 34% 14% 20% 27% 19% Unfavorable 13 5 19 14 16 10 Mixed 11 9 11 14 11 10 Hvn't hrd enough 53 51 54 50 44 60 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 36% 13% 19% 17% 28% 31% 21% Unfavorable 14 16 13 14 9 15 11 Mixed 14 7 11 10 11 13 10 Hvn't hrd enough 35 60 55 59 51 42 57 REFUSED 1 4 3 1 1 - -
TREND: Is your opinion of former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 Favorable 22 23 29 28 26 26 25 Unfavorable 13 12 8 8 7 7 6 Mixed 11 11 9 9 9 7 9 Haven't heard enough 53 52 52 54 56 59 58 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 2
8. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 55% 25% 80% 58% 52% 58% Swann 33 61 12 26 37 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 10 12 6 12 9 11 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 48% 83% 60% 67% 46% 38% 45% Swann 40 11 27 23 36 48 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 11 4 10 7 16 11 11
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 Rendell 55 47 48 48 47 48 48 Swann 33 37 36 35 34 36 35 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 10 12 14 14 15 13 14
9. (If candidate choice q8) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
Chose Gov Choice Q8 CandQ8 ER LS Made up 63% 63% 64% Might change 34 34 35 DK/NA 3 3 2
10a. (If Rendell q8) Is your vote more for Rendell or more against Swann?
Rendell Q8 For Rendell 82% Against Swann 10 DK/NA 8
10b. (If Swann q8) Is your vote more for Swann or more against Rendell?
Swann Q8 For Swann 41% Against Rendell 53 DK/NA 6
11. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Deserves reelection 55% 31% 76% 56% 53% 57% Does not 33 57 16 27 37 29 DK/NA 12 12 8 17 10 14 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Deserves reelection 50% 82% 54% 70% 48% 33% 45% Does not 36 11 31 21 40 50 44 DK/NA 13 8 15 9 12 17 11
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for governor, do you feel that Ed Rendell deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
May 12 Apr 5 Feb 15 Dec 13 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 Deserves reelection 55 46 49 49 48 46 48 Does not deserve 33 40 37 40 41 41 38 DK/NA 12 14 14 12 11 14 14
20. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 5% 4% 7% 4% 6% 5% Smwht satisfied 46 43 48 48 46 46 Smwht dissatisfied 28 33 27 25 27 30 Very dissatisfied 19 19 16 23 20 18 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied 7% 5% 7% 9% 1% 2% 3% Smwht satisfied 42 49 51 55 44 34 44 Smwht dissatisfied 29 24 28 24 29 33 32 Very dissatisfied 21 20 13 12 24 30 19 DK/NA - 2 1 - 2 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
May 12 Apr 5 Feb 13 Dec 8 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 Very satisfied 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 Smwht satisfied 46 50 49 50 42 48 49 Smwht dissatisfied 28 29 30 33 33 32 30 Very dissatisifed 19 14 15 13 20 15 15 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 1