Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * November 1, 2006 * Casey Leads Santorum 52 - 42% - Quinnipiac University

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November 1, 2006 - Casey Leads Santorum 52 - 42% Among Likely Voters, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Rendell Leads Swann 58 - 35%

In the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race, Democratic State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr., the challenger, has a 52 - 42 percent likely voter lead over incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent are undecided and 7 percent of voters who list a candidate say they might change their mind before Election Day.
This compares to a 54 - 40 percent likely voter lead for Casey in a September 26 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
In the Governor's race, Democratic incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell leads Republican challenger Lynn Swann 58 - 35 percent among likely voters, compared to a 55 - 39 percent Rendell lead in a September 27 Quinnipiac University poll.
Republicans back Sen. Santorum 83 - 11 percent, while Democrats back Casey 87 - 7 percent and independent voters back the Democrat 61 - 32 percent. This compares to a 60 - 31 percent Casey lead among independent voters September 26.
Women voters back Casey 55 - 36 percent, while men voters split with 49 percent for the Democrat and 47 percent for the Republican.
"Pennsylvania voters seem well on their way to re-electing their popular governor and defeating their unpopular senator. Lynn Swann sounded like an all-star choice when he was picked, but he soon dropped the ball and never recovered," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. Rick Santorum was in deep trouble even before popular Treasurer Bob Casey was drafted as his challenger, and the Iraq War and the dismal approval rating of President George W. Bush have helped doom his chances," Richards added.
Rendell leads 88 - 6 percent among Democrats and 65 - 26 percent among independent voters, while Swann leads 71 - 24 percent among Republicans.
In this latest survey, 6 percent of voters are undecided and 8 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before Election Day.
"As he leads the Democratic sweep across the Keystone State on Election Day, look for Gov. Rendell to emerge as a power player in the 2008 presidential election," Richards said.
From October 23- 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 933 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Rendell or Swann? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Rendell 58% 24% 88% 65% 56% 60% Swann 35 71 6 26 40 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 5 5 10 4 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 58% 83% 58% 73% 41% 49% 47% Swann 37 7 37 26 48 44 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 10 5 1 12 8 7
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Lynn Swann the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Rendell or Swann? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS......... Nov 1 Sep 27 Aug 16 2006 2006 2006 Rendell 58 55 57 Swann 35 39 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 6 6 4
1a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q1 CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot ER LS Made up 92% 92% 91% Might change 8 7 9 DK/NA - 1 -
TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Nov 1 Sep 27 Aug 16 2006 2006 2006 Made up 92 86 65% Might change 8 14 34 DK/NA - 1 1
2. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would you vote?(If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey or Santorum? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Casey 52% 11% 87% 61% 49% 55% Santorum 42 83 7 32 47 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 5 6 7 4 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 61% 69% 58% 58% 35% 54% 38% Santorum 39 21 41 39 52 39 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 1 10 2 3 13 6 9
TREND: If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey or Santorum? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS......... Nov 1 Sep 26 Aug 15 2006 2006 2006 Casey 52 54 51 Santorum 42 40 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - DK/NA 6 6 5
2a. (If candidate choice q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q CAND CHOICE Q Tot BC RS Made up 92% 94% 90% Might change 7 6 10 DK/NA - - -
TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Nov 1 Sep 26 Aug 15 2006 2006 2006 Made up 92 82 72 Might change 7 17 27 DK/NA - 1 1