rofessor Stanley Rothman, known throughout the University as “Dr. Stan the Stats Man,” is no stranger to using statistical analysis to pick winners and losers in sports. He also isn’t afraid of going against popular opinion with his choices. While many believe that the New England Patriots will easily run away with their fifth Lombardi Trophy this Sunday, Rothman offers a more conservative outlook.
“I think that this is really a pick-em game,” Rothman, a professor of mathematics, predicted. “You have two of the best quarterbacks in the game, armed with multiple receiving weapons. Add dual-threat running backs and finish it off with arguably the best game-planners in the league right now, and you can expect a high scoring explosive Super Bowl LI matchup.”
Many experts are also giving the advantage to the Patriots due to the combined Super Bowl experience of quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichik. Rothman sees this as a superficial statistic. But, after looking at the statistics supplied by STATS, LLC on the impact of experience on the final result, he has reduced his emphasis on experience.
The statistics showed the following:
- The team with more players to appear in at least one Super Bowl won 17 times and lost 22 times
- The team with more combined Super Bowl games played among all players had 16 wins and 22 losses
- The team with a prior Super Bowl quarterback won 9 times and lost 10 times
“Stats have shown that prior Super Bowl experience of the players has no real effect on the final score,” he explained.
So what will affect the final score? Rothman examined numerous statistics closely, including both teams’ regular season win-loss percentage, their points scored (PS), points allowed (PA) and their difference (PS-PA).