February 18, 2015 - It's Clinton V. Paul In Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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  • COLORADO: Clinton 43 - Paul 41
  • IOWA: Clinton 45 - Paul 37
  • VIRGINIA: Clinton 44 - Paul 42
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton runs best overall against leading Republican White House contenders in three critical swing states, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, but U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is in a virtual tie with her in Colorado and Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush ties her in Virginia, the largest of the three, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is in a virtual tie in Colorado.

Secretary Clinton has a markedly better favorability rating than the Republicans in all three states, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on key states in the presidential election.

In this early look at possible 2016 presidential matchups, New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie is the poorest performing Republican, trailing Clinton by margins of 5 to 10 percentage points, while each of the other Republicans is in the running in at least one state.

Walker has the lowest name recognition of any of the candidates.

In each state, Jeb Bush's family ties to the White House have more of a negative impact than Hillary Clinton's ties. Also in each state, 74 percent or more of voters say the fact that Clinton would be the first woman president would not affect their vote.

"Gov. Jeb Bush has a family problem. Many voters don't like him coming from a family of presidents," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "If voters are still saying by 4-1 margins this makes them less likely to vote for him when the balloting begins, that will be trouble for him.

"Few voters, however, say they are put off by Mrs. Clinton being the wife of former President Bill Clinton."

"Several of the GOP contenders can take some solace from this poll, although Hillary Clinton remains queen of the public opinion hill at this point. The one GOPer for whom these numbers are a total drag is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie," Brown added.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker wins the 'fresh face' award, doing well against the Clinton standard, especially when he still remains an unknown to many voters. Gov. Mike Huckabee is within an average of five points of her in these three key states."

Colorado

Clinton gets 43 percent to Paul's 41 percent in the presidential race in Colorado. She tops or ties the other Republicans:
  • 43 - 34 percent over Gov. Christie;
  • 44 - 36 percent over Bush;
  • 42 - 40 percent over Gov. Walker;
  • 44 - 39 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
The Democrat's margin among women ranges from 8 to14 percentage points. Men are more closely divided, except for Paul's 8-point lead.

Her lead among independent voters ranges from too close to call against Paul or Walker to a 7 percentage point lead over either Bush or Christie.

Colorado voters don't think much of any of the candidates. They give Clinton a split 46 - 47 percent favorability rating. Favorability ratings for the Republicans are negative or split:
  • 26 - 47 percent for Christie;
  • 29 - 43 percent for Bush;
  • 33 - 33 percent for Paul;
  • 33 - 34 percent for Huckabee;
  • 24 - 21 percent for Walker with 54 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Because Jeb Bush is son to former President George H.W. Bush and brother to former President George W. Bush, 39 percent of Colorado voters are less likely to vote for him, while 8 percent are more likely and 52 percent say the family tie won't affect their vote.

Only 24 percent of voters are less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton because of President Bill Clinton, while 15 percent are more likely and 59 percent say it will make no difference.

The fact that Hillary Clinton would be the first woman president makes no difference in their vote, 74 percent of Colorado voters say.

"Today, at least, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky give former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton a run for her money in Colorado," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Neither gender nor spouse seem to raise red flags for Hillary Clinton."

Iowa

While she doesn't hit the all-important 50 percent mark, Clinton tops all the listed Republicans in Iowa:
  • 45 - 38 percent over Huckabee;
  • 45 - 37 percent over Paul;
  • 44 - 34 percent over Christie;
  • 45 - 35 percent over Bush;
  • 45 - 35 percent over Walker.
The Democrat's lead among women ranges from 20 to 28 percentage points. Clinton trails among men by margins of 3 to 14 percentage points.

Her lead among independent voters ranges from 9 to 16 percentage points.

Iowa voters give Clinton a 49 - 40 percent favorability rating. Favorability ratings for the Republicans are negative or divided:
  • 28 - 38 percent for Christie;
  • 25 - 37 percent for Bush;
  • 28 - 31 percent for Paul;
  • 35 - 33 percent for Huckabee;
  • 21 - 23 percent for Walker with 55 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Because of Jeb Bush's family ties, 35 percent of Iowa voters are less likely to vote for him, while 8 percent are more likely and 57 percent say it won't make a difference.

Only 18 percent of voters are less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton because of her husband, while 15 percent are more likely and 66 percent say it will make no difference.

The fact that Hillary Clinton would be the first woman president makes no difference in their vote, 77 percent of Iowa voters say.

"Iowa is where Hillary Clinton does best, especially among those critical independent voters, a key swing group in a key swing state," Brown said.

Virginia

Virginia is Bush country, as voters give him 42 percent to Clinton's 42 percent. Other possible matchups, especially with Paul, remain close:
  • Clinton at 44 percent to Paul's 42 percent;
  • 44 percent for Clinton to 41 percent for Huckabee;
  • Clinton edges Christie 44 - 39 percent;
  • Clinton squeaks by Walker 45 - 40 percent.
The Democrat's lead among women ranges from 11 to 16 percentage points, while men go against her by margins of 4 to 14 percentage points.

Independent voters give Bush a 12 percentage point margin over Clinton, while margins in the other races are too close to call among these key voters.

Clinton gets a narrow 48 - 44 percent favorability rating from Virginia voters, but this is better than Bush or the other Republicans:
  • 36 - 35 percent for Bush;
  • 36 - 38 percent for Christie;
  • 31 - 32 percent for Paul;
  • 36 - 36 percent for Huckabee;
  • 24 - 17 percent for Walker with 57 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Because of Jeb Bush's family ties, 35 percent of Virginia voters are less likely to vote for him, while 9 percent are more likely and 55 percent say it won't make a difference.

Only 21 percent of voters are less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton because of her husband, while 16 percent are more likely and 62 percent say it will make no difference.

The fact that Hillary Clinton would be the first woman president makes no difference in their vote, 76 percent of Virginia voters say.

"Virginia, which was once a solidly red state before it tipped to President Barack Obama, now seems to hold some promise for Republicans running against Hillary Clinton," Brown said.

From February 5 - 15 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,049 Colorado voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points;
  • 1,089 Iowa voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points;
  • 1,074 Virginia voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              43%    44%    44%
Christie             34     34     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       7      4      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      8      5      5
DK/NA                 8     13      8
 
 
2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              44%    45%    42%
Bush                 36     35     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       5      4      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      5      5
DK/NA                 7     12      7
 
 
3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              43%    45%    44%
Paul                 41     37     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      4      4
DK/NA                 7     12      7
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              44%    45%    44%
Huckabee             39     38     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       5      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      4      4
DK/NA                 7     11      9
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Scott Walker the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              42%    45%    45%
Walker               40     35     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      5      3
DK/NA                 9     12     10
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            46%    49%    48%
Unfavorable          47     40     44
Hvn't hrd enough      4      9      5
REFUSED               2      2      3
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            26%    28%    36%
Unfavorable          47     38     38
Hvn't hrd enough     25     32     23
REFUSED               1      2      4
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            29%    25%    36%
Unfavorable          43     37     35
Hvn't hrd enough     27     37     26
REFUSED               2      1      2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            33%    28%    31%
Unfavorable          33     31     32
Hvn't hrd enough     33     39     35
REFUSED               2      1      2
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            33%    35%    36%
Unfavorable          34     33     36
Hvn't hrd enough     31     31     26
REFUSED               2      1      2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            24%    21%    24%
Unfavorable          21     23     17
Hvn't hrd enough     54     55     57
REFUSED               -      1      1
 
 
19. Jeb Bush's father and his brother both served as president. Does that make you more likely to support Jeb Bush for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
More likely           8%     8%     9%
Less likely          39     35     35
No difference        52     57     55
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
20. Hillary Clinton's husband served as president. Does that make you more likely to support Hillary Clinton for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
More likely          15%    15%    16%
Less likely          24     18     21
No difference        59     66     62
DK/NA                 2      1      1
 
 
21. Hillary Clinton would be the first female president. Does that make you more likely to support Hillary Clinton for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
More likely          15%    12%    14%
Less likely          11     10      9
No difference        74     77     76
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
Additional info by state:
Colorado: Trends and Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Iowa: Trends and Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Virginia: Trends and Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail