March 31, 2015 - Clinton Down But Still Up In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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  • FLORIDA: - Bush 45 - Clinton 42
  • OHIO: Clinton 46 - Paul 41
  • PENNSYLVANIA: Paul 45 - Clinton 44
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's margins are down in matchups with possible 2016 Republican presidential candidates in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and in no state do voters say she's honest and trustworthy, but she still runs best overall of any candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

The closest contests are in Florida, where former Gov. Jeb Bush gets 45 percent to Clinton's 42 percent, and Pennsylvania, where U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky gets 45 percent to Clinton's 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

Clinton's favorability rating is down in each state, but she still does better than Republican contenders, except for Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida.

Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, Florida voters say 50 - 41 percent and Pennsylvania voters say 49 - 44 percent. Ohio voters are divided as 47 percent say yes and 46 percent say no.

Matchups between Clinton and her closest Republican opponent in each state show:
  • Florida: Bush at 45 percent to Clinton's 42 percent;
  • Ohio: Clinton over Paul 46 - 41 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Paul at 45 percent to 44 percent for Clinton.
"The good news for Hillary Clinton is that the e-mail controversy has not done huge violence to her presidential chances. But the matter is taking a toll on the former secretary of state's public image," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"On the plus side, Secretary Clinton is considered a strong leader - a key characteristic for voters when picking a president, more so than her leading, but lesser-known, potential GOP opponents," Brown said. "But about half the voters in all three states question her honesty and trustworthiness.

"Majorities in each state think Clinton still has questions to answer about her e-mails. Voters in each state are evenly divided on whether Congressional hearings are warranted although a majority thinks such a hearing would be politically motivated rather than justified."

The gender gap remains wide as Clinton leads among women in every contest, by margins of 7 percentage points to 28 percentage points. Her margins among men range from a 3 percentage point lead to a 23-point deficit.

Florida

While Clinton remains in a see-saw battle with Bush and is in a tight race with either Sen. Rubio or Sen. Paul, she leads other Republicans, but her leads are down from a February 3 Quinnipiac University poll:
  • Bush at 45 percent to Clinton's 42 percent, compared to Clinton at 44 percent to Bush's 43 percent;
  • Clinton at 46 percent to Rubio's 44 percent, compared to a 49 - 39 percent Clinton lead;
  • She's at 46 percent to Paul's 43 percent, compared to a 50 - 38 percent Clinton lead;
  • Clinton tops Christie 44 - 39 percent, compared to a 51 - 33 percent lead;
  • Clinton over Huckabee 48 - 40 percent, compared to 51 - 34 percent;
  • She tops Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker 46 - 40 percent;
  • Clinton beats Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 48 - 39 percent.
She gets a slim 49 - 46 percent favorability rating from Florida voters, down from 53 - 39 percent last month. Bush's 47 - 42 percent favorability compares to 46 - 38 percent February 3. Scores for other Republicans are:
  • Negative 30 - 44 percent for Christie;
  • 31 - 31 percent for Paul;
  • 33 - 32 percent for Huckabee;
  • 42 - 38 percent for Rubio;
  • 26 - 20 percent for Walker, with 53 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion;
  • Negative 24 - 31 percent for Cruz.
A total of 51 percent of Florida voters say Clinton's e-mail problems are "very important" or "somewhat important' in their vote for president, and 38 percent say they are less likely to vote for her because of this issue, while 56 percent say it won't affect their vote.

Only 33 percent of voters say Clinton has provided satisfactory answers on the e-mail issue, while 56 percent say serious questions remain.

But voters say 54 - 41 percent that a Congressional investigation into Clinton's e-mails is politically motivated, rather than justified.

"Talk about well-exposed! Secretary Clinton has virtually 100 percent name recognition in the Sunshine state, as 95 percent of Floridians have an opinion about her favorably or unfavorably. That means changing voters' preferences will be difficult," Brown said.

Ohio

While margins are smaller than last month, Clinton leads all Republicans in Ohio:
  • 47 - 38 percent over Bush, compared to 47 - 36 percent February 3;
  • 45 - 39 percent over Christie, compared to 47 - 34 percent;
  • 46 - 41 percent over Paul, compared to 48 - 36 percent;
  • 49 - 39 percent over Huckabee, compared to 49 - 34 percent;
  • 47 - 38 percent over Rubio;
  • 49 - 38 percent over Walker;
  • 48 - 38 percent over Cruz.
Clinton's 51 - 43 percent favorability compares to 51 - 40 percent last month. Scores among Republicans are:
  • Negative 32 - 40 percent for Bush;
  • Negative 28 - 37 percent for Christie;
  • 33 - 30 percent for Paul;
  • 33 - 31 percent for Huckabee;
  • 25 - 20 percent for Rubio, with 55 percent who don't know enough about him;
  • 22 - 20 percent for Walker, with 58 percent who don't know enough about him;
  • Negative 21 - 29 percent for Cruz.
Ohio voters are divided 51 - 49 percent on whether Clinton's e-mail problems are important or not in their vote for president, and 61 percent say this issue won't affect their vote.

Clinton has provided satisfactory answers on the e-mail issue, 41 percent of voters say, while 52 percent say serious questions remain.

A Congressional investigation into Clinton's e-mails is politically motivated, rather than justified, voters say 54 - 40 percent.

"Something for Secretary Clinton's team to worry about. Thirty-six percent of independent voters in the key state of Ohio say they are less likely to vote for her because of the e-mail controversy," Brown said.

Pennsylvania

Paul gets 45 percent in Pennsylvania to Clinton's 44 percent, compared to a 53 - 34 percent Clinton lead February 3. She tops other Republicans by smaller leads than last month.
  • 45 - 40 percent over Christie, compared to 50 - 39 percent February 3;
  • 46 - 40 percent over Bush, compared to 50 - 35 percent;
  • 47 - 41 percent over Huckabee, compared to 54 - 34 percent;
  • 46 - 42 percent over Rubio;
  • 46 - 41 percent over Walker;
  • 48 - 39 percent over Cruz.
Clinton's favorability rating in Pennsylvania, a divided 48 - 47 percent, is down from 55 - 38 percent February 3. Ratings for the Republicans are:
  • Negative 34 - 48 percent for Christie;
  • Negative 32 - 45 percent for Bush;
  • 37 - 31 percent for Paul;
  • 35 - 32 percent for Huckabee;
  • 30 - 20 percent for Rubio;
  • 27 - 19 percent for Walker, with 53 percent who don't know enough about him.
  • Negative 25 - 32 percent for Cruz.
Pennsylvania voters say 52 - 47 percent that Clinton's e-mail problems are important in their vote for president, and 41 percent say they are less likely to vote for her because of this issue, while 54 percent say it won't affect their vote.

Clinton has provided satisfactory answers on the e-mail issue, 38 percent of voters say, while 55 percent say serious questions remain. A Congressional investigation into Clinton's e- mails is politically motivated, rather than justified, Pennsylvania voters say 55 - 42 percent.

"A red flag in blue state Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton, seemingly invincible before the e-mail scandal, ends up tied with Rand Paul," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

From March 17 - 28 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,087 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent;
  • 1,077 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent;
  • 1,036 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.


3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              44%    45%    45%
Christie             39     39     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      5      6
DK/NA                 7      9      5
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              46%    46%    44%
Paul                 43     41     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      3
DK/NA                 6      9      6
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              48%    49%    47%
Huckabee             40     39     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      3
DK/NA                 6      7      6
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              42%    47%    46%
Bush                 45     38     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      5      6
DK/NA                 6      7      5
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              46%    47%    46%
Rubio                44     38     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      4
DK/NA                 5     10      7
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Scott Walker the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              46%    49%    46%
Walker               40     38     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      4
DK/NA                 8     10      8
 
 
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              48%    48%    48%
Cruz                 39     38     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      4
DK/NA                 6      9      7
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            49%    51%    48%
Unfavorable          46     43     47
Hvn't hrd enough      3      4      4
REFUSED               2      2      2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            30%    28%    34%
Unfavorable          44     37     48
Hvn't hrd enough     24     33     17
REFUSED               2      1      1
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            31%    33%    37%
Unfavorable          31     30     31
Hvn't hrd enough     36     36     31
REFUSED               2      2      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            33%    33%    35%
Unfavorable          32     31     32
Hvn't hrd enough     33     34     33
REFUSED               2      2      1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            47%    32%    32%
Unfavorable          42     40     45
Hvn't hrd enough      9     27     22
REFUSED               2      2      1
 
 
15. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            42%    25%    30%
Unfavorable          38     20     20
Hvn't hrd enough     18     55     49
REFUSED               1      -      1
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            26%    22%    27%
Unfavorable          20     20     19
Hvn't hrd enough     53     58     53
REFUSED               1      1      -
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            24%    21%    25%
Unfavorable          31     29     32
Hvn't hrd enough     44     49     42
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
23. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  41%    47%    44%
No                   50     46     49
DK/NA                 9      7      7
 
 
24. Would you say that - Jeb Bush is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  54%    42%    45%
No                   35     34     36
DK/NA                11     24     20
 
 
25. Would you say that - Scott Walker is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  32%    30%    32%
No                   24     22     22
DK/NA                44     48     46
 
 
26. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  62%    66%    62%
No                   35     31     35
DK/NA                 3      3      2
 
 
27. Would you say that - Jeb Bush has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  65%    49%    52%
No                   27     32     31
DK/NA                 8     19     16
 
 
28. Would you say that - Scott Walker has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  36%    34%    36%
No                   24     21     19
DK/NA                40     45     45
 
 
29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton handled her job as Secretary of State?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Approve              52%    55%    53%
Disapprove           44     39     44
DK/NA                 4      6      4
 
30. As you may know, Hillary Clinton used a personal email address to conduct government business while working as Secretary of State. How important is this issue to your vote for President in the 2016 general election; very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Very important       33%    30%    33%
Somewhat important   18     21     19
Not so important     17     16     19
Not important at all 30     33     28
DK/NA                 2      1      1
 
 
31. If Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2016, does her using a personal email address to conduct government business while working as Secretary of State make you more likely to vote for her in the general election, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
More likely           4%     1%     3%
Less likely          38     36     41
No difference        56     61     54
DK/NA                 2      1      2
 
 
32. Do you think Clinton has given satisfactory answers on this matter, or do you think there are serious questions that remain to be answered?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Satisfactory answers 33%    41%    38%
Questions remain     56     52     55
DK/NA                11      6      7
 
 
33. Do you support or oppose a congressional investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a personal email address to conduct government business while working as Secretary of State?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Support              47%    48%    48%
Oppose               48     48     48
DK/NA                 5      4      4
 
 
34. Do you believe that a Congressional investigation into this matter is justified or is politically motivated?