April 1, 2015 - Talk, Don't Shoot On Iran, Voters Say 4-1 In Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll; But Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Voters Don't Trust Iran Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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By a margin of 4-1 or higher, voters in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, prefer a negotiated settlement to reduce Iran's nuclear program rather than military intervention, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Voters also support by margins of more than 2-1 an agreement in which the U.S. and other nations lift some economic sanctions against Iran if Iran restricts its nuclear program, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

Iran is not capable of negotiating in good faith, Florida voters say 62 - 27 percent; Ohio voters say by the same 62 - 27 percent and Pennsylvania voters say 64 - 24 percent.

President Barack Obama remains deep in the hole, with negative job approval ratings:
  • 41 - 55 percent in Florida;
  • 42 - 54 percent in Ohio;
  • 40 - 56 percent in Pennsylvania.
The letter from 47 Republican senators to Iranian leaders, saying any agreement with President Barack Obama could be revoked without congressional approval, was not appropriate, voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania say by margins of about 20 percent.

"The devil is in the details, but voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, by wide margins favor negotiations to military action to convince Iran to restrict its nuclear program," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"Almost exactly the same share of voters in the three states - slightly more than three in five - would support a deal with Iran that lifts some sanctions while making it more difficult for Iran to produce nuclear weapons.

"By similar margins, voters also believe the Iranians are not capable of negotiating in good faith," Brown added.

"President Barack Obama gets lousy grades for his job performance, although they are not quite as low as they have been at times in his second term. More damning is that about five in eight voters say they want the new president to take the country in a different direction."

Florida

Florida voters favor negotiations with Iran rather than military action 71 - 18 percent. They support a settlement that lifts sanctions in return for nuclear restrictions 63 - 26 percent. Men and women are largely in agreement on both questions.

The Republican letter to Iran was not appropriate, voters say 55 - 38 percent. Turning thumbs down to the letter are Democrats 79 - 14 percent and independent voters 61 - 32 percent, while Republicans support the letter 68 - 26 percent.

The letter will hurt rather than help White House efforts to restrict Iran's nuclear program, voters say 33 - 8 percent, with 50 percent saying it will not have an impact.

Florida voters support 65 - 23 percent legislation making an Iran agreement subject to congressional approval.

Ohio

Ohio voters say 73 - 18 percent that the U.S. should talk rather than shoot its way to a nuclear deal with Iran. They support 68 - 22 percent an agreement to lift sanctions in exchange for Iran restricting its nuclear program. Again, there is very little gender gap on these questions.

Voters say 57 - 36 percent the Republican letter to Iran was not appropriate. Against the letter are Democrats 86 - 8 percent and independent voters 60 - 33 percent, while Republicans support it 64 - 28 percent.

The letter will hurt rather than help peace talks, voters say 41 - 6 percent, while 47 percent say it won't make a difference.

A nuclear deal with Iran should be subject to congressional approval, voters say 65 - 25 percent.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania voters offer the biggest Swing State support for negotiations with Iran over military intervention, 76 - 15 percent. Men back negotiations 74 - 18 percent, while women support talks 77 - 12 percent.

With almost no gender gap, voters back an agreement lifting sanctions in exchange for restricting Iran's nuclear program 65 - 24 percent.

Republicans were out of line with the letter to Iran's leaders, voters say 58 - 36 percent. Against the letter are Democrats 86 - 10 percent and independent voters 64 - 29 percent, while Republicans are for it 64 - 29 percent.

The letter will hurt rather than help peace talks, voters say 42 - 7 percent, while 45 percent say it won't make a difference.

Voters say 66 - 25 percent that a nuclear deal should be subject to congressional approval.

From March 17 - 28 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,087 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent;
  • 1,077 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent;
  • 1,036 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Approve              41%    42%    40%
Disapprove           55     54     56
DK/NA                 3      4      4
 
 
22. Would you like to see the next President generally; continue with Barack Obama's policies or change direction from Barack Obama's policies?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Continue policies    32%    30%    28%
Change direction     61     64     66
DK/NA                 8      7      6
 
 
35. Do you think that Iran's nuclear program is a major threat, a minor threat, or not a threat to the well-being of the United States?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Major threat         66%    66%    65%
Minor threat         23     26     25
Not a threat          7      6      5
DK/NA                 4      3      5
 
 
36. Would you support or oppose an agreement, in which the United States and other countries would lift some of their economic sanctions against Iran, in exchange for Iran restricting its nuclear program in a way that makes it harder for it to produce nuclear weapons?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Support              63%    68%    65%
Oppose               26     22     24
DK/NA                11     10     10
 
 
37. Do you think Iran is or is not capable of negotiating in good faith?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes/Is capable       27%    27%    24%
No/Not capable       62     62     64
DK/NA                11     11     12
 
 
38. As you may know, 47 Republican senators sent an open letter to the leaders of Iran warning that any agreement they make with President Obama will only be an "executive agreement" that could be revoked unless it gets congressional approval. Do you think it was or was not appropriate for Republicans to send this letter?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Appropriate          38%    36%    36%
Not appropriate      55     57     58
DK/NA                 7      8      6
 
 
39. Do you think that letter will help or hurt White House efforts to peacefully reduce Iran's nuclear capabilities, or won't it make a difference?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Help                  8%     6%     7%
Hurt                 33     41     42
No difference        50     47     45
DK/NA                 9      7      6
 
 
40. Would you prefer military intervention against Iran's nuclear program or a negotiated settlement to reduce its nuclear potential?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Military interventn  18%    18%    15%
Negotiated settlemnt 71     73     76
DK/NA                12      9      9
 
 
41. Would you support or oppose legislation that would make any Iran agreement subject to congressional approval?