April 2, 2015 - Bush Slips In Florida, Stalls In Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; E-Mails Or Not, Dems Love Clinton Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is the front-runner in a possible 2016 presidential primary in Florida, but he is slipping there and stalled in two other key swing states, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is moving up and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas is back in the pack.

Despite the firestorm over her use of e-mails as secretary of state, Hillary Clinton holds commanding leads, with 48 to 65 percent of Democrats in each state, topping her nearest challenger by 3-1 to 6-1, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

If Clinton stays out of the race, Vice President Joseph Biden leads the Democratic pack in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with tallies ranging from 34 percent to 42 percent.

Republican primary matchups show: Florida: Bush leads with 24 percent, down from 32 percent in a February 4 Quinnipiac University poll. Walker is next with 15 percent, with U.S. Sen Marco Rubio at 12 percent. Ohio: Gov. John Kasich gets the native son vote with 20 percent, with Walker, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 9 percent each, Bush at 8 percent, compared to 10 percent February 4, and Ben Carson at 8 percent. Pennsylvania: Walker at 14 percent with 9 percent each for Carson, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum and Bush, who was at 12 percent last month.

"Gov. Scott Walker continues to be the surprise in the early part of the 2016 campaign. We've got a long way to go till Iowans caucus next winter, but the Wisconsin governor has climbed into the first tier of contenders along with establishment favorite Jeb Bush, who can't be happy with his numbers today," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"Bush has a lead over the field in his home state of Florida, but it's not anywhere near insurmountable. There is no clear leader in Pennsylvania and Gov. John Kasich, the native son, is ahead in Ohio," Brown added.

"On the Democratic side Secretary Clinton's commanding lead for the nomination is only slightly less commanding, apparently due to the news media focus on questions about her email and foreign government donations to her family foundation. But Democratic primary voters still consider her a demi-god and those who think she is beatable in a nomination fight caucus in phone booths."

Florida

Clinton leads among Florida Democrats with 65 percent of the vote, followed by Vice President Biden with 11 percent and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at 7 percent.

If Clinton steps aside, Biden gets 42 percent of Florida Democrats, with 19 percent for Warren.

If Bush does not run, Rubio gets 21 percent of Florida Republicans, with 17 percent for Walker, 9 percent for Carson and 8 percent for Cruz.

With Walker out, Bush gets 26 percent, with 15 percent for Rubio and 10 percent each for Carson and Cruz.

"Hillary Clinton does better among Florida Democrats than she does in Ohio and Pennsylvania," Brown said. "Whatever the reason, with an 87 percent favorable rating from Sunshine State Democrats, she has an enormous lead among members of her own party."

Ohio

Clinton tops the Democratic pack in Ohio with 54 percent, with Warren at 14 percent and Biden at 9 percent.

If Clinton does not run, Biden gets 34 percent, with 25 percent for Warren.

If Bush steps aside, Kasich takes 22 percent of Ohio Republicans, with 10 percent for Walker, and 9 percent each for Cruz and Huckabee.

With Walker out, Kasich keeps his 22 percent, with 11 percent for Cruz and 9 percent each for Bush, Huckabee and Carson.

"Gov. John Kasich's decision about whether to join the presidential campaign at least for now is the big unknown in the Buckeye State," Brown said. "If he runs, he would be the early leader at home, although his appeal in other states is yet to be shown."

Pennsylvania

Clinton gets 48 percent among Democrats in Pennsylvania, the only Swing State where she drops under 50 percent. Warren gets 15 percent, with 13 percent for Keystone State native Biden.

With Clinton out, Biden gets 34 percent with 27 percent for Warren.

If Bush steps out, Pennsylvania Republicans go 14 percent for Walker, 9 percent each for Carson and Santorum and 8 percent each for Cruz, Paul and Rubio.

With Walker out, Carson gets 11 percent, with 10 percent each for Bush and Cruz and 9 percent each for Rubio and Santorum.

"The e-mail to Hillary Clinton loyalists could read, 'Taking some hits, but hanging tough,' as Pennsylvania Democrats seem to be sticking by her," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

From March 17 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,087 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The survey includes 428 registered Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent and 344 registered Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent.
  • 1,077 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. This includes 404 registered Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent and 324 registered Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percent.
  • 1,036 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. This includes 442 registered Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent and 415 registered Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Scott Walker, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Bush                 24%     8%     9%
Carson                8      8      9
Christie              1      5      5
Cruz                  7      9      7
Graham                -      -      -
Huckabee              6      9      6
Jindal                -      1      1
Kasich                1     20      2
Paul                  4      7      6
Perry                 2      1      3
Rubio                12      5      7
Santorum              -      1      9
Walker               15      9     14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      4
DK/NA                15     15     18
 
 
1A. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING BUSH VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT BUSH
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Carson                9%     8%     9%
Christie              3      6      6
Cruz                  8      9      8
Graham                1      -      1
Huckabee              6      9      6
Jindal                1      1      2
Kasich                1     22      2
Paul                  7      7      8
Perry                 3      2      3
Rubio                21      6      8
Santorum              -      1      9
Walker               17     10     14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      4
DK/NA                20     17     20
 
 
1B. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING WALKER VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS...
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT WALKER
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Bush                 26%     9%    10%
Carson               10      9     11
Christie              2      5      5
Cruz                 10     11     10
Graham                -      -      1
Huckabee              6      9      7
Jindal                2      2      2
Kasich                1     22      2
Paul                  5      7      7
Perry                 3      1      3
Rubio                15      6      9
Santorum              -      1      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      4
DK/NA                16     15     19
 
 
2. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Jim Webb, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Biden                11%     9%    13%
Clinton              65     54     48
O'Malley              -      3      1
Sanders               3      3      1
Warren                7     14     15
Webb                  2      2      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      4
DK/NA                10     12     15
 
 
2A. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q2 ASKING CLINTON VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS......
                     MATCHUP Q2 WITHOUT CLINTON
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Biden                42%    34%    34%
O'Malley              1      5      4
Sanders               6      5      2
Warren               19     25     27
Webb                  3      2      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      5
DK/NA                22     24     25
 
 
2B. (If Registered Democrat) What's your preference: that Hillary Clinton runs unopposed for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016, or that Clinton runs for the nomination but that other Democrats also run, or that Clinton does not run for the presidential nomination?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Runs unopposed       32%    30%    25%
Other Dems also run  49     53     52
Does not run         11     10     15
DK/NA                 8      7      8
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            87%    86%    79%
Unfavorable          10      9     16
Hvn't hrd enough      2      3      4
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            41%    43%    43%
Unfavorable          35     29     39
Hvn't hrd enough     22     27     17
REFUSED               2      2      1
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            50%    57%    55%
Unfavorable          16     13     19
Hvn't hrd enough     32     29     25
REFUSED               2      2      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            59%    62%    57%
Unfavorable          14     16     15
Hvn't hrd enough     26     21     27
REFUSED               2      1      1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            70%    50%    48%
Unfavorable          22     27     29
Hvn't hrd enough      7     20     22
REFUSED               1      2      1
 
 
15. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            72%    49%    52%
Unfavorable          10      4      6
Hvn't hrd enough     17     45     40
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            52%    44%    47%
Unfavorable           4      4      7
Hvn't hrd enough     42     51     45
REFUSED               1      1      -
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            50%    43%    47%
Unfavorable          14      9     15
Hvn't hrd enough     35     47     38
REFUSED               1      1      -
 
Additional info by state:
Florida: Trends and Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Ohio: Trends and Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Pennsylvania: Trends and Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail