April 9, 2015 - Paul Blooms As Clinton Wilts In Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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  • COLORADO: Paul 44 - Clinton 41
  • IOWA: Paul 43 - Clinton 42
  • VIRGINIA: Clinton 47 - Paul 43
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's lead is wilting against leading Republican presidential candidates in three critical swing states, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, and she finds herself in a close race with U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky in each state, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. In head-to-head matchups, every Republican candidate effectively ties her in Colorado and almost all Republicans effectively tie her in Iowa.

Secretary Clinton has lost ground in almost every matchup in Colorado and Iowa since a February 18 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The Swing State Poll focuses on key states in the presidential election.

One bright spot for Clinton is Virginia, the largest of the three states, where she leads all Republicans, including 47 - 40 percent over Bush, compared to a 42 - 42 percent tie in February.

Voters in each state say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Her overall favorability has dropped significantly in Colorado and Iowa, while Virginia is unchanged. Favorability ratings for the Republicans are lackluster, at best.

"These numbers are a boost for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky as he formally launches his campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Ominous for Hillary Clinton is the broad scope of the movement today compared to her showing in Quinnipiac University's mid-February survey. It isn't just one or two Republicans who are stepping up; it's virtually the entire GOP field that is running better against her.

"That's why it is difficult to see Secretary Clinton's slippage as anything other than a further toll on her image from the furor over her e-mail."

"In all three of these states, more, and in Colorado many more, registered voters say she is not honest and trustworthy," Brown added. "Voters do think she is a strong leader - a key metric - but unless she can change the honesty perception, running as a competent but dishonest candidate has serious potential problems."

Colorado

In the presidential race in Colorado, Paul gets 44 percent to Clinton's 41 percent and other Republicans are effectively tied as well:
  • U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida gets 41 percent to Clinton's 40 percent;
  • She ties former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 41 - 41 percent;
  • Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker gets 42 percent to her 41 percent;
  • Clinton gets 42 percent to 41 percent for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas;
  • She gets 41 percent to Bush's 38 percent;
  • Clinton gets 41 percent to 39 percent for New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie.
Clinton gets a negative 41 - 51 percent favorability, compared to 46 - 47 percent in February. Favorability ratings for the Republicans are:
  • Negative 22 - 48 percent for Christie;
  • Negative 29 - 44 percent for Bush;
  • 36 - 31 percent for Paul;
  • 35 - 35 percent for Huckabee;
  • 26 - 23 percent for Walker with 50 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion;
  • 31 - 26 percent for Rubio;
  • Negative 28 - 34 percent for Cruz.
Colorado voters say 56 - 38 percent that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Her e-mail controversy is "very important" or "somewhat important" as an issue in their vote, 51 percent of voters say, while 49 percent say "not so important" or "not important at all."

The e-mail issue makes them less likely to vote for Clinton, 42 percent of voters say, while 55 percent say it won't affect their vote. Only 34 percent of voters say she's given satisfactory answers on the e-mail issue, while 57 percent say serious questions remain.

But 51 percent of Colorado voters say a Congressional investigation of Clinton's e-mails would be politically motivated.

"Hillary Clinton still has a mountain or two to climb to win the hearts of Coloradans who don't trust her," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The e- mail controversy is opening doors to candidates who had little traction as Hillary Clinton gets bad numbers on trust and honesty."

Iowa

Every Republican is tied or close to Clinton in Iowa:
  • She gets 41 percent to 39 percent for Christie:
  • She gets 41 percent to 40 percent for Bush;
  • Paul at 43 percent to Clinton's 42 percent;
  • Huckabee ties her 42 - 42 percent;
  • Clinton edges Walker 44 - 40 percent;
  • She gets 43 percent to 40 percent against either Rubio or Cruz.
Iowa voters give Clinton a split 45 - 47 percent favorability rating, down from 49 - 40 percent February 18. Favorability ratings for the Republicans are:
  • Negative 27 - 39 percent for Christie;
  • Negative 31 - 38 percent for Bush;
  • 35 - 29 percent for Paul;
  • 41 - 31 percent for Huckabee;
  • 25 - 24 percent for Walker with 50 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion;
  • 24 - 21 percent for Rubio with 54 percent who don't know enough about him;
  • Negative 26 - 31 percent for Cruz.
Iowa voters say 49 - 43 percent that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Voters are divided 50 - 49 percent on whether the e-mail scandal is important to their vote. While 37 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for Clinton because of this issue, 58 percent say it will make no difference in their vote.

Clinton has given satisfactory answers on the e-mail scandal, 34 percent of voters say, but 54 percent say serious questions remain. Voters say 53 - 40 percent that a Congressional investigation of the e-mail scandal would be politically motivated.

"Iowa epitomizes the image of a swing state. When Hillary Clinton is matched against seven of the GOP hopefuls, all of those mythical matchups have a difference of four percentage points or less," Brown said.

Virginia

Clinton leads Bush 47 - 40 percent in Virginia, compared to a 42 - 42 percent tie February 18, She gets 47 percent to Paul's 43 percent, her closest race in the Old Dominion. In other races:
  • Clinton tops Christie 46 - 40 percent;
  • Clinton over Huckabee 48 - 40 percent;
  • Clinton tops Walker 47 - 40 percent;
  • She beats Rubio 48 - 40 percent;
  • Clinton tops Cruz 49 - 39 percent.
The Democrat gets a split 48 - 45 percent favorability rating, compared to 48 - 44 percent in February. Favorability ratings for Republicans are:
  • Negative 32 - 38 percent for Bush;
  • Negative 31 - 41 percent for Christie;
  • 34 - 31 percent for Paul;
  • 34 - 36 percent for Huckabee;
  • 26 - 20 percent for Walker with 53 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
  • 29 - 25 percent for Rubio;
  • Negative 30 - 38 percent for Cruz.
Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, Virginia voters say 52 - 40 percent. Her e-mail scandal is important to their vote, 51 percent of voters say, while 47 percent say it's not so important or not important at all. The e-mail issue makes 39 percent less likely to voter for her, while 56 percent say it makes no difference.

Serious questions about the e-mail scandal remain, 54 percent of voters say, while 38 percent say Clinton has given satisfactory answers. Virginia voters say 51 - 46 percent a Congressional investigation into the e-mail scandal would be politically motivated.

"Of the three states tested, Virginia seems to be the friendliest toward Hillary Clinton, perhaps a continuing reflection of the Old Dominion's leftward drift over the past decade. Only yesterday, it seemed, it was deeply red," Brown said.

From March 29 - April 7 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 894 Colorado voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points;
  • 948 Iowa voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points;
  • 961 Virginia voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              41%    41%    46%
Christie             39     39     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      4      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      9      6      5
DK/NA                 8     10      7
 
 
2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              41%    41%    47%
Bush                 38     40     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      4      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)     10      6      5
DK/NA                 7      8      6
 
 
3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              41%    42%    47%
Paul                 44     43     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      4      2
DK/NA                 7      9      6
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              41%    42%    48%
Huckabee             41     42     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      5      3
DK/NA                 8      9      6
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Scott Walker the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              41%    44%    47%
Walker               42     40     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      4      2
DK/NA                 9     10      8
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              40%    43%    48%
Rubio                41     40     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      4      2
DK/NA                 9     10      7
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              42%    43%    49%
Cruz                 41     40     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      5      4
DK/NA                 8      9      7
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            41%    45%    48%
Unfavorable          51     47     45
Hvn't hrd enough      6      5      4
REFUSED               2      2      2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            22%    27%    31%
Unfavorable          48     39     41
Hvn't hrd enough     29     31     25
REFUSED               2      4      3
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            29%    31%    32%
Unfavorable          44     38     38
Hvn't hrd enough     25     28     28
REFUSED               2      3      2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            36%    35%    34%
Unfavorable          31     29     31
Hvn't hrd enough     33     35     33
REFUSED               1      1      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            35%    41%    34%
Unfavorable          35     31     36
Hvn't hrd enough     29     27     28
REFUSED               2      1      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            26%    25%    26%
Unfavorable          23     24     20
Hvn't hrd enough     50     50     53
REFUSED               1      1      2
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            31%    24%    29%
Unfavorable          26     21     25
Hvn't hrd enough     42     54     44
REFUSED               1      2      2
 
 
15. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            28%    26%    30%
Unfavorable          34     31     38
Hvn't hrd enough     36     42     31
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
21. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  38%    43%    40%
No                   56     49     52
DK/NA                 6      8      7
 
 
22. Would you say that - Jeb Bush is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  41%    43%    44%
No                   36     29     33
DK/NA                23     28     23
 
 
23. Would you say that - Scott Walker is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  34%    31%    32%
No                   26     25     23
DK/NA                41     44     44
 
 
24. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  56%    62%    62%
No                   39     34     35
DK/NA                 5      4      3
 
 
25. Would you say that - Jeb Bush has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  48%    49%    52%
No                   33     28     30
DK/NA                19     23     19
 
 
26. Would you say that - Scott Walker has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  38%    34%    40%
No                   24     25     23
DK/NA                37     41     38
 
 
27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton handled her job as Secretary of State?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Approve              48%    53%    52%
Disapprove           47     40     43
DK/NA                 5      7      5
 
 
28. As you may know, Hillary Clinton used a personal email address to conduct government business while working as Secretary of State. How important is this issue to your vote for President in the 2016 general election; very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Very important       35%    29%    33%
Somewhat important   16     21     18
Not so important     18     16     18
Not important at all 31     33     29
DK/NA                 -      1      1
 
 
29. If Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2016, does her using a personal email address to conduct government business while working as Secretary of State make you more likely to vote for her in the general election, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
More likely           2%     3%     3%
Less likely          42     37     39
No difference        55     58     56
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
 
30. Do you think Clinton has given satisfactory answers on this matter, or do you think there are serious questions that remain to be answered?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Satisfactory answers 34%    34%    38%
Questions remain     57     54     54
DK/NA                 9     12      7
 
 
31. Do you support or oppose a congressional investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a personal email address to conduct government business while working as Secretary of State?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Support              52%    47%    50%
Oppose               43     45     45
DK/NA                 5      8      5
 
 
32. Do you believe that a Congressional investigation into this matter is justified or is politically motivated?