June 17, 2015 - Clinton, Rubio Close In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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  • FLORIDA: Clinton 47 - Rubio 44
  • OHIO: Kasich 47 - Clinton 40, Clinton 43 - Paul 43
  • PENNSYLVANIA: Rubio 44 - Clinton 43, Paul 45 - Clinton 44
U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida runs best against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 presidential matchups with eight top Republican contenders in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. Voters in each state say by margins of 8 to 14 percentage points that the Democratic front-runner is not honest and trustworthy.

Clinton still leads or is in a too-close-to-call matchup in every race in each state, except for Ohio, where native son Gov. John Kasich leads 47 - 40 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

Clinton's favorability ratings are 47 - 45 percent in Florida, negative 44 - 48 percent in Ohio and 46 - 48 percent in Pennsylvania.

She is not honest and trustworthy, Florida voters say 51 - 43 percent, Ohio voters say 53 - 40 percent and Pennsylvania voters say 54 - 40 percent.

"It's a long way until Election Day, but in the critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida has a tiny edge over the GOP field, "said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"Most of the eight GOP hopefuls are within striking distance of Secretary Hillary Clinton in at least one of the three states. In Ohio, Gov. Kasich leads."

"But perhaps more troubling for her than the continuing slide is how she is perceived by voters who continue to say she is not honest and trustworthy."

"But potentially more disturbing for her are low marks for caring about voter needs and problems. This is where Democrats almost always fare better than Republicans. Yet in this survey many Republican candidates do as well or better than does she," Brown added.

Florida

Florida is the bluest Swing State so far as Secretary Clinton gets 47 percent to U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio's 44 percent. She gets 46 percent to former Gov. Jeb Bush's 42 percent. In other matchups:
  • Clinton tops New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 46 - 35 percent;
  • She beats U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky 46 - 39 percent;
  • She tops former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 49 - 38 percent;
  • Clinton thumps Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker 48 - 38 percent;
  • She buries U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 48 - 37 percent;
  • Clinton bashes Ohio Gov. John Kasich 48 - 35 percent.
Being honest and trustworthy is the most important quality in deciding their vote, 39 percent of Florida voters say, while 28 percent most want strong leadership qualities and 32 percent most want a candidate who cares about their needs and problems.

Voters say 50 - 34 percent that Rubio is honest and trustworthy; 52 - 33 percent that he has strong leadership qualities and 53 - 37 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

Bush scores 52 - 36 percent on being honest, 62 - 29 percent on strong leadership and 48 - 43 percent for caring for voters' needs and problems.

Clinton is not honest, voters say 51 - 43 percent, but she is a strong leader, voters say 61 - 37 percent. She gets a divided 48 - 46 percent on caring for voters' needs and problems.

Florida voters give Clinton a split 47 - 45 percent favorability, with Rubio at a 38 - 33 percent favorability rating and Bush at 42 - 40 percent. Scores for other Republicans are:
  • Negative 25 - 43 percent for Christie;
  • Negative 33 - 39 percent for Huckabee;
  • Negative 30 - 35 percent for Paul;
  • 27 - 25 percent for Walker, with 47 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion;
  • Negative 25 - 32 percent for Cruz.
"Secretary Clinton continues to out-poll most major Republican wannabes in the Sunshine State. She holds her own when matched against the GOP's two native sons, former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio. The margin stems from her ability to keep the gender gap running in her favor. She holds low double digit leads among women when matched against either man and that is enough to make the difference" Brown said.

Ohio

Clinton suffers her biggest setback in Ohio, trailing Gov. John Kasich 47 - 40 percent, but she has other tight races against Republican contenders:
  • Edging Christie 44 - 39 percent;
  • Splitting with Paul 43 - 43 percent;
  • Squeaking past Huckabee 46 - 41 percent;
  • Taking 42 percent to Bush's 41 percent;
  • Getting 45 percent to Rubio's 42 percent;
  • Holding 44 percent to Walker's 40 percent;
  • Topping Cruz 47 - 39 percent.
For 38 percent of Ohio voters, honesty is the top quality in a candidate, with 27 percent looking mostly for a strong leader and 32 percent seeking someone who cares about their needs.

Voters say 61 - 28 percent that Kasich is honest; 70 - 21 percent that he has strong leadership qualities and 58 - 34 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

Paul is honest, voters say 45 - 31 percent and a strong leader, voters say 42 - 33 percent. He cares about their needs and problems, voters say 44 - 32 percent.

Clinton is not honest, voters say 53 - 40 percent, but she is a strong leader, voters say 60 - 37 percent. Voters split 48 - 48 percent on whether she cares about their needs.

Clinton gets a negative 44 - 48 percent favorability rating, with a positive 48 - 32 percent score for Kasich and a divided 35 - 33 percent score for Paul. Ratings for other Republicans are:
  • Negative 26 - 42 percent for Christie;
  • 33 - 35 percent for Huckabee;
  • Negative 29 - 39 percent for Bush;
  • 27 - 20 percent for Rubio;
  • 21 - 20 percent for Walker, with 57 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion;
  • Negative 21 - 35 percent for Cruz.
"Gov. John Kasich's 47 - 40 percent lead over Secretary Clinton is the largest of any GOP candidate in any of the three states. With Ohio being such a critically important state - no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying it - that gives Gov. Kasich a key talking point about why he should be the nominee," Brown said.

Pennsylvania

Clinton finds herself in several tight races in Pennsylvania, including a matchup with Rubio, where he gets 44 percent to her 43 percent, and Paul, who gets 45 percent to her 44 percent, and even Christie, who gets 41 percent to her 43 percent.

Results of other matchups show:
  • Clinton beats Huckabee 46 - 39 percent;
  • She edges Bush 45 - 41 percent;
  • Clinton squeaks by Walker 46 - 41 percent;
  • She tops Cruz 47 - 40 percent.
Honesty is the most important quality in a presidential candidate, 40 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, while 28 percent most want a strong leader and 28 percent most want a candidate who cares about their needs and problems.

Rubio is honest and trustworthy, voters say 43 - 29 percent, and a strong leader, voters say 46 - 25 percent. He cares about their needs, voters say 41 - 32 percent.

Voters say 50 - 29 percent that Paul is honest; 45 - 33 percent that he is a strong leader and 48 - 34 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

Clinton is not honest, voters say 54 - 40 percent, but she is a strong leader, voters say 57 - 41 percent. She doesn't care about their needs and problems, voters say 51 - 45 percent.

Clinton gets a divided 46 - 48 percent favorability rating in Pennsylvania, compared to Rubio's 33 - 20 percent. Ratings for the Republicans are:
  • Negative 35 - 50 percent for Christie;
  • 33 - 34 percent for Huckabee;
  • Negative 30 - 42 percent for Bush;
  • 34 - 34 percent for Paul;
  • 32 - 18 percent for Walker, with 50 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion;
  • 27 - 27 percent for Cruz.
"Bottom line, no one is stepping up to take a roundhouse at Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"She may look vulnerable on paper, but the GOP field is just not pressing her. Not a runaway by any measure, but imagine Clinton's numbers if she had the full trust of Pennsylvanians."

From June 4 - 15 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,147 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points;
  • 1,191 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points;
  • 970 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll


3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              46%    44%    43%
Christie             35     39     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      8      7      6
DK/NA                 7      7      7
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              46%    43%    44%
Paul                 39     43     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      5      4
DK/NA                 7      7      6
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              49%    46%    46%
Huckabee             38     41     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      6      5
DK/NA                 6      6      7
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              46%    42%    45%
Bush                 42     41     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      7      6
DK/NA                 7      7      6
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              47%    45%    43%
Rubio                44     42     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      5      4
DK/NA                 5      7      8
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Scott Walker the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              48%    44%    46%
Walker               38     40     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      4
DK/NA                 7      8      7
 
 
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              48%    47%    47%
Cruz                 37     39     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      6      4
DK/NA                 7      7      7
 
 
10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              48%    40%    45%
Kasich               35     47     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      5      5
DK/NA                 9      7      9
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            47%    44%    46%
Unfavorable          45     48     48
Hvn't hrd enough      8      7      3
REFUSED               1      1      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            42%    29%    30%
Unfavorable          40     39     42
Hvn't hrd enough     16     31     27
REFUSED               2      1      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            38%    27%    33%
Unfavorable          33     20     20
Hvn't hrd enough     28     53     46
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
14. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            27%    22%    28%
Unfavorable          18     19     16
Hvn't hrd enough     54     58     55
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
15. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            25%    26%    35%
Unfavorable          43     42     50
Hvn't hrd enough     30     30     14
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
16. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            25%    21%    27%
Unfavorable          32     35     27
Hvn't hrd enough     42     43     45
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
17. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            18%    13%    14%
Unfavorable          18     15     13
Hvn't hrd enough     64     72     72
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
18. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Lindsey Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            15%    15%    11%
Unfavorable          25     26     25
Hvn't hrd enough     59     59     64
REFUSED               2      1      1
 
 
19. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            33%    33%    33%
Unfavorable          39     35     34
Hvn't hrd enough     26     31     32
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
20. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Bobby Jindal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            20%    16%    19%
Unfavorable          25     19     19
Hvn't hrd enough     54     64     62
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
21. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            15%    48%    15%
Unfavorable          14     32      8
Hvn't hrd enough     70     19     75
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
22. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            12%     7%    11%
Unfavorable          19     15     19
Hvn't hrd enough     68     77     68
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
23. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            30%    35%    34%
Unfavorable          35     33     34
Hvn't hrd enough     34     30     30
REFUSED               1      1      2
 
 
24. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rick Perry favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            25%    23%    24%
Unfavorable          37     32     32
Hvn't hrd enough     37     45     43
REFUSED               1      -      1
 
 
25. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            20%    21%    38%
Unfavorable          36     31     43
Hvn't hrd enough     44     48     18
REFUSED               1      1      2
 
 
26. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            21%    24%    25%
Unfavorable          62     62     59
Hvn't hrd enough     15     12     15
REFUSED               2      2      1
 
 
27. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            27%    21%    32%
Unfavorable          25     22     18
Hvn't hrd enough     47     57     50
REFUSED               1      -      1
 
 
39. Which of these is the most important issue in deciding your vote in the 2016 general election for president: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, or taxes?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Economy and jobs     40%    46%    38%
Terrorism            12     11     11
Immigration           6      4      5
Federal deficit       7      5      9
Health care          14     15     15
Foreign policy        8      7      8
Climate change        5      4      4
Taxes                 4      4      7
DK/NA                 4      4      3
 
 
40. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  43%    40%    40%
No                   51     53     54
DK/NA                 7      7      6
 
 
41. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Jeb Bush is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  52%    42%    44%
No                   36     38     37
DK/NA                12     20     19
 
 
42. (Split Sample) Would you say that - John Kasich is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  24%    61%    29%
No                   19     28     21
DK/NA                57     11     51
 
 
43. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Rand Paul is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  45%    45%    50%
No                   25     31     29
DK/NA                29     24     21
 
 
44. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Marco Rubio is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  50%    37%    43%
No                   34     26     29
DK/NA                15     37     29
 
 
45. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Scott Walker is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  35%    35%    37%
No                   24     22     28
DK/NA                40     43     36
 
 
46. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  61%    60%    57%
No                   37     37     41
DK/NA                 3      3      3
 
 
47. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Jeb Bush has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  62%    49%    56%
No                   29     34     29
DK/NA                 9     17     15
 
 
48. (Split Sample) Would you say that - John Kasich has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  25%    70%    31%
No                   21     21     21
DK/NA                53      8     48
 
 
49. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Rand Paul has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  42%    42%    45%
No                   33     33     33
DK/NA                25     25     22
 
 
50. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Marco Rubio has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  52%    38%    46%
No                   33     25     25
DK/NA                15     37     29
 
 
51. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Scott Walker has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  39%    37%    40%
No                   24     21     22
DK/NA                37     42     38
 
 
52. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  48%    48%    45%
No                   46     48     51
DK/NA                 6      4      4
 
 
53. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Jeb Bush cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  48%    38%    41%
No                   43     46     46
DK/NA                 9     16     13
 
 
54. (Split Sample) Would you say that - John Kasich cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  23%    58%    29%
No                   28     34     24
DK/NA                48      9     47
 
 
55. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Rand Paul cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  42%    44%    48%
No                   36     32     34
DK/NA                22     24     19
 
 
56. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Marco Rubio cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  53%    33%    41%
No                   37     34     32
DK/NA                10     33     26
 
 
57. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Scott Walker cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes                  35%    33%    35%
No                   29     30     29
DK/NA                36     37     36
 
 
58. Which of these is the most important personal quality in deciding your vote in the 2016 general election for president: is it someone who is honest and trustworthy or is it someone who has strong leadership qualities or is it someone who cares about the needs and problems of people like you?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Honest/Trustworthy   39%    38%    40%
Strong leadership    28     27     28
Cares Needs/Problems 32     32     28
DK/NA                 2      4      3
 
 
Additional info by state:
Florida: Trends and Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Ohio: Trends and Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Pennsylvania: Trends and Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail