June 18, 2015 - GOP Plays 'Who's On First' In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Clinton Has Dem Bases Loaded Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Among the many runners in the 2016 Republican presidential primary game, no one has gotten past first base in three critical swing states, with two native sons leading in Florida, another native son ahead in Ohio and five candidates elbowing for first place in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is over 50 percent in each state, with a 38-percentage point lead in the closest race, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

In Florida, former Gov. Jeb Bush has 20 percent of Republican voters, with 18 percent for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and 9 percent for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. No other candidate is above 7 percent, with 13 percent undecided.

In Ohio, Gov. John Kasich leads the GOP pack with 19 percent, followed by Bush at 9 percent and Walker at 8 percent. No other candidate tops 7 percent, with 17 percent undecided.

In Pennsylvania, Rubio has 12 percent, with 11 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, 10 percent each for Bush and Ben Carson and 9 percent for Walker. No other candidate tops 7 percent, with 13 percent undecided.

"With so many Republican candidates, there is no clear leader in these key swing states in the race for the 2016 presidential nomination, "said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"Two favorite sons, former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, are ahead in Florida and have some legs in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Gov. John Kasich is Ohio's hometown favorite, but he's invisible in the other two states."

"Five candidates share the lead in Pennsylvania with none getting more than 12 percent of the vote. The GOP presidential race is clear as mud," Brown added.

A computation that combines the first and second choices of Republican voters in the three states shows:
  • Rubio - 36 percent in Florida, 17 percent in Ohio and 24 percent in Pennsylvania;
  • Bush - 33 percent in Florida, 20 percent in Ohio and 18 percent in Pennsylvania;
  • Walker - 15 percent in each state.
Rubio also has the best overall favorability rating in the Republican pack, 75 - 9 percent in Florida, 54 - 4 percent in Ohio and 57 - 5 percent in Pennsylvania.

"The favorability rating and combined first and second choice numbers show that in this crowded pack of candidates Sen. Rubio is making strong inroads with Republican primary voters and probably is the candidate who should be most heartened by the results of this poll," Brown said.

"The race for the Democratic nomination could not be more different. Secretary Clinton is far, far ahead and the criticisms of her and questions about her email and family foundation seem to be having no impact at all on her Democratic supporters. She remains the apple of the Democrats' eyes and at least at this point has little to worry about from her primary challengers."

Florida

Hillary Clinton is the choice of 64 percent of Florida Democrats, with 9 percent for Vice President Joseph Biden and 8 percent for U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Bush at 20 percent and Rubio at 18 percent dominate the Republican pack, with 9 percent for Walker, 7 percent for Carson, 6 percent for Huckabee, 5 percent for Paul and several candidates at 4 percent or less.

"Gov. Bush, the former mentor, and Sen. Rubio, the former protege are fighting it out among Sunshine State Republicans. Will any other Republican make a strong effort in the state's mid-March primary, given the hometown advantage enjoyed by the two leaders and the huge amount of money needed to make a competitive effort in the state?" Brown asked.

Ohio

Clinton leads among buckeye Democrats with 60 percent, with Biden at 13 percent and Sanders at 10 percent.

Behind Kasich at 19 percent, it's a scramble, with Bush at 9 percent, Walker at 8 percent and Rubio, Paul and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas at 7 percent each. Carson and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas have 6 percent each.

"The gender gap surrounding Hillary Clinton extends even to the Democratic primary in Ohio, where she wins 51 percent of men and 66 percent of women," Brown said.

Pennsylvania

Vice President Biden's credentials as a native son provide little help in Pennsylvania, where he trails Clinton 53 - 15 percent among Democrats, with 10 percent for Sanders.

Another native son, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, gets only 7 percent of Republican voters, trailing Rubio with 12 percent, Paul with 11 percent, Bush and Carson with 10 percent each and Walker with 9 percent.

"No native son advantage for Pennsylvanians Rick Santorum or Joseph Biden as they trail the front runners in their respective parties," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "They may hail from Butler and Scranton, but being sons of the Keystone State does not guarantee an easy path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue."

From June 4 - 15 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,147 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points, including 458 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points and 378 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.
  • 1,191 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, including 434 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 388 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.
  • 970 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points, including 413 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points and 402 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, and Scott Walker, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Bush                 20%     9%    10%
Carson                7      6     10
Christie              3      3      6
Cruz                  3      6      5
Fiorina               2      1      1
Graham                1      2      1
Huckabee              6      7      6
Jindal                1      -      -
Kasich                1     19      1
Pataki                1      -      -
Paul                  5      7     11
Perry                 4      2      1
Rubio                18      7     12
Santorum              1      2      7
Trump                 3      1      4
Walker                9      8      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1
DK/NA                13     17     13
 
 
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Who is your second choice?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1...
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Bush                 16%    14%    10%
Carson                5      5      6
Christie              3      5      6
Cruz                  5      7      8
Fiorina               3      2      4
Graham                -      1      -
Huckabee              6      5      3
Jindal                2      1      3
Kasich                3     12      1
Pataki                2      -      1
Paul                  4      8      5
Perry                 5      5      5
Rubio                21     12     14
Santorum              4      2     12
Trump                 2      3      2
Walker                7      9      7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1
DK/NA                 9     10     12
 
 
1B. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, and Scott Walker, for whom would you vote? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%)
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     Q1 & Q1A COMBINED.....
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Bush                 33%    20%    18%
Carson               11     10     15
Christie              5      7     11
Cruz                  7     11     11
Fiorina               4      3      4
Graham                1      3      1
Huckabee             10     10      8
Jindal                2      1      3
Kasich                4     29      3
Pataki                3      -      1
Paul                  9     13     16
Perry                 9      6      6
Rubio                36     17     24
Santorum              5      4     17
Trump                 4      4      6
Walker               15     15     15
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2
DK/NA                20     25     23
 
 
2. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders and Jim Webb, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Biden                 9%    13%    15%
Chafee                -      -      -
Clinton              64     60     53
O'Malley              1      1      1
Sanders               8     10     10
Webb                  -      -      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      3      4
DK/NA                13     11     15
 
 
2A. (If candidate chosen q2) Who is your second choice?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Biden                45%    42%    37%
Chafee                1      -      4
Clinton              13     19     17
O'Malley              4      4      6
Sanders              11     13      9
Webb                  3      2      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      3
DK/NA                21     19     22
 
 
2B. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, for whom would you vote? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%)
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     Q2 & Q2A COMBINED...
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Biden                45%    48%    45%
Chafee                1      -      4
Clinton              74     75     67
O'Malley              4      5      6
Sanders              16     22     17
Webb                  3      2      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      4      6
DK/NA                30     27     33
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            82%    81%    79%
Unfavorable          11     14     15
Hvn't hrd enough      6      5      4
REFUSED               1      1      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            69%    49%    49%
Unfavorable          18     20     25
Hvn't hrd enough     12     31     26
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            75%    54%    57%
Unfavorable           9      4      5
Hvn't hrd enough     16     41     38
REFUSED               1      1      -
 
 
14. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            54%    44%    53%
Unfavorable           7      9      5
Hvn't hrd enough     38     48     42
REFUSED               -      -      1
 
 
15. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            45%    41%    43%
Unfavorable          35     35     45
Hvn't hrd enough     20     24     11
REFUSED               1      -      1
 
 
16. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            49%    44%    48%
Unfavorable          16     12     13
Hvn't hrd enough     33     43     39
REFUSED               2      1      -
 
 
17. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            37%    27%    28%
Unfavorable           8      6      5
Hvn't hrd enough     55     67     67
REFUSED               -      -      -
 
 
18. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Lindsey Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            28%    26%    17%
Unfavorable          23     20     20
Hvn't hrd enough     46     54     62
REFUSED               3      -      1
 
 
19. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            65%    62%    53%
Unfavorable          20     19     25
Hvn't hrd enough     15     20     21
REFUSED               1      -      1
 
 
20. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Bobby Jindal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            44%    36%    35%
Unfavorable          12      5      6
Hvn't hrd enough     43     58     58
REFUSED               1      1      -
 
 
21. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            31%    74%    24%
Unfavorable          10     11      4
Hvn't hrd enough     59     14     71
REFUSED               -      1      -
 
 
22. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            19%    11%    17%
Unfavorable          15     13     19
Hvn't hrd enough     66     74     63
REFUSED               -      2      1
 
 
23. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            50%    52%    53%
Unfavorable          26     21     16
Hvn't hrd enough     23     27     32
REFUSED               1      1      -
 
 
24. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rick Perry favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            50%    53%    46%
Unfavorable          22     16     16
Hvn't hrd enough     27     31     37
REFUSED               1      -      1
 
 
25. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            47%    40%    57%
Unfavorable          22     21     30
Hvn't hrd enough     30     39     13
REFUSED               1      -      1
 
 
26. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            30%    33%    34%
Unfavorable          51     53     51
Hvn't hrd enough     15     13     14
REFUSED               3      2      1
 
 
27. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            59%    43%    52%
Unfavorable           8      2      7
Hvn't hrd enough     32     55     41
REFUSED               1      -      -
 
 
28. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            73%    71%    76%
Unfavorable          11     18     12
Hvn't hrd enough     15      7     11
REFUSED               1      4      1
 
 
29. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Lincoln Chafee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable             7%     5%     6%
Unfavorable          15     15      7
Hvn't hrd enough     77     80     87
REFUSED               1      -      -
 
 
30. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            11%    11%    13%
Unfavorable          17     13     16
Hvn't hrd enough     72     75     70
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
31. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            26%    34%    29%
Unfavorable          14     15     16
Hvn't hrd enough     59     52     54
REFUSED               1      -      1
 
 
32. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            11%    11%     5%
Unfavorable          13     11      9
Hvn't hrd enough     76     78     85
REFUSED               -      -      -
 
 
Additional info by state:
Florida: Trends and Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Ohio: Trends and Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Pennsylvania: Trends and Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail