March 9, 2016 - Trump Buries Rubio 2-1 In Florida GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Kasich Trying To Catch Trump In Ohio Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
PDF format
Additional Trend Information

Donald Trump leads native son Sen. Marco Rubio 45 - 22 percent among Florida likely Republican primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today, with 18 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and 8 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

This compares to a 44 - 28 percent Trump lead over Rubio in a February 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In Ohio, Gov. Kasich trails Trump 38 - 32 percent, compared to a 31 - 26 percent Trump lead February 23 Cruz has 16 percent, with 9 percent for Rubio.

In Florida, 6 percent of voters remain undecided and 19 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

In Ohio, 5 percent of voters remain undecided and 27 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

"The effort within the Republican Party to stop Donald Trump from winning the presidential nomination appears unlikely to stop him from taking Florida's delegate-rich winner-take-all primary. But that effort might have a better chance of success in Ohio where Gov. John Kasich is giving 'The Donald' a tougher run for his money," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"In the Sunshine State, hometown hero Sen. Marco Rubio is 23 points behind Trump and isn't even doing much better than Sen. Ted Cruz. Also discouraging for the anti-Trump folks is that Trump voters say they are less likely than those supporting any of the other candidates to change their mind in the closing days."

"With Florida the largest state awarding delegates on a winner-take-all basis, a Trump win would increase even more his chances of winning the nomination," Brown added. "Between the two March 15 battlegrounds, 165 of the 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination are available.

"Kasich, who has been the governor for five years, has one of the highest job approval ratings of any governor in the nine states surveyed by Quinnipiac University."

Florida

Among Florida likely Republican primary voters, Trump leads Rubio 39 - 27 percent among women and 50 - 17 percent among men. Self-described Tea Party members go 48 percent for Trump, 40 percent for Cruz and 9 percent for Rubio. Trump gets 39 percent of white, born-again evangelicals, with 30 percent for Cruz and 21 percent for Rubio.

Rubio also trails Trump among voters who say they are "very conservative," "somewhat conservative" or "moderate or liberal."

He also trails among likely Republican primary voters in every age group.

Ohio

There is a divisive gender gap among Ohio likely Republican primary voters as men back Trump over Kasich 44 - 29 percent while women go to Kasich 36 - 31 percent.

Cruz gets 38 percent of Ohio Tea Party members, with 33 percent for Trump and 14 percent for Kasich. Kasich gets 32 percent of white, born-again evangelicals, with 29 percent for Trump and 24 percent for Cruz.

Voters 18 to 44 years old go to Trump over Kasich 41 - 24 percent. Trump gets 38 percent of voters 45 to 64 years old to Kasich's 35 percent. Kasich gets 38 percent of voters over 65 years old to Trump's 33 percent.

From March 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 657 Florida likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 685 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. (FL) If the Republican primary were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, or Trump?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cruz                 18%    40%    30%    30%    14%     8%    22%    14%    17%    19%
Kasich                8      2      6      3      5     17      8      8     13      6
Rubio                22      9     21     22     21     24     17     27     25     21
Trump                45     48     39     39     57     41     50     39     40     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1      -      2      1      1
DK/NA                 6      1      4      4      2     10      3      9      4      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......
                     18-44  45-64  65+
 
Cruz                 26%    18%    14%
Kasich                8      6     12
Rubio                16     23     25
Trump                42     46     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1
DK/NA                 8      5      5
 
 
1A. (FL)(If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Rubio         Trump
 
Made up              79%           74%           76%           85%
Might change         19            24            23            14
DK/NA                 1             1             1             1
 
 
1. (OH) If the Republican primary were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, or Trump?
                     OHIO LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS.....................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cruz                 16%    38%    24%    36%    14%     3%    17%    15%    18%    16%
Kasich               32     14     32     21     34     38     29     36     42     28
Rubio                 9     10     10      8     12      9      6     12     10      8
Trump                38     33     29     32     38     44     44     31     27     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      5      5      3      2      6      5      5      3      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......
                     18-44  45-64  65+
 
Cruz                 17%    18%    15%
Kasich               24     35     38
Rubio                13      6     10
Trump                41     38     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      4      4
 
 
1A. (OH)(If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     OHIO LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS.................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Kasich        Trump
 
Made up              72%           70%           69%           81%
Might change         27            29            30            18
DK/NA                 1             1             1             -
 
 

Florida Sample and Methodology detail
Ohio Sample and Methodology detail