March 14, 2016 - Trump Tops Rubio In Florida, Ties Kasich In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Clinton Leads Sanders In Two Critical Primaries Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
PDF format

Additional Ohio Trend Information
Additional Florida Trend Information

Donald Trump tops native son Sen Marco Rubio 2-1 in Florida's Republican primary, while another native son, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, ties the GOP front-runner in Ohio's Republican primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll completed last night and released today. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders in Democratic primaries in these two key states

Separate surveys of likely Republican and Democratic primary voters in Florida and Ohio show:

Florida Republican - Trump with 46 percent, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 22 percent, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 14 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 10 percent.

Florida Democrat - Clinton over Sanders 60 - 34 percent.

Ohio Republican - Trump and Kasich tied at 38 - 38 percent, with Cruz at 16 percent and Rubio at 3 percent.

Ohio Democrat - Clinton edges Sanders 51 - 46 percent.

March 9 Quinnipiac University surveys showed Trump over Rubio 45 - 22 percent among Florida Republicans and Trump leading Kasich 38 - 32 percent in Ohio.

Also on March 9, Clinton topped Sanders 62 - 32 percent among Florida Democrats and lead Sanders 52 - 43 percent in Ohio.

"At least when it comes to this presidential primary, Florida might change its nickname from Sunshine State to Landslide State," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Sen. Marco Rubio, who has staked his future on wining his home state, looks like he'll soon be toast. He trails GOP leader Donald Trump by more than 20 points with polling through Sunday night."

"There are very few examples of candidates making up that much ground in 24 hours."

"Ohio is a real contest on both sides. Trump and Gov. John Kasich are in a dead heat for the Buckeye State's GOP delegates. Almost as close is the Democratic race where Sen. Bernie Sanders has closed 9-point deficit to the smallest of margins. Sanders has the momentum, but the question is whether he can win as he did in Michigan or just come close as in Iowa."

Florida

Among Florida likely Republican primary voters, Trump leads Rubio 41 - 25 percent among women and 52 - 20 percent among men. Trump also leads by margins of 2-1 or more among every stripe of Republican, from 47 - 13 percent among Tea Party members to 44 - 24 percent among voters who say they are "moderate or liberal."

Among Florida likely Democratic primary voters, there is no gender gap: women back Clinton over Sanders 60 - 35 percent and men back her 60 - 33 percent. Self-professed "very liberal Democrats back Sanders 57 - 39 percent, while Clinton takes other Democrats by wide margins.

Ohio

There is a gender gap among Ohio likely Republican primary voters as men back Trump over Kasich 40 - 33 percent while women go to Kasich 44 - 37 percent. Tea Party members go to Trump over Kasich 36 - 18 percent, with 38 percent for Cruz. Kasich and Trump split white, born-again evangelicals 33 - 33 percent.

There is a larger gender gap among Ohio likely Democratic primary voters as women back Clinton over Sanders 56 - 39 percent, while men back Sanders 55 - 43 percent. Sanders has a big 64 - 36 percent lead among "very liberal" voters and 50 percent of "somewhat liberal" voters to Clinton's 46 percent. She leads 59 - 38 percent among "moderate or conservative voters"

From March 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

615 Florida likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points;

519 Florida likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points;

721 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points;

543 Ohio likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.

Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. (FL) If the Republican primary were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, or Trump?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cruz                 14%    30%    22%    28%    10%     4%    13%    15%    17%    13%
Kasich               10      3     10      4      7     18      9     11     12      9
Rubio                22     13     19     18     25     24     20     25     28     20
Trump                46     47     43     42     55     44     52     41     36     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      4      -      -      3      -      -      2
DK/NA                 6      5      5      4      2     10      3      9      7      6
 
 
1A. (FL)(If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Rubio         Trump
 
Made up              86%           83%           86%           91%
Might change         13            17            13             9
DK/NA                 -             -             1             -
 
 
2. (FL) If the Democratic primary were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Clinton or Sanders?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS....................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              60%    39%    61%    69%    60%    60%    61%    60%
Sanders              34     57     35     24     33     35     33     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      4      3      7      7      5      6      6
 
 
2A. (FL)(If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS...
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2
                     Tot           Clinton       Sanders
 
Made up              88%           91%           83%
Might change         12             9            16
DK/NA                 -             -             1
 
 
1. (OH) If the Republican primary were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, or Trump?
                     OHIO LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS.....................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cruz                 16%    38%    28%    32%    12%     5%    21%    11%    16%    17%
Kasich               38     18     33     27     41     49     33     44     47     34
Rubio                 3      2      2      3      3      2      2      3      4      2
Trump                38     36     33     33     43     39     40     37     31     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      7      4      5      -      4      4      5      2      5
 
 
1A. (OH) (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     OHIO LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS.................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Kasich        Trump
 
Made up              80%           78%           78%           84%
Might change         19            22            21            16
DK/NA                 -             -             1             -
 
 
2. (OH) If the Democratic primary were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Clinton or Sanders?
                     OHIO LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              51%    36%    46%    59%    43%    56%    45%    53%
Sanders              46     64     50     38     55     39     51     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 4      1      4      3      3      4      3      4
 
 
2A. (OH) (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     OHIO LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS......
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2
                     Tot           Clinton       Sanders
 
Made up              87%           89%           86%
Might change         13            11            14
DK/NA                 -             -             -
 
 

Florida Sample and Methodology detail
Ohio Sample and Methodology detail