September 17, 2014 - Colorado's Hickenlooper Down 10 Points In Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat Scores Low On Honesty, Caring, Leadership Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper ties former U. S. Rep. Bob Beauprez, the Republican challenger, among women and trails among all likely voters 50 - 40 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian candidate Matthew Hess and Green Party candidate Harry Hempy each have 3 percent.

Women likely voters are divided, with 46 percent for Gov. Hickenlooper and 47 percent for Beauprez, while men back the Republican 54 - 34 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. This survey of likely voters can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

Beauprez leads 89 - 5 percent among Republicans and 50 - 37 percent among independent voters, while Hickenlooper takes Democrats 93 - 4 percent.

Their mind is made up, 77 percent of Colorado likely voters say, while 22 percent say they could change their mind in the next seven weeks.

With Hess out of the race, the results among likely voters are 52 percent for Beauprez, 40 percent for Hickenlooper and 3 percent for Hempy.

With Hempy out of the race, Beauprez leads 51 - 41 percent with 4 percent for Hess.

"Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper is behind the challenger on the key qualities voters want in a leader: honesty, caring and leadership," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

"Pundits were predicting that Gov. Hickenlooper faced a close race for reelection. Instead, he's got a mad dash to make up a double-digit deficit. The Democrat does not get the traditional strong support from women to offset Bob Beauprez's army of support from men."

By a 49 - 31 percent margin, Colorado likely voters have a favorable opinion of Beauprez. Hickenlooper has a negative 43 - 51 percent favorability.

About 90 percent of voters don't know enough about either Hess or Hempy to form an opinion of either one of them.

Beauprez has higher ratings than Hickenlooper in key character traits:
  • Voters say 52 - 28 percent that Beauprez is honest and trustworthy, compared to 48 - 44 percent for Hickenlooper;
  • Beauprez cares about their needs and problems, voters say 51 - 35 percent, compared to 48 percent who say Hickenlooper cares and 46 percent who say he doesn't care;
  • Beauprez has strong leadership qualities, voters say 59 - 23 percent, compared to 51 - 44 percent for the governor.
The economy/jobs is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote for governor, 39 percent of Colorado likely voters say, with 17 percent each for energy/environment and education and 15 percent for gun policy.

"That old reliable bread-and-butter issue, the economy/jobs, is still the most important issue for four out of 10 Colorado likely voters," Malloy said.

From September 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,211 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were John Hickenlooper the Democrat, Bob Beauprez the Republican, Matthew Hess the Libertarian, and Harry Hempy the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hickenlooper, Beauprez, Hess, or Hempy? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Hickenlooper         40%     5%    93%    37%    34%    46%
Beauprez             50     89      4     50     54     47
Hess                  3      2      1      4      5      2
Hempy                 3      1      1      5      4      2
SOMEONE ELSE(VOL)     1      1      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 3      2      1      4      2      3
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Hickenlooper  Beauprez
 
Mind made up         77%    80%           81%
Might change         22     19            18
DK/NA                 1      -             1
 
 
2a. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING HESS VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT HESS...............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Hickenlooper         40%     5%    93%    37%    34%    46%
Beauprez             52     90      4     51     57     47
Hempy                 3      1      1      6      5      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 4      2      1      4      3      4
 
 
2b. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING HEMPY VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT HEMPY..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Hickenlooper         41%     6%    93%    38%    36%    47%
Beauprez             51     89      4     50     55     47
Hess                  4      2      1      5      6      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 3      2      1      4      2      3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of John Hickenlooper favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            43%    11%    86%    43%    36%    49%
Unfavorable          51     82      7     51     60     42
Hvn't hrd enough      5      6      5      5      4      7
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Bob Beauprez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            49%    83%     6%    48%    55%    42%
Unfavorable          31      3     68     31     29     34
Hvn't hrd enough     19     13     25     20     16     23
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      -      1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Matthew Hess favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             4%     4%     2%     5%     6%     2%
Unfavorable           4      4      5      4      5      4
Hvn't hrd enough     90     91     93     91     88     93
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Harry Hempy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             3%     3%     1%     5%     5%     2%
Unfavorable           4      6      2      3      6      3
Hvn't hrd enough     91     90     94     92     88     94
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      1
 
 
20. Would you say that John Hickenlooper - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  48%    26%    85%    45%    44%    52%
No                   44     65      8     48     50     38
DK/NA                 8      9      8      7      6     10
 
 
21. Would you say that John Hickenlooper - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  48%    24%    88%    46%    46%    50%
No                   46     69      7     49     51     41
DK/NA                 6      7      5      5      2      9
 
 
22. Would you say that John Hickenlooper - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  51%    29%    85%    52%    45%    57%
No                   44     68     11     44     51     38
DK/NA                 5      3      5      4      4      6
 
 
23. Would you say that Bob Beauprez - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  52%    82%    20%    48%    59%    45%
No                   28      7     50     32     26     31
DK/NA                20     11     30     20     15     24
 
 
24. Would you say that Bob Beauprez - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  51%    84%    14%    50%    58%    45%
No                   35      8     68     35     32     37
DK/NA                14      9     18     15     10     18
 
 
25. Would you say that Bob Beauprez - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  59%    84%    28%    59%    65%    53%
No                   23      5     45     23     22     23
DK/NA                18     11     26     17     13     23
 
 
26. Which one of these six issues matters most in deciding how you vote for Governor: the economy and jobs, the death penalty, taxes, energy and the environment, gun policy or education?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Economy/Jobs         39%    43%    32%    40%    38%    39%
Death penalty         3      4      1      4      3      3
Taxes                 7      9      5      6      6      9
Energy/Environment   17     14     21     16     15     18
Gun policy           15     19      8     15     20      9
Education            17      8     31     16     14     20
DK/NA                 3      3      2      4      4      3
 
 

Demographic Summary