September 18, 2014 - GOP Challenger Leads Udall In Colorado Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; More Than One-Third Are Voting Against Obama Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Colorado U.S. Sen. Mark Udall trails U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, his Republican challenger, 48 - 40 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent candidate Steve Shogan gets 8 percent.

With Shogan out of the race, Rep. Gardner leads 52 - 42 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. This survey of likely voters can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

In the three-way matchup, Gardner leads Udall among men 53 - 34 percent, with 9 percent for Shogan. Women go 46 percent for Udall, 43 percent for Gardner and 7 percent for Shogan.

Independent voters go 42 percent for Gardner, 40 percent for Udall and 15 percent for Shogan. Republicans back Gardner over Udall 88 - 5 percent with 5 percent for Shogan. Democrats back Udall over Gardner 90 - 3 percent, with 2 percent for Shogan.

Their mind is made up, 84 percent of Udall voters and 87 percent of Gardner backers say, while 63 percent of Shogan supporters say they could change their mind in the next seven weeks.

"With control of the US Senate in play, the Rocky Mountain State gives a jolting shot of adrenaline to the G.O.P," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

"For Sen. Mark Udall, the head to head numbers are bad and the character numbers are worse.

"U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, for now, is in the driver's seat in a race with National importance."

Gardner has a 47 - 37 percent favorability rating among Colorado likely voters, while Sen. Udall gets a negative 42 - 50 percent favorability. For Shogan, 86 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

Their U.S. Senate vote is a vote against President Barack Obama, 37 percent of Colorado likely voters say, while 13 percent say it is a vote for the president and 49 percent say Obama is not much of a factor.

The Republican challenger outscores the Democratic incumbent on key character traits:
  • Voters say 54 - 28 percent that Gardner is honest and trustworthy, compared to 42 percent who say Udall is honest and trustworthy and 46 percent who say he is not;
  • Gardner cares about their needs and problems, voters say 51 - 37 percent, compared to Udall's 46 - 47 percent split;
  • The challenger has strong leadership qualities, voters say 57 - 25 percent, compared to 51 - 41 percent for the incumbent.
From September 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,211 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat, Cory Gardner the Republican, and Steve Shogan running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Udall, Gardner, or Shogan? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Udall                40%     5%    90%    40%    34%    46%
Gardner              48     88      3     42     53     43
Shogan                8      5      2     15      9      7
SOMEONE ELSE(VOL)     -      -      1      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      2      4      3      3      3
 
 
7a. (If candidate chosen q7) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q7..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q7
                     Tot    Udall Gardner Shogan
 
Mind made up         82%    84%    87%    37%
Might change         18     15     12     63
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -
 
 
8. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q7 ASKING SHOGAN VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP Q7 WITHOUT SHOGAN.............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Udall                42%     5%    90%    43%    37%    47%
Gardner              52     92      4     49     58     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 5      3      5      6      4      6
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Mark Udall favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            42%    10%    87%    40%    37%    47%
Unfavorable          50     82      4     53     57     43
Hvn't hrd enough      7      7      8      6      6      8
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Cory Gardner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            47%    83%     6%    43%    55%    40%
Unfavorable          37      7     75     40     32     42
Hvn't hrd enough     15     10     19     17     13     17
REFUSED               1      -      -      -      -      1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Steve Shogan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             6%     5%     3%     9%     8%     4%
Unfavorable           7      7      8      3      8      6
Hvn't hrd enough     86     86     88     88     83     89
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      1
 
 
12. Would you say that Mark Udall - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  42%    18%    81%    38%    40%    44%
No                   46     71      7     48     50     41
DK/NA                12     10     12     14     10     14
 
 
13. Would you say that Mark Udall - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  46%    19%    86%    44%    42%    49%
No                   47     72      7     49     52     41
DK/NA                 8      9      7      7      6     10
 
 
14. Would you say that Mark Udall - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  51%    28%    87%    48%    46%    56%
No                   41     65      6     41     46     35
DK/NA                 8      7      8     11      8      9
 
 
15. Would you say that Cory Gardner - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  54%    85%    20%    48%    61%    46%
No                   28      6     55     29     23     32
DK/NA                19      9     25     23     16     22
 
 
16. Would you say that Cory Gardner - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  51%    85%    11%    47%    57%    44%
No                   37      6     75     37     32     41
DK/NA                13      9     14     16     11     14
 
 
17. Would you say that Cory Gardner - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  57%    81%    25%    59%    61%    53%
No                   25      6     53     23     24     26
DK/NA                18     13     22     18     15     20
 
 
18. Which one of these six issues matters most in deciding how you vote for United States Senator: the economy and jobs, the new federal health care law, immigration issues, energy and the environment, the issue of abortion, or gun policy?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Economy/Jobs         34%    37%    31%    34%    36%    32%
New health care law  18     21     14     17     16     19
Immigration issues   13     15      8     14     10     15
Energy/Environment   12      7     17     15     13     11
Abortion             11      5     22      8      5     16
Gun policy            9     11      6      8     13      5
DK/NA                 4      4      3      4      6      2
 
 
19. Do you think of your vote for United States Senator as a vote for Barack Obama, or as a vote against Barack Obama, or isn't Barack Obama much of a factor in your vote?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
For Obama            13%     2%    34%     8%     9%    16%
Against Obama        37     69      1     33     39     34
Not a factor         49     29     60     57     51     46
DK/NA                 2      1      4      2      1      3
 
 

Demographic Summary