October 15, 2014 - Beauprez Slips In Colorado Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Shift By Women Helps Hickenlooper Narrow Gap Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
PDF format

In the Colorado governor's race, shifts by women and independent likely voters away from former U. S. Rep. Bob Beauprez leave the Republican challenger at 46 percent, with 42 percent for Gov. John Hickenlooper, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian candidate Matthew Hess has 5 percent, with 1 percent for Green Party candidate Harry Hempy. Another 6 percent are undecided.

This compares to a 50 - 40 percent likely voter lead for Beauprez in a September 17 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

With Hess out of the race, Beauprez gets 48 percent to Hickenlooper's 43 percent, with 2 percent for Hempy. With Hempy out, Beauprez gets 46 percent to Hickenlooper's 43 percent, with 5 percent for Hess.

In the four-way race today, women back Hickenlooper over Beauprez 50 - 41 percent, with 2 percent for Hess and 1 percent for Hempy. This compares to last month's results, with women going 47 percent for Beauprez and 46 percent for Hickenlooper. Men back the Republican over the Democrat 51 - 34 percent, with 7 percent for Hess and 1 percent for Hempy, little changed from September 17.

Independent voters are split with 42 percent for Hickenlooper, 41 percent for Beauprez, 11 percent for Hess and 1 percent for Hempy. Four weeks ago, these voters backed Beauprez over Hickenlooper 50 - 37 percent. Democrats today go to the governor 90 - 3 percent, while Republicans back their challenger 92 - 5 percent.

"After seeming to waver in our last survey, women and independent voters pull Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper back from the abyss and reinvigorate a race that's very close," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

With three weeks until Election Day, 84 percent of Colorado likely voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 16 percent say they might change their mind.

By a small 48 - 44 percent margin, Colorado likely voters have a favorable opinion of Hickenlooper. Beauprez gets a 45 - 36 percent favorability.

Hess and Hempy remain largely unknown as 86 percent of voters don't know enough about Hess to form an opinion and 88 percent don't know enough about Hempy.

From October 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 988 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll


1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were John Hickenlooper the Democrat, Bob Beauprez the Republican, Matthew Hess the Libertarian, and Harry Hempy the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hickenlooper, Beauprez, Hess, or Hempy? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Hickenlooper         42%     5%    90%    42%    34%    50%
Beauprez             46     92      3     41     51     41
Hess                  5      -      1     11      7      2
Hempy                 1      -      1      1      1      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      1      -
DK/NA                 6      2      4      5      6      5
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were John Hickenlooper the Democrat, Bob Beauprez the Republican, Matthew Hess the Libertarian, and Harry Hempy the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hickenlooper, Beauprez, Hess, or Hempy? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014
 
Hickenlooper         42      40
Beauprez             46      50
Hess                  5       3
Hempy                 1       3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1
DK/NA                 6       3
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Hickenlooper  Beauprez
 
Mind made up         84%    83%           87%
Might change         16     16            12
DK/NA                 1      1             1
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN
                     Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014
 
Mind made up         84      77
Might change         16      22
DK/NA                 1       1
 
 
2a. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING HESS VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT HESS...............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Hickenlooper         43%     5%    91%    44%    36%    51%
Beauprez             48     92      3     46     54     41
Hempy                 2      -      1      3      2      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      1      -
DK/NA                 7      2      4      7      7      7
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING HESS VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT HESS
                     Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014
 
Hickenlooper         43      40
Beauprez             48      52
Hempy                 2       3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1
DK/NA                 7       4
 
 
2b. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING HEMPY VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT HEMPY..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Hickenlooper         43%     5%    91%    42%    35%    51%
Beauprez             46     92      4     41     51     41
Hess                  5      -      1     12      8      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      1      -
DK/NA                 6      2      4      5      6      5
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING HEMPY VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT HEMPY
                     Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014
 
Hickenlooper         43      41
Beauprez             46      51
Hess                  5       4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1
DK/NA                 6       3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of John Hickenlooper favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            48%    16%    87%    49%    41%    55%
Unfavorable          44     75      8     43     50     38
Hvn't hrd enough      6      7      4      6      7      6
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of John Hickenlooper favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            48      43
Unfavorable          44      51
Hvn't hrd enough      6       5
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Bob Beauprez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            45%    86%     5%    42%    51%    39%
Unfavorable          36      5     71     36     31     40
Hvn't hrd enough     17      8     22     20     16     18
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bob Beauprez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            45      49
Unfavorable          36      31
Hvn't hrd enough     17      19
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Matthew Hess favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             7%     2%     6%    12%     9%     4%
Unfavorable           6      5      8      5      5      6
Hvn't hrd enough     86     92     84     83     84     89
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Matthew Hess favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable             7       4
Unfavorable           6       4
Hvn't hrd enough     86      90
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Harry Hempy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             4%     1%     3%     8%     5%     3%
Unfavorable           7      6      8      6      6      7
Hvn't hrd enough     88     92     87     86     87     89
REFUSED               1      1      2      -      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Harry Hempy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable             4       3
Unfavorable           7       4
Hvn't hrd enough     88      91
REFUSED               1       1
 
 

Demographic Summary