October 16, 2014 - GOP Challenger Up 6 Points In Colorado Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women's Shift To Udall Widens Gender Gap Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, the Republican challenger in the Colorado U.S. Senate race, leads U.S. Sen. Mark Udall, the Democratic incumbent 47 - 41 percent among likely voters, with 8 percent for independent candidate Steve Shogan, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 4 percent are undecided.

This compares to a 48 - 40 percent likely voter lead for Gardner in a September 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

With Shogan out of the race, Gardner is ahead 49 - 44 percent.

In the three-way race today, women back Udall over Gardner 49 - 40 percent, with 7 percent for Shogan. This compares to last month's results, with women going 46 percent for Udall and 43 percent for Gardner. Men back the Republican over the Democrat 53 - 34 percent, with 9 percent for Shogan, unchanged from September 18.

Gardner gets 42 percent of independent voters to Udall's 39 percent, with 13 percent for Shogan. Republicans go to Gardner 92 - 5 percent, with 2 percent for Shogan. Udall takes Democrats 90 - 4 percent, with 2 percent for Shogan.

With 19 days until Election Day, 87 percent of Colorado likely voters say their mind is made up, while 12 percent might change their mind.

"With 19 days to go, can U.S. Sen. Mark Udall close a 6 percentage point gap in this marquee race that could tip the Senate to the GOP, or will U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner prevail?" asked Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

"There is no significant movement in the race, but a 6-point gap is more interesting than an 8-point gap. Let's see what the next survey shows."

Colorado likely voters give Sen. Udall a negative 42 - 49 percent favorability rating, compared to Gardner's positive 47 - 41 percent rating.

Shogan remains largely unknown as 86 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

From October 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 988 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat, Cory Gardner the Republican, and Steve Shogan running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Udall, Gardner, or Shogan? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Udall                41%     5%    90%    39%    34%    49%
Gardner              47     92      4     42     53     40
Shogan                8      2      2     13      9      7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      1      4      5      4      4
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat, Cory Gardner the Republican, and Steve Shogan running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Udall, Gardner, or Shogan? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014
 
Udall                41      40
Gardner              47      48
Shogan                8       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -
DK/NA                 4       3
 
 
7a. (If candidate chosen q7) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q7..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q7
                     Tot    Udall  Gardner
 
Mind made up         87%    88%    91%
Might change         12     12      9
DK/NA                 1      -      1
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN
                     Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014
 
Mind made up         87      82
Might change         12      18
DK/NA                 1       -
 
 
8. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q7 ASKING SHOGAN VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP Q7 WITHOUT SHOGAN.............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Udall                44%     5%    90%    45%    38%    50%
Gardner              49     94      4     44     56     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      -      1
DK/NA                 7      1      5     10      6      8
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING SHOGAN VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT SHOGAN
                     Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014
 
Udall                44      42
Gardner              49      52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
DK/NA                 7       5
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Mark Udall favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            42%     8%    83%    44%    35%    49%
Unfavorable          49     84      9     48     56     42
Hvn't hrd enough      7      6      6      6      7      6
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mark Udall favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            42      42
Unfavorable          49      50
Hvn't hrd enough      7       7
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Cory Gardner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            47%    89%     5%    45%    52%    42%
Unfavorable          41      5     81     41     35     47
Hvn't hrd enough     10      5     11     11     12      9
REFUSED               2      1      3      3      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Cory Gardner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            47      47
Unfavorable          41      37
Hvn't hrd enough     10      15
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Steve Shogan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             6%     1%     5%    10%     9%     3%
Unfavorable           7      6      9      6      8      6
Hvn't hrd enough     86     93     85     82     82     90
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Steve Shogan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable             6       6
Unfavorable           7       7
Hvn't hrd enough     86      86
REFUSED               1       1
 
 

Demographic Summary