October 23, 2014 - Colorado Gov Race Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Hickenlooper Closes 10-Point Gap In Five Weeks Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, behind 50 - 40 percent September 17, now has 45 percent to former U. S. Rep. Bob Beauprez' 44 percent among likely voters, leaving the governor's race too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian candidate Matthew Hess has 1 percent, with 2 percent for Green Party candidate Harry Hempy. Another 7 percent are undecided.

An October 15 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showed 46 percent for Beauprez and 42 percent for Gov. Hickenlooper.

With Hess out of the race, Hickenlooper and Beauprez are tied 45 - 45 percent, with 2 percent for Hempy. With Hempy out, Hickenlooper gets 45 percent to Beauprez' 44 percent, with 2 percent for Hess.

Women are the key to Hickenlooper's strength, backing the incumbent 49 - 39 percent. Men back Beauprez 49 - 41 percent.

Hickenlooper gets 45 percent of independent voters to Beauprez' 40 percent. Democrats today go to the governor 94 - 4 percent, while Republicans back their challenger 86 - 6 percent.

"Off the mat and clearly building momentum, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper fights off a ten count and enters the final round of the gubernatorial slugfest looking stronger by the day," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"In just a few weeks, what looked like a slide toward political oblivion for Gov. Hickenlooper morphs into a down-to-the-wire Rocky Mountain slugfest with Bob Beauprez."

"Let's see who's still standing when the bell rings on Election Night. Will they be talking about Hick the Comeback Kid of 2014, or Bob 'The Bomber' Beauprez?" Malloy asked.

With 12 days until Election Day, 91 percent of Colorado likely voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 8 percent say they might change their mind.

By a 51 - 42 percent margin, Colorado likely voters have a favorable opinion of Hickenlooper, compared to 48 - 44 percent favorable October 15.

Beauprez gets a 45 - 39 percent favorability, compared to 45 - 36 percent last week.

Hess and Hempy remain largely unknown as 89 percent of voters don't know enough about Hess to form an opinion and 90 percent don't know enough about Hempy.

From October 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 974 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were John Hickenlooper the Democrat, Bob Beauprez the Republican, Matthew Hess the Libertarian, and Harry Hempy the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hickenlooper, Beauprez, Hess, or Hempy? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Hickenlooper         45%     6%    94%    45%    41%    49%    40%
Beauprez             44     86      4     40     49     39     46
Hess                  1      -      -      2      2      1      2
Hempy                 2      1      -      2      2      1      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      -      1
DK/NA                 7      6      2     10      5      9      9
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were John Hickenlooper the Democrat, Bob Beauprez the Republican, Matthew Hess the Libertarian, and Harry Hempy the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hickenlooper, Beauprez, Hess, or Hempy? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Hickenlooper         45      42      40
Beauprez             44      46      50
Hess                  1       5       3
Hempy                 2       1       3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       1
DK/NA                 7       6       3
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Hickenlooper  Beauprez
 
Mind made up         91%    89%           95%
Might change          8     10             4
DK/NA                 -      -             -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN......
                     Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Mind made up         91      84      77
Might change          8      16      22
DK/NA                 -       1       1
 
 
2a. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING HESS VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT HESS..........................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Hickenlooper         45%     6%    94%    45%    41%    49%    40%
Beauprez             45     86      4     40     50     39     47
Hempy                 2      1      -      3      3      2      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 7      6      2     10      5      9      9
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING HESS VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT HESS..
                     Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Hickenlooper         45      43      40
Beauprez             45      48      52
Hempy                 2       2       3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       1
DK/NA                 7       7       4
 
 
2b. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING HEMPY VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT HEMPY.........................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Hickenlooper         45%     6%    94%    45%    41%    49%    40%
Beauprez             44     86      4     40     49     39     46
Hess                  2      1      -      3      3      1      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      -      1
DK/NA                 8      6      2     10      5     10     10
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING HEMPY VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT HEMPY
                     Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Hickenlooper         45      43      41
Beauprez             44      46      51
Hess                  2       5       4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       1
DK/NA                 8       6       3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of John Hickenlooper favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            51%    18%    92%    50%    46%    56%    47%
Unfavorable          42     76      4     43     48     37     49
Hvn't hrd enough      4      4      4      4      4      4      3
REFUSED               2      2      -      2      1      3      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of John Hickenlooper favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            51      48      43
Unfavorable          42      44      51
Hvn't hrd enough      4       6       5
REFUSED               2       2       1
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Bob Beauprez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            45%    84%     9%    40%    52%    39%    50%
Unfavorable          39      4     77     39     37     41     38
Hvn't hrd enough     12     11     13     15     10     15      6
REFUSED               3      1      1      6      1      5      6
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bob Beauprez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            45      45      49
Unfavorable          39      36      31
Hvn't hrd enough     12      17      19
REFUSED               3       2       1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Matthew Hess favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable             5%     4%     2%     6%     7%     4%     2%
Unfavorable           4      2      5      4      5      2      3
Hvn't hrd enough     89     91     92     88     87     91     93
REFUSED               2      3      1      1      1      3      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Matthew Hess favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable             5       7       4
Unfavorable           4       6       4
Hvn't hrd enough     89      86      90
REFUSED               2       1       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Harry Hempy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable             4%     2%     5%     2%     5%     3%     5%
Unfavorable           4      3      4      6      5      3      2
Hvn't hrd enough     90     93     90     91     89     92     92
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Harry Hempy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable             4       4       3
Unfavorable           4       7       4
Hvn't hrd enough     90      88      91
REFUSED               1       1       1
 
 

Demographic Summary