October 24, 2014 - Udall Gains No Ground In Colorado Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Men Go Republican More Than Women Go Democratic Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, the Republican challenger in the Colorado U.S. Senate race, leads U.S. Sen. Mark Udall, the Democratic incumbent, 46 - 41 percent among likely voters, with 6 percent for independent candidate Steve Shogan, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 6 percent are undecided.

This compares to a 47 - 41 percent likely voter lead for Gardner in an October 16 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

With Shogan out of the race, Gardner gets 48 percent to Udall's 44 percent.

In the three-way race today, women back Udall 45 - 41 percent, with 5 percent for Shogan. This compares to last week's results, with women backing Udall over Gardner 49 - 40 percent. Men back the Republican over the Democrat 51 - 38 percent, with 6 percent for Shogan, compared to Gardner's 53 - 34 percent lead among men last week.

Gardner gets 42 percent of independent voters to Udall's 40 percent, with 9 percent for Shogan. Republicans go to Gardner 90 - 3 percent, with 3 percent for Shogan. Udall takes Democrats 92 - 2 percent, with 5 percent for Shogan.

With 11 days until Election Day, 92 percent of Colorado likely voters say their mind is made up, while 8 percent might change their mind.

"The needle is barely moving for U.S. Sen. Mark Udall and U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner in a Senate race with potential national consequences" said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Sen. Udall still trails in the matchup and, perhaps more troubling, in favorability among Colorado voters who are positioned to shift control of the Senate," Malloy added.

Colorado likely voters give Sen. Udall a slightly negative 44 - 49 percent favorability rating, compared to Gardner's positive 49 - 42 percent rating.

Shogan remains largely unknown as 84 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

From October 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 974 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll

7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat, Cory Gardner the Republican, and Steve Shogan running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Udall, Gardner, or Shogan? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Udall                41%     3%    92%    40%    38%    45%    37%
Gardner              46     90      2     42     51     41     49
Shogan                6      3      5      9      6      5      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      4      1      9      5      8     10
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat, Cory Gardner the Republican, and Steve Shogan running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Udall, Gardner, or Shogan? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Udall                41      41      40
Gardner              46      47      48
Shogan                6       8       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -       -
DK/NA                 6       4       3
 
 
7a. (If candidate chosen q7) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q7..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q7
                     Tot    Udall  Gardner
 
Mind made up         92%    92%    96%
Might change          8      7      4
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN......
                     Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Mind made up         92      87      82
Might change          8      12      18
DK/NA                 -       1       -
 
 
8. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q7 ASKING SHOGAN VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                     MATCHUP Q7 WITHOUT SHOGAN........................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Udall                44%     4%    95%    44%    39%    49%    38%
Gardner              48     91      3     44     53     42     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      2      3      1      2
DK/NA                 7      4      2     10      5      9     10
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING SHOGAN VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT SHOGAN
                     Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Udall                44      44      42
Gardner              48      49      52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       1
DK/NA                 7       7       5
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Mark Udall favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            44%     7%    91%    46%    39%    50%    39%
Unfavorable          49     84      7     47     56     42     56
Hvn't hrd enough      5      9      1      4      5      5      2
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      1      4      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mark Udall favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            44      42      42
Unfavorable          49      49      50
Hvn't hrd enough      5       7       7
REFUSED               2       2       1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Cory Gardner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            49%    87%     8%    48%    55%    43%    52%
Unfavorable          42      6     83     41     39     44     42
Hvn't hrd enough      7      6      8      6      5      8      4
REFUSED               2      1      -      4      1      4      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Cory Gardner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            49      47      47
Unfavorable          42      41      37
Hvn't hrd enough      7      10      15
REFUSED               2       2       1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Steve Shogan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable             7%     7%     7%     9%     9%     6%     5%
Unfavorable           7      7      8      6      7      7      6
Hvn't hrd enough     84     86     84     83     84     84     87
REFUSED               2      -      1      2      1      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Steve Shogan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable             7       6       6
Unfavorable           7       7       7
Hvn't hrd enough     84      86      86
REFUSED               2       1       1
 
 

Demographic Summary