October 29, 2014 - Beauprez Pulls Ahead In Colorado Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Up 21 Points Among Men Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Men are going Republican in a big way in the Colorado governor's race, giving former U. S. Rep. Bob Beauprez, the Republican challenger a 45 - 40 percent likely voter lead over Gov. John Hickenlooper, the Democratic incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian candidate Matthew Hess has 4 percent, with 2 percent for Green Party candidate Harry Hempy. Another 9 percent are undecided.

This compares to an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University showing 45 percent for Gov. Hickenlooper and 44 percent for Beauprez.

With Hess out of the race, Beauprez leads 46 - 41 percent, with 3 percent for Hempy. With Hempy out, Beauprez leads 45 - 40 percent, with 5 percent for Hess.

Men back Beauprez 54 - 33 percent, compared to 49 - 41 percent last week. This overwhelms Hickenlooper's 47 - 37 percent lead among women.

Independent voters are split 38 - 38 percent. Democrats go to the governor 87 - 3 percent, while Republicans back Beauprez 89 - 6 percent.

"Five points down, six days to go. The numbers are tight and the ticking clock is the enemy. Is the wolf at the door for Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper? " asked Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

"The gender battle leans Republican Bob Beauprez' way as a surge of support from men eclipses Gov. Hickenlooper's once commanding lead with women."

Just six days before Election Day, 88 percent of Colorado likely voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 12 percent say they might change their mind.

Colorado likely voters have a mixed opinion of Hickenlooper, giving him a split 46 - 46 percent favorability rating, compared to a positive 51 - 42 percent favorability rating last week.

Beauprez gets a 47 - 34 percent favorability, compared to 45 - 39 percent last week.

Hess and Hempy remain largely unknown as 89 percent of voters don't know enough about Hess to form an opinion and 87 percent don't know enough about Hempy.

From October 22- 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 844 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were John Hickenlooper the Democrat, Bob Beauprez the Republican, Matthew Hess the Libertarian, and Harry Hempy the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hickenlooper, Beauprez, Hess, or Hempy? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Hickenlooper         40%     6%    87%    38%    33%    47%    42%
Beauprez             45     89      3     38     54     37     47
Hess                  4      1      1      7      4      4      2
Hempy                 2      -      -      3      1      2      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 9      3      8     13      9      9      8
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were John Hickenlooper the Democrat, Bob Beauprez the Republican, Matthew Hess the Libertarian, and Harry Hempy the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hickenlooper, Beauprez, Hess, or Hempy? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Hickenlooper         40      45      42      40
Beauprez             45      44      46      50
Hess                  4       1       5       3
Hempy                 2       2       1       3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       -       1
DK/NA                 9       7       6       3
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Hickenlooper  Beauprez
 
Mind made up         88%    88%           91%
Might change         12     11             9
DK/NA                 1      1             -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN..............
                     Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Mind made up         88      91      84      77
Might change         12       8      16      22
DK/NA                 1       -       1       1
 
 
2a. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING HESS VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT HESS..........................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Hickenlooper         41%     6%    87%    40%    33%    48%    42%
Beauprez             46     91      3     39     55     38     47
Hempy                 3      -      1      6      3      3      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      -      1      1
DK/NA                 9      3      8     15     10      9      8
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING HESS VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT HESS..........
                     Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Hickenlooper         41      45      43      40
Beauprez             46      45      48      52
Hempy                 3       2       2       3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       -       1
DK/NA                 9       7       7       4
 
 
2b. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING HEMPY VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT HEMPY.........................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Hickenlooper         40%     6%    87%    38%    33%    48%    42%
Beauprez             45     89      3     38     54     37     47
Hess                  5      1      1      9      5      5      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 9      3      8     14      9      9      8
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING HEMPY VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT HEMPY.........
                     Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Hickenlooper         40      45      43      41
Beauprez             45      44      46      51
Hess                  5       2       5       4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       -       1
DK/NA                 9       8       6       3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of John Hickenlooper favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            46%    13%    90%    44%    40%    52%    47%
Unfavorable          46     79      8     44     56     37     47
Hvn't hrd enough      6      6      2     10      4      8      3
REFUSED               2      3      -      1      1      3      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of John Hickenlooper favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            46      51      48      43
Unfavorable          46      42      44      51
Hvn't hrd enough      6       4       6       5
REFUSED               2       2       2       1
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Bob Beauprez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            47%    86%    12%    39%    56%    38%    49%
Unfavorable          34      5     71     34     31     37     40
Hvn't hrd enough     17      8     16     25     12     22      8
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      1      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bob Beauprez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            47      45      45      49
Unfavorable          34      39      36      31
Hvn't hrd enough     17      12      17      19
REFUSED               2       3       2       1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Matthew Hess favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable             6%     4%     4%    10%     8%     4%     5%
Unfavorable           3      4      2      2      4      3      5
Hvn't hrd enough     89     90     93     86     87     90     88
REFUSED               2      2      1      1      1      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Matthew Hess favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable             6       5       7       4
Unfavorable           3       4       6       4
Hvn't hrd enough     89      89      86      90
REFUSED               2       2       1       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Harry Hempy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable             5%     2%     3%     8%     7%     3%     3%
Unfavorable           6      9      4      4      8      4      5
Hvn't hrd enough     87     87     90     87     84     90     88
REFUSED               3      2      4      1      1      4      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Harry Hempy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable             5       4       4       3
Unfavorable           6       4       7       4
Hvn't hrd enough     87      90      88      91
REFUSED               3       1       1       1
 
 

Demographic Summary