October 30, 2014 - Udall Down 7 Points In Colorado Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Men Give Republican Big Lead Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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With strong support from men, U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, the Republican challenger in the Colorado U.S. Senate race, leads U.S. Sen. Mark Udall, the Democratic incumbent, 46 - 39 percent among likely voters, with 7 percent for independent candidate Steve Shogan, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 7 percent are undecided.

This compares to a 46 - 41 percent likely voter lead for Gardner in an October 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

With Shogan out of the race, Gardner is up 49 - 41 percent.

In the three-way race today, men back the Republican over the Democrat 54 - 33 percent, with 6 percent for Shogan, compared to Gardner's 51 - 38 percent lead among men last week. Women back Udall 45 - 39 percent, with 8 percent for Shogan. This compares to last week's results, with women going 45 percent for Udall, 41 percent for Gardner and 5 percent for Shogan.

Gardner gets 37 percent of independent voters to Udall's 35 percent, with 19 percent for Shogan. Republicans go to Gardner 89 - 8 percent, with 1 percent for Shogan. Udall takes Democrats 85 - 4 percent, with 1 percent for Shogan.

Just five days until Election Day, 89 percent of Colorado likely voters say their mind is made up, while 10 percent might change their mind.

"U.S. Sen. Mark Udall loses ground to U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner - and the GOP smacks its lips," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"This Colorado Senate race has national implications, and it's taken an ugly turn for the incumbent," Malloy added. "Will the tidal shift in the Senate start in the Rocky Mountains?"

Colorado likely voters give Sen. Udall a negative 43 - 50 percent favorability rating, compared to Gardner's positive 48 - 40 percent rating.

Shogan remains largely unknown as 87 percent of likely voters still don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

From October 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 844 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat, Cory Gardner the Republican, and Steve Shogan running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Udall, Gardner, or Shogan? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Udall                39%     8%    85%    35%    33%    45%    42%
Gardner              46     89      4     37     54     39     48
Shogan                7      1      1     19      6      8      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      3      1      -      2      -
DK/NA                 7      3      6      9      7      6      6
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat, Cory Gardner the Republican, and Steve Shogan running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Udall, Gardner, or Shogan? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 30  Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Udall                39      41      41      40
Gardner              46      46      47      48
Shogan                7       6       8       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       6       4       3
 
 
7a. (If candidate chosen q7) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q7..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q7
                     Tot    Udall  Gardner
 
Mind made up         89%    92%    92%
Might change         10      7      8
DK/NA                 -      1      -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN..............
                     Oct 30  Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Mind made up         89      92      87      82
Might change         10       8      12      18
DK/NA                 -       -       1       -
 
 
8. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q7 ASKING SHOGAN VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                     MATCHUP Q7 WITHOUT SHOGAN........................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Udall                41%     8%    86%    40%    35%    47%    42%
Gardner              49     89      4     44     56     42     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      3      2      -      3      1
DK/NA                 9      4      7     14      9      9      8
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING SHOGAN VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT SHOGAN........
                     Oct 30  Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Udall                41      44      44      42
Gardner              49      48      49      52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       1       1
DK/NA                 9       7       7       5
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Mark Udall favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            43%    15%    87%    38%    36%    49%    44%
Unfavorable          50     81      7     53     57     44     52
Hvn't hrd enough      5      2      6      8      5      5      3
REFUSED               1      2      -      1      1      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mark Udall favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 30  Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            43      44      42      42
Unfavorable          50      49      49      50
Hvn't hrd enough      5       5       7       7
REFUSED               1       2       2       1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Cory Gardner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            48%    89%     7%    42%    58%    40%    51%
Unfavorable          40      5     83     42     32     48     41
Hvn't hrd enough     10      5     10     15      9     11      6
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Cory Gardner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 30  Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            48      49      47      47
Unfavorable          40      42      41      37
Hvn't hrd enough     10       7      10      15
REFUSED               1       2       2       1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Steve Shogan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable             6%     3%     3%    13%     7%     5%     4%
Unfavorable           5      4      9      2      5      5      4
Hvn't hrd enough     87     92     87     84     86     88     90
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Steve Shogan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 30  Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable             6       7       6       6
Unfavorable           5       7       7       7
Hvn't hrd enough     87      84      86      86
REFUSED               1       2       1       1
 
 

Demographic Summary