November 3, 2014 - Beauprez-45%, Hickenlooper-43% In Colorado Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gardner At 45% To Udall's 43% In Senate Race Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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A late surge by Democrats in Colorado leaves the governor's race and the U.S. Senate race too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In the governor's race, former U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez, the Republican challenger, has 45 percent of likely voters while Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper has 43 percent, with 3 percent each for Libertarian candidate Matthew Hess and Green Party candidate Harry Hempy. Six percent remain undecided.

This compares to an October 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University showing 45 percent for Beauprez and 40 percent for Gov. Hickenlooper.

Men back Beauprez 47 - 36 percent, as women go 47 percent for Hickenlooper to 43 percent for Beauprez. Hickenlooper leads 92 - 5 percent among Democrats and 41 - 36 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Beauprez 88 - 5 percent.

Beauprez gets 46 percent of those who already have voted to 42 percent for Hickenlooper.

"Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper will have to count on an aggressive final hour ground game and a bump from the undecideds to keep the state's top job, but it can go either way," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

One day before the election, 96 percent of Colorado likely voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 4 percent say they might change their mind. The numbers are the same in the Senate race.

Colorado likely voters give Hickenlooper a split 47 - 47 percent favorability rating, while Beauprez gets a positive 46 - 39 percent favorability rating. Hess and Hempy remain largely unknown as 88 percent of voters don't know enough about Hess to form an opinion and 91 percent don't know enough about Hempy.

Senate Race

Results in the U.S. Senate race are the same as in the governor's race: 45 percent for the Republican challenger, U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, and 43 percent for Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, with 6 percent for independent candidate Steve Shogan and 4 percent undecided.

An October 30 Quinnipiac University poll showed Gardner up 46 - 39 percent, with 7 percent for Shogan.

Women go 47 percent for Udall and 44 percent for Gardner, while men back Gardner 47 - 38 percent. Udall takes Democrats 93 - 2 percent and independent voters 43 - 36 percent. Republicans go to Gardner 92 - 4 percent.

Udall gets a negative 44 - 50 percent favorability rating, compared to Gardner's split 46 - 45 percent favorability.

"Not so fast, say the latest numbers as U.S. Rep. Corey Gardner's comfortable lead over Sen. Mark Udall becomes a race too close to call. What looked like a GOP lock on a coveted Senate seat in a targeted state, heads down to the wire with no clear leader," Malloy said.

From October 28 - November 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 815 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were John Hickenlooper the Democrat, Bob Beauprez the Republican, Matthew Hess the Libertarian, and Harry Hempy the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hickenlooper, Beauprez, Hess, or Hempy? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Hickenlooper         43%     5%    92%    41%    36%    47%    42%
Beauprez             45     88      5     36     47     43     46
Hess                  3      1      -      6      5      1      3
Hempy                 3      -      -      8      5      2      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 6      5      2      8      7      5      7
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were John Hickenlooper the Democrat, Bob Beauprez the Republican, Matthew Hess the Libertarian, and Harry Hempy the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hickenlooper, Beauprez, Hess, or Hempy? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Hickenlooper         43      40      45      42      40
Beauprez             45      45      44      46      50
Hess                  3       4       1       5       3
Hempy                 3       2       2       1       3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       1       -       1
DK/NA                 6       9       7       6       3
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Hickenlooper  Beauprez
 
Mind made up         96%    97%           97%
Might change          4      2             3
DK/NA                 -      -             -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN......................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Mind made up         96      88      91      84      77
Might change          4      12       8      16      22
DK/NA                 -       1       -       1       1
 
 
2a. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING HESS VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT HESS..........................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Hickenlooper         43%     5%    92%    42%    37%    47%    42%
Beauprez             45     90      5     36     48     43     46
Hempy                 4      -      -     10      6      2      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      1
DK/NA                 7      5      2     10      8      6      8
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING HESS VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT HESS..................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Hickenlooper         43      41      45      43      40
Beauprez             45      46      45      48      52
Hempy                 4       3       2       2       3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       -       1
DK/NA                 7       9       7       7       4
 
 
2b. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING HEMPY VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT HEMPY.........................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Hickenlooper         44%     5%    92%    45%    39%    48%    44%
Beauprez             45     88      5     36     47     43     46
Hess                  4      1      -      8      7      2      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 7      6      2     10      7      7      7
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING HEMPY VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT HEMPY.................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Hickenlooper         44      40      45      43      41
Beauprez             45      45      44      46      51
Hess                  4       5       2       5       4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       1       -       1
DK/NA                 7       9       8       6       3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of John Hickenlooper favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            47%    13%    86%    48%    43%    49%    47%
Unfavorable          47     83      7     42     51     44     48
Hvn't hrd enough      5      2      6      8      4      5      3
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      2      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of John Hickenlooper favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            47      46      51      48      43
Unfavorable          47      46      42      44      51
Hvn't hrd enough      5       6       4       6       5
REFUSED               2       2       2       2       1
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Bob Beauprez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            46%    85%     8%    39%    47%    45%    48%
Unfavorable          39      5     76     43     39     39     39
Hvn't hrd enough     13      8     15     18     12     15     11
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      2      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bob Beauprez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            46      47      45      45      49
Unfavorable          39      34      39      36      31
Hvn't hrd enough     13      17      12      17      19
REFUSED               2       2       3       2       1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Matthew Hess favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable             7%     3%     8%     9%     8%     6%     5%
Unfavorable           4      3      3      5      5      3      4
Hvn't hrd enough     88     94     88     85     85     90     89
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Matthew Hess favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable             7       6       5       7       4
Unfavorable           4       3       4       6       4
Hvn't hrd enough     88      89      89      86      90
REFUSED               1       2       2       1       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Harry Hempy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable             6%     2%     2%    14%     7%     5%     5%
Unfavorable           2      3      2      2      4      1      3
Hvn't hrd enough     91     95     95     83     88     93     91
REFUSED               1      -      1      2      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Harry Hempy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable             6       5       4       4       3
Unfavorable           2       6       4       7       4
Hvn't hrd enough     91      87      90      88      91
REFUSED               1       3       1       1       1
 
 
7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat, Cory Gardner the Republican, and Steve Shogan running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Udall, Gardner, or Shogan? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Udall                43%     4%    93%    43%    38%    47%    42%
Gardner              45     92      2     36     47     44     47
Shogan                6      1      3     13      7      5      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      3      2      1      2
DK/NA                 4      3      2      5      6      2      5
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat, Cory Gardner the Republican, and Steve Shogan running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Udall, Gardner, or Shogan? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 30  Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Udall                43      39      41      41      40
Gardner              45      46      46      47      48
Shogan                6       7       6       8       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       -       -       -
DK/NA                 4       7       6       4       3
 
 
7a. (If candidate chosen q7) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q7..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q7
                     Tot    Udall  Gardner
 
Mind made up         96%    96%    98%
Might change          4      4      2
DK/NA                 -      1      -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN......................
                     Nov 03  Oct 30  Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Mind made up         96      89      92      87      82
Might change          4      10       8      12      18
DK/NA                 -       -       -       1       -
 
 
8. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q7 ASKING SHOGAN VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                     MATCHUP Q7 WITHOUT SHOGAN........................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Udall                45%     4%    95%    47%    41%    49%    44%
Gardner              46     92      3     39     49     44     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      4      3      2      2
DK/NA                 6      4      2     10      7      5      7
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING SHOGAN VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT SHOGAN................
                     Nov 03  Oct 30  Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Udall                45      41      44      44      42
Gardner              46      49      48      49      52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2       1       1
DK/NA                 6       9       7       7       5
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Mark Udall favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            44%     7%    91%    45%    39%    49%    45%
Unfavorable          50     90      6     45     55     46     50
Hvn't hrd enough      4      2      1      8      5      4      3
REFUSED               1      -      2      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mark Udall favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 30  Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            44      43      44      42      42
Unfavorable          50      50      49      49      50
Hvn't hrd enough      4       5       5       7       7
REFUSED               1       1       2       2       1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Cory Gardner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            46%    91%     6%    38%    48%    45%    49%
Unfavorable          45      6     86     50     41     48     45
Hvn't hrd enough      8      3      7     11     11      6      5
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Cory Gardner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 30  Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            46      48      49      47      47
Unfavorable          45      40      42      41      37
Hvn't hrd enough      8      10       7      10      15
REFUSED               1       1       2       2       1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Steve Shogan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable             7%     3%     4%    15%     9%     6%     5%
Unfavorable           7      4      9      7      7      6      7
Hvn't hrd enough     85     93     85     77     82     87     87
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Steve Shogan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 30  Oct 24  Oct 16  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable             7       6       7       6       6
Unfavorable           7       5       7       7       7
Hvn't hrd enough     85      87      84      86      86
REFUSED               1       1       2       1       1
 
 

Demographic Summary