October 8, 2014 - Malloy Catches Foley In Connecticut Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Race Is Dead Heat As Independent Gets 9 Percent Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy overcomes a six-point lead by Tom Foley, the Republican challenger, leaving the race a 43 - 43 percent dead heat, with 9 percent for independent candidate Joe Visconti, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 46 - 40 percent Foley lead among likely voters in a September 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

With Visconti out of the race, it's a 46 - 46 percent tie.

In the last four weeks, Malloy has cut Foley's lead among men from 19 percentage points to 11 points, while the Democrat's lead among women grows from 7 points to 11 points.

In today's three-way matchup, women back Malloy 47 - 36 percent, with 10 percent for Visconti, while men back Foley 50 - 39 percent, with 8 percent for Visconti. Foley leads 82 - 9 percent among Republicans, with 6 percent for Visconti, and 47 - 37 percent among independent voters, with 11 percent for Visconti. Democrats back Malloy 77 - 9 percent, with 9 percent for Visconti.

Among Connecticut likely voters who name a candidate, 74 percent say their mind is made up, while 25 percent say they might change their mind by Election Day. Their minds are made up, say 73 percent of Malloy voters and 81 percent of Foley backers, while 56 percent of Visconti supporters say they might change their mind.

"The poll is good news for Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy. After trailing Republican Tom Foley by 6 points a month ago, Malloy is tied as this race promises to go down to the wire," said Douglas Schwartz, PhD, director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

"Malloy has been able to cut into Foley's lead among men while increasing his lead among women, to break even over all. There is a gender gap in the race with Malloy ahead by 11 percentage points among women and Foley up 11 points among men," Dr. Schwartz added.

"While there are only 5 percent of likely voters undecided, 25 percent of voters could still change their minds.

"It looks like we're heading for another photo finish - just like in 2010."

Connecticut likely voters are not overly fond of any of the candidates:
  • Malloy gets a negative 41 - 51 percent favorability, compared to his negative 40 - 53 percent grade September 10;
  • Foley gets a split 41 - 39 percent favorability, compared to a positive 42 - 33 percent rating last month;
  • 86 percent of voters still don't know enough about Visconti to form an opinion, little changed from his 89 percent "don't know enough" rating last month.
"As the campaign has gotten nasty, voters are not wild about either candidate. Malloy's favorability rating is still underwater. Foley gets a mixed favorability rating. He is a little better known since early September, but a little less liked.

"Voters like Foley less since our last poll. Foley's negatives have risen perhaps due to Malloy's attacks."

From October 1 - 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,085 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat, Tom Foley the Republican, and Joe Visconti running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy, Foley, or Visconti? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               43%     9%    77%    37%    39%    47%
Foley                43     82      9     47     50     36
Visconti              9      6      9     11      8     10
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      1      -
DK/NA                 5      2      5      4      2      7
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat, Tom Foley the Republican, and Joe Visconti running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy, Foley, or Visconti? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014
 
Malloy               43      40
Foley                43      46
Visconti              9       7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1
DK/NA                 5       6
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Malloy Foley  Visconti
 
Mind made up         74%    73%    81%    42%
Might change         25     26     19     56
DK/NA                 1      1      -      2
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN
                     Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014
 
Mind made up         74      69
Might change         25      30
DK/NA                 1       1
 
 
2. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING VISCONTI VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT VISCONTI...........
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               46%    11%    81%    41%    41%    51%
Foley                46     86     13     50     54     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      2      -
DK/NA                 7      3      6      8      4     10
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING VISCONTI VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT VISCONTI
                     Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014
 
Malloy               46      43
Foley                46      49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
DK/NA                 7       7
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            41%    12%    71%    36%    36%    46%
Unfavorable          51     79     21     57     56     45
Hvn't hrd enough      5      8      5      3      5      6
REFUSED               3      2      3      4      3      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            41      40
Unfavorable          51      53
Hvn't hrd enough      5       5
REFUSED               3       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            41%    76%    11%    44%    47%    34%
Unfavorable          39     12     63     36     36     42
Hvn't hrd enough     18     12     22     17     15     21
REFUSED               2      1      3      3      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            41      42
Unfavorable          39      33
Hvn't hrd enough     18      23
REFUSED               2       2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Joe Visconti favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             7%     6%     2%    11%     6%     7%
Unfavorable           7      7      7      5      9      4
Hvn't hrd enough     86     86     89     83     84     88
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Visconti favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable             7       6
Unfavorable           7       4
Hvn't hrd enough     86      89
REFUSED               1       1
 
 

Demographic Summary