September 10, 2014 - Foley Up 6 Points In Connecticut Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Republican Is Better On Economy, Spending Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Connecticut likely voters say Tom Foley, the Republican challenger in the governor's race, would do a better job than Gov. Dannel Malloy, the Democrat, handling two top issues, the economy/jobs and government spending, as they give Foley a 46 - 40 percent lead eight weeks before Election Day, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Foley leads 82 - 9 percent among Republicans and 48 - 35 percent among independent voters, while Gov. Malloy takes Democrats 77 - 10 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. This survey of likely voters can not be compared to prior surveys of registered voters.

Malloy's 45 - 38 percent lead with women is offset by Foley's 54 - 35 percent lead among men.

Joe Visconti, running as an independent candidate, gets 7 percent of the vote. When the race is recalculated without Visconti, Foley leads Malloy 49 - 43 percent.

Among Connecticut likely voters who name a candidate, 69 percent say their mind is made up, while 30 percent say they might change their mind by Election Day. Their minds are made up, say 68 percent of Malloy voters and 77 percent of Foley backers, while 75 percent of Visconti supporters say they might change their mind.

"In our first likely voter poll, Tom Foley has the edge but Gov. Dannel Malloy is certainly within striking distance," said Douglas Schwartz, PhD, director of the Quinnipiac University poll. "Foley has a double-digit lead among the key swing group, independent voters. With eight weeks until Election Day, there are 6 percent undecided and another 30 percent who say they could change their mind."

"A difficult problem for Malloy to overcome is his high negative favorability rating, as 53 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion of him, including 40 percent who say they have a strongly unfavorable opinion," Dr. Schwartz added.

"It is tough for a well-known incumbent to change voter opinion once formed. In contrast, only 33 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Foley."

Connecticut likely voters have a negative 40 - 53 percent favorability rating of Malloy. Foley gets a positive 42 - 33 percent favorability rating. For Visconti, 89 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

The economy/jobs matters most in their vote for governor, 40 percent of likely voters say, while 19 percent list government spending and 16 percent list taxes.

Foley would do a better job than Malloy handling these top issues, voters say:
  • 54 - 37 percent on the economy and jobs;
  • 59 - 31 percent on taxes;
  • 54 - 36 percent on finding the right balance between needed and unneeded government spending.
Looking at Malloy's character traits, Connecticut voters say:
  • 51 - 38 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 48 percent that he cares about their needs and problems, while 46 percent say he doesn't care;
  • 57 - 38 percent that he has strong leadership qualities.
Looking at Foley's character, voters say:
  • 44 - 28 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 46 - 35 percent that he cares about their needs and problems;
  • 53 - 24 percent that he has strong leadership qualities.
"Foley leads Malloy in large part because he is viewed by most voters as better able to handle pocketbook issues. Voters think Foley is better able than Malloy to handle their top issue - the economy and jobs. Foley also has big leads on taxes and government spending, while Malloy has small leads on gun policy and education," Dr. Schwartz said.

From September 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,304 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat, Tom Foley the Republican, and Joe Visconti running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy, Foley, or Visconti? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               40%     9%    77%    35%    35%    45%
Foley                46     82     10     48     54     38
Visconti              7      5      7      8      5      9
SOMEONE ELSE(VOL)     1      -      1      1      1      -
DK/NA                 6      4      5      8      5      7
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Malloy Foley  Visconti
 
Mind made up         69%    68%    77%    25%
Might change         30     31     21     75
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -
 
 
2a. (If Malloy voter q1) Is your vote for governor mainly for Malloy or against Foley?
                     LIKELY MALLOY VOTERS Q1
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
For Malloy           58%    59%    58%
Against Foley        33     31     34
DK/NA                 9     10      8
 
 
2b. (If Foley voter q1) Is your vote for governor mainly for Foley or against Malloy?
                     LIKELY FOLEY VOTERS Q1
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
For Foley            33%    38%    26%
Against Malloy       62     56     70
DK/NA                 5      5      5
 
 
2c. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING VISCONTI VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT VISCONTI...........
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               43%    11%    80%    38%    36%    49%
Foley                49     85     12     52     58     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      2      1      1      1
DK/NA                 7      4      6      9      5      8
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            40%    13%    69%    37%    37%    43%
Unfavorable          53     79     24     56     59     48
Hvn't hrd enough      5      6      5      4      3      6
REFUSED               2      3      2      3      1      3
 
 
3a. Is your opinion of Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable q3) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Strongly favorable   17%     6%    34%    12%    14%    20%
Somewhat favorable   22      7     35     25     22     23
Somewhat unfavorable 13     17     11     12     13     13
Strongly unfavorable 40     61     13     44     46     35
Hvn't hrd enough      5      6      5      4      3      6
REFUSED/DK/NA         2      3      2      3      1      3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            42%    74%    15%    42%    52%    34%
Unfavorable          33     10     59     28     30     35
Hvn't hrd enough     23     14     23     28     17     28
REFUSED               2      1      3      2      2      2
 
 
4a. Is your opinion of Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable q4) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Strongly favorable   20%    38%     9%    16%    25%    15%
Somewhat favorable   22     35      7     26     26     19
Somewhat unfavorable 12      4     18     11     12     12
Strongly unfavorable 21      6     41     17     18     23
Hvn't hrd enough     23     14     23     28     17     28
REFUSED/DK/NA         2      2      3      2      2      3
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Joe Visconti favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             6%     4%     7%     6%     7%     6%
Unfavorable           4      3      7      3      5      4
Hvn't hrd enough     89     92     86     90     88     90
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1
 
 
5a. Is your opinion of Joe Visconti favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable q5) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Strongly favorable    3%     2%     4%     1%     3%     3%
Somewhat favorable    4      3      3      4      4      3
Somewhat unfavorable  2      1      2      1      2      1
Strongly unfavorable  2      2      4      1      2      3
Hvn't hrd enough     89     92     86     90     88     90
REFUSED/DK/NA         1      1      1      1      1      1
 
 
6. Which one of these five issues matters most in deciding how you vote for Governor: the economy and jobs, government spending, taxes, gun policy, or education?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Economy and jobs     40%    38%    47%    39%    40%    41%
Government spending  19     24     12     20     19     19
Taxes                16     24      8     17     15     17
Gun policy           11      7     13     10     14      8
Education            12      4     18     11     10     13
DK/NA                 3      3      3      2      3      3
 
 
7. Would you say that Dan Malloy - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  51%    30%    75%    49%    49%    52%
No                   38     57     16     39     43     33
DK/NA                12     13      9     12      8     15
 
 
8. Would you say that Dan Malloy - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  48%    27%    74%    45%    45%    51%
No                   46     69     19     49     51     42
DK/NA                 6      4      7      6      5      7
 
 
9. Would you say that Dan Malloy - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  57%    35%    75%    58%    54%    59%
No                   38     61     18     37     43     34
DK/NA                 5      4      7      5      3      7
 
 
10. Do you think Dan Malloy is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Liberal              45%    75%    15%    48%    55%    37%
Conservative          5      3      7      5      5      5
About right          43     15     73     41     36     49
DK/NA                 7      7      5      6      4      9
 
 
11. Would you say that Tom Foley - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  44%    72%    21%    43%    53%    36%
No                   28     11     47     27     25     31
DK/NA                28     17     32     29     22     33
 
 
12. Would you say that Tom Foley - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  46%    76%    19%    46%    53%    39%
No                   35     11     59     33     31     38
DK/NA                19     13     21     21     16     23
 
 
13. Would you say that Tom Foley - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  53%    76%    29%    56%    60%    48%
No                   24     10     41     21     21     26
DK/NA                23     14     30     23     19     26
 
 
14. Would you say that Tom Foley - has the right kind of experience to be governor of Connecticut or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  57%    84%    27%    59%    65%    49%
No                   30      9     54     27     25     34
DK/NA                14      8     19     14     10     17
 
 
15. Do you think Tom Foley is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Liberal               6%     6%     4%     6%     4%     7%
Conservative         29      7     56     23     28     30
About right          48     77     17     53     55     42
DK/NA                17      9     23     18     13     21
 
 
16. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - the economy and jobs, Malloy or Foley?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               37%     7%    72%    32%    31%    43%
Foley                54     85     21     56     63     45
DK/NA                 9      8      7     12      6     11
 
 
17. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - taxes, Malloy or Foley?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               31%     6%    60%    27%    25%    36%
Foley                59     89     28     61     69     49
DK/NA                10      4     12     12      6     15
 
 
18. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - education, Malloy or Foley?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               46%    17%    75%    45%    43%    49%
Foley                40     72     12     38     45     36
DK/NA                14     11     13     17     13     15
 
 
19. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - gun policy, Malloy or Foley?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               46%    20%    75%    43%    42%    49%
Foley                41     67     14     42     49     33
DK/NA                14     12     12     15      9     18
 
 
20. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job when it comes to finding the right balance between cutting government spending that is not needed and continuing government spending that is needed, Malloy or Foley?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               36%     8%    66%    33%    31%    41%
Foley                54     85     22     57     64     45
DK/NA                10      7     12     10      6     13
 
 

Demographic Summary