October 22, 2014 - Malloy, Foley Neck And Neck In Connecticut Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Visconti's 9 Percent Doesn't Seem To Matter Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy is locked in a repeat of the 2010 down-to-the-wire governor's race as he holds 43 percent of likely voters to Republican challenger Tom Foley's 42 percent, with 9 percent for independent candidate Joe Visconti, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 43 - 43 percent dead heat among likely voters in an October 8 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

With Visconti out of the race, it's a 45 - 45 percent tie today.

The gender gap is wide in the three-way race as Gov. Malloy leads Foley 51 - 32 percent among women, with 9 percent for Visconti, while Foley leads Malloy 53 - 34 percent among men, with 9 percent for Visconti.

Independent voters are divided with 38 percent for Foley, 36 percent for Malloy and 16 percent for Visconti. Malloy tops Foley among Democrats, 81 - 11 percent, with 4 percent for Visconti. Foley beats Malloy 85 - 6 percent among Republicans, with 6 percent for Visconti.

With 13 days until the election, 81 percent of Connecticut likely voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 18 percent say they might change their mind. Their minds are made up, say 86 percent of Malloy voters and 84 percent of Foley backers, while 49 percent of Visconti supporters say they might change their mind.

"The race for Connecticut governor looks very much like it will go down to the wire - again," said Douglas Schwartz, PhD, director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

"Republican Tom Foley has to be concerned that this is the first likely voter poll in which Gov. Dannel Malloy has a numerical edge, even though it's razor-thin."

"As expected, Democrats and Republicans are coming home with both Malloy and Foley winning at least 80 percent of their bases, but the independent voters are really up for grabs, with independent Joe Visconti now taking 16 percent of the independent vote," Dr. Schwartz added.

"The gender gap is now a huge 38 points, with men going to Foley by 19 points and women for Malloy by 19 points.

Connecticut likely voters give both major party candidates negative favorability ratings:
  • Malloy gets a negative 42 - 50 percent favorability, virtually unchanged from October 8;
  • Foley gets a negative 40 - 46 percent favorability, down from his split 41 - 39 percent score two weeks ago;
  • 80 percent of voters still don't know enough about Visconti to form an opinion, compared to an 86 percent "don't know enough" rating two weeks ago.
"The other bad news for Tom Foley is that his favorability rating continues to tumble," Schwartz said. "For the first time, more voters have a negative view of him than a positive view. The more voters get to know him, the less they like him.

"The good news for Foley is that Malloy's favorability is actually slightly worse.

"The Connecticut race recently was rated the most negative in the nation, and voters are giving a thumbs down to both major party candidates. With voters not liking either candidate very much, some voters could just choose the lesser of two evils. The dislike of Malloy and Foley helps explain why independent candidate Joe Visconti is holding onto 9 percent, at least for now."

From October 14 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,010 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat, Tom Foley the Republican, and Joe Visconti running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy, Foley, or Visconti? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               43%     6%    81%    36%    34%    51%
Foley                42     85     11     38     53     32
Visconti              9      6      4     16      9      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1
DK/NA                 6      3      3      8      4      7
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat, Tom Foley the Republican, and Joe Visconti running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy, Foley, or Visconti? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 22  Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Malloy               43      43      40
Foley                42      43      46
Visconti              9       9       7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       1
DK/NA                 6       5       6
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Malloy Foley  Visconti
 
Mind made up         81%    86%    84%    50%
Might change         18     13     16     49
DK/NA                 1      1      -      -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN......
                     Oct 22  Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Mind made up         81      74      69
Might change         18      25      30
DK/NA                 1       1       1
 
 
2. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING VISCONTI VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT VISCONTI...........
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               45%     8%    82%    40%    35%    54%
Foley                45     88     12     44     57     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      4      2      2
DK/NA                 8      3      5     11      6      9
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING VISCONTI VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...........
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT VISCONTI
                     Oct 22  Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Malloy               45      46      43
Foley                45      46      49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       1
DK/NA                 8       7       7
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            42%    11%    72%    39%    36%    48%
Unfavorable          50     87     19     52     59     43
Hvn't hrd enough      5      -      7      5      3      6
REFUSED               3      2      2      3      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 22  Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            42      41      40
Unfavorable          50      51      53
Hvn't hrd enough      5       5       5
REFUSED               3       3       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            40%    78%    10%    39%    50%    31%
Unfavorable          46     11     74     47     37     54
Hvn't hrd enough     12      9     14     12     11     13
REFUSED               2      2      2      3      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 22  Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            40      41      42
Unfavorable          46      39      33
Hvn't hrd enough     12      18      23
REFUSED               2       2       2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Joe Visconti favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            11%    13%     7%    14%    14%     9%	
Unfavorable           8      6     10      8     11      5
Hvn't hrd enough     80     80     81     77     74     84
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Visconti favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 22  Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            11       7       6
Unfavorable           8       7       4
Hvn't hrd enough     80      86      89
REFUSED               1       1       1
 

Demographic Summary