October 29, 2014 - War Of The Sexes Leaves Connecticut Gov Race Tied, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Like Foley A Little More Than Malloy Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Men and women likely voters are miles apart, leaving the Connecticut governor's race between Democratic incumbent Gov. Dannel Malloy and Republican challenger Tom Foley tied 43 - 43 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent candidate Joe Visconti has 7 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

This compares to results of an October 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Gov. Malloy with 43 percent of likely voters to Foley's 42 percent.

Today, with Visconti out of the race, Foley gets 46 percent to Malloy's 45 percent.

In the three-way matchup, independent voters go to Foley over Malloy 48 - 33 percent, with 14 percent for Visconti.

Republicans back Foley 87 - 7 percent, with 4 percent for Visconti. Democrats go to Malloy 82 - 9 percent, with 3 percent for Visconti.

The gender gap remains wide, as Malloy leads Foley 52 - 35 percent among women, with 5 percent for Visconti, while Foley leads Malloy 51 - 34 percent among men, with 10 percent for Visconti.

"The Connecticut governor's race is a fight to the finish between Gov. Dannel Malloy and challenger Tom Foley - and between men and women," said Douglas Schwartz, PhD, director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Independent candidate Joe Visconti's numbers have edged slightly downward. Not a surprise given that many of his supporters told us they could change their mind. Perhaps we are beginning to see some of those more conservative minded Visconti voters shift to Foley as the election draws near," Dr. Schwartz added.

Just 6 days before the election, 86 percent of Connecticut likely voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 13 percent say they might change their mind. Their minds are made up, say 89 percent of Malloy voters and 90 percent of Foley backers, while 56 percent of Visconti supporters say they might change their mind.

Connecticut likely voters give Foley a split 43 - 43 percent favorability rating, while Malloy gets a negative 41 - 52 percent score. Visconti remains unknown as 75 percent of voters still don't know enough about him to form an opinion,

"Foley's favorability rating has improved. Voters now have a mixed opinion of him after viewing him negatively. Voters' views of Malloy are stable and negative," Schwartz said.

"Will Connecticut visits by President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama in the final week of the campaign motivate the Democratic base to turnout in an election where they otherwise might stay home? And will that be enough to put Malloy ahead?

"Or will New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie's appearance on behalf of Foley get Republicans fired up more?"

From October 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 838 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat, Tom Foley the Republican, and Joe Visconti running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy, Foley, or Visconti? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               43%     7%    82%    33%    34%    52%
Foley                43     87      9     48     51     35
Visconti              7      4      3     14     10      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 6      3      6      5      5      7
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat, Tom Foley the Republican, and Joe Visconti running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy, Foley, or Visconti? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 22  Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Malloy               43      43      43      40
Foley                43      42      43      46
Visconti              7       9       9       7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       -       1
DK/NA                 6       6       5       6
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Malloy Foley  Visconti
 
Mind made up         86%    89%    90%    42%
Might change         13     10      9     56
DK/NA                 1      1      1      2
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN..............
                     Oct 29  Oct 22  Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Mind made up         86      81      74      69
Might change         13      18      25      30
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1
 
 
2. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING VISCONTI VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT VISCONTI...........
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Malloy               45%     7%    83%    37%    35%    54%
Foley                46     88     10     54     55     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      2      -
DK/NA                 8      3      6      9      7      9
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING VISCONTI VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT VISCONTI......
                     Oct 29  Oct 22  Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Malloy               45      45      46      43
Foley                46      45      46      49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       1       1
DK/NA                 8       8       7       7
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            41%     9%    74%    33%    31%    50%
Unfavorable          52     89     17     61     63     42
Hvn't hrd enough      4      -      4      4      3      5
REFUSED               3      2      4      2      3      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 22  Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            41      42      41      40
Unfavorable          52      50      51      53
Hvn't hrd enough      4       5       5       5
REFUSED               3       3       3       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            43%    79%    13%    48%    50%    37%
Unfavorable          43     11     72     40     40     46
Hvn't hrd enough     10      8     13      9      7     13
REFUSED               3      2      2      3      3      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 22  Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            43      40      41      42
Unfavorable          43      46      39      33
Hvn't hrd enough     10      12      18      23
REFUSED               3       2       2       2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Joe Visconti favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            11%    13%     6%    16%    17%     7%
Unfavorable          11     10     16      6     13      9
Hvn't hrd enough     75     74     76     76     67     83
REFUSED               2      3      2      2      3      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Visconti favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 29  Oct 22  Oct 08  Sep 10
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            11      11       7       6
Unfavorable          11       8       7       4
Hvn't hrd enough     75      80      86      89
REFUSED               2       1       1       1
 
 

Demographic Summary