March 12, 2015 - Clinton Can Just E-Mail It In To Win Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Bush, Walker Top Republican Field, But Trail Dem Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dominates the Democratic primary field in an early look at the 2016 White House run in Connecticut and tops possible Republican challengers by margins of 18 to 25 percentage points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker have 18 percent each in a possible Republican primary matchup, with 12 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and 11 percent for New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University Poll finds. No other candidate tops 7 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

Secretary Clinton tops the Democratic pack with 53 percent, followed by U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts with 15 percent and Vice President Joseph Biden with 8 percent. No other candidate tops 2 percent and 15 percent are undecided.

Clinton tops any listed Republican contender by double digits in Connecticut:
  • 52 - 34 percent over Bush:
  • 52 - 34 percent over Christie;
  • 54 - 32 percent over Paul;
  • 56 - 31 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee;
  • 53 - 34 percent over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida;
  • 53 - 33 percent over Walker;
  • 55 - 30 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.
"In blue Connecticut, Hillary Clinton has big double-digit leads against top Republican contenders," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

"Despite the current e-mail controversy surrounding Clinton, she is well-liked in Connecticut while the Republican contenders get either mixed evaluations or negative ones from voters."

By a 56 - 38 percent margin, Connecticut voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Favorability ratings for Republicans are:
  • Negative 37 - 41 percent for Christie;
  • Negative 25 - 36 percent for Paul;
  • Negative 26 - 36 percent for Huckabee;
  • Negative 33 - 39 percent for Bush;
  • 24 - 23 percent for Rubio, with 52 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion;
  • 22 - 22 percent for Walker with 56 percent who don't know enough about him;
  • Negative 16 - 30 percent for Cruz, with 53 percent who don't know enough about him.
Connecticut voters give President Barack Obama a split 48 - 48 percent job approval rating, unchanged from his 48 - 48 percent score in a May 9, 2014, Quinnipiac University poll.

U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal gets a 64 - 26 percent job approval rating, matching his all- time high 64 - 26 percent score May 9. Only Republicans disapprove 56 - 37 percent.

Blumenthal deserves reelection in 2016, voters say 59 - 27 percent.

Voters approve 55 - 25 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy is doing.

"U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal is in very strong position for reelection in 2016 with high job approval and reelection numbers," Schwartz said.

From March 6 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,235 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 323 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percentage points and 459 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Scott Walker, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Bush                 18%     7%    18%    25%    16%    19%
Carson                7     14      2      8      8      6
Christie             11      1     13     16      7     16
Cruz                  5     17      4      -      6      5
Graham                -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              3      2      2      4      3      3
Jindal                2      4      2      -      2      1
Kasich                -      1      -      -      -      1
Paul                 12     14     11     10     13     10
Perry                 2      1      3      3      4      -
Rubio                 4      8      4      3      3      6
Santorum              -      -      -      1      -      -
Walker               18     25     24      9     22     12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      1      5      1      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      -      1      6      3      3
DK/NA                12      5     14     11     11     12
 
 
2. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Jim Webb, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                 8%     7%     5%     8%     8%     8%
Clinton              53     56     52     54     48     56
O'Malley              1      -      -      3      2      1
Sanders               2      3      2      1      4      1
Warren               15     27     20      7     16     13
Webb                  1      -      1      2      1      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      3      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      -      1      7      5      2
DK/NA                15      7     18     16     13     17
 
 
3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              52%     8%    89%    44%    47%    56%    65%    53%    49%
Christie             34     85      3     37     40     29     26     34     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      2      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      4      1      7      5      4      3      4      6
DK/NA                 8      2      7     10      6      9      4      8      6
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              54%    12%    90%    46%    48%    60%    67%    56%    51%
Paul                 32     83      4     33     41     24     25     32     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      2      1      7      5      4      3      2      5
DK/NA                 8      2      5     13      6     10      4     10      7
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              56%    11%    90%    50%    50%    62%    72%    58%    50%
Huckabee             31     83      3     30     38     24     19     28     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      1      7      5      4      3      4      5
DK/NA                 8      2      6     10      6      9      5      9      6
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              52%     9%    88%    44%    45%    58%    66%    53%    47%
Bush                 34     86      5     36     42     28     23     32     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      2      2      2      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      2      1      8      6      3      4      5      5
DK/NA                 7      2      6     10      6      9      4      8      6
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              53%     8%    90%    44%    46%    59%    67%    55%    48%
Rubio                34     88      3     35     42     26     23     30     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      1      7      4      3      4      3      4
DK/NA                 9      3      6     12      6     11      4     11      7
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Scott Walker the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              53%     7%    90%    45%    47%    58%    68%    53%    48%
Walker               33     89      3     33     41     26     23     31     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2      1      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      -      8      5      3      3      4      4
DK/NA                 9      3      6     13      6     12      5     11      8
 
 
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Clinton              55%     8%    91%    49%    50%    60%    67%    57%    52%
Cruz                 30     82      2     29     38     22     21     29     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2      1      2      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      -      6      4      3      3      2      5
DK/NA                10      5      6     14      7     13      8     10      9
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            56%    15%    89%    50%    49%    62%    69%    59%    51%
Unfavorable          38     81      6     43     47     30     24     36     44
Hvn't hrd enough      4      4      4      5      3      6      7      4      4
REFUSED               2      -      1      3      1      2      -      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Mar 12  Mar 27  Nov 08  May 10  Feb 19
                     2015    2008    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable            56      46      48      49      53
Unfavorable          38      47      39      42      36
Hvn't hrd enough      4       5      10       7       8
REFUSED               2       2       4       2       3
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            37%    56%    24%    40%    40%    34%    32%    41%    36%
Unfavorable          41     27     54     38     42     40     30     41     46
Hvn't hrd enough     19     16     18     20     16     23     38     16     15
REFUSED               2      1      3      2      2      3      -      3      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            25%    47%     9%    29%    34%    18%    22%    27%    26%
Unfavorable          36     17     52     31     32     38     27     34     40
Hvn't hrd enough     38     34     38     38     32     42     50     37     33
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      2      1      2      2
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            26%    56%     7%    27%    31%    21%    17%    24%    30%
Unfavorable          36     14     54     32     38     33     26     38     37
Hvn't hrd enough     37     29     37     40     29     44     57     36     31
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      2      1      1      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Mar 12  Feb 19
                     2015    2007
 
Favorable            26       5
Unfavorable          36       9
Hvn't hrd enough     37      85
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            33%    61%    15%    37%    36%    30%    23%    31%    38%
Unfavorable          39     16     56     34     36     42     43     40     37
Hvn't hrd enough     26     23     27     26     26     26     31     27     22
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      3      2      2      2      2
 
 
15. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            24%    56%     9%    22%    29%    20%    21%    20%    28%
Unfavorable          23      2     39     21     26     21     15     23     26
Hvn't hrd enough     52     42     50     57     45     58     64     56     45
REFUSED               1      -      2      1      1      1      -      1      1
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            22%    55%     6%    19%    25%    18%    16%    17%    27%
Unfavorable          22      3     39     17     25     19     13     22     25
Hvn't hrd enough     56     42     55     63     49     63     71     61     48
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      -      -      1
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            16%    39%     4%    14%    22%    11%    14%    15%    17%
Unfavorable          30      9     49     26     34     27     23     27     36
Hvn't hrd enough     53     51     47     60     44     61     63     57     47
REFUSED               -      1      -      -      -      1      -      1      1
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Murphy is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              55%    35%    70%    55%    51%    59%    57%    54%    58%
Disapprove           25     47      9     26     31     19     23     25     25
DK/NA                20     19     21     19     17     22     20     21     18
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Murphy is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Mar 12  May 09  Mar 06  Jun 19  Mar 12
                     2015    2014    2014    2013    2013
 
Approve              55      51      53      52      50
Disapprove           25      29      31      32      34
DK/NA                20      20      16      16      16
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              64%    37%    78%    65%    58%    69%    58%    63%    68%
Disapprove           26     56      9     25     31     21     27     25     25
DK/NA                11      7     13     10     11     10     15     12      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as United States Senator? (* High also 64% May 2014, Mar 2012)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 12  May 09  Mar 06  Jun 19  Mar 12  Mar 12  Mar 09
                     2015    2014    2014    2013    2013    2015*   2011
                                                                     
Approve              64      64      61      62      63      64      49
Disapprove           26      26      31      28      27      26      25
DK/NA                11      10       8      10      10      11      26
 
 
23. Looking ahead to the 2016 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Richard Blumenthal deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes/Deserves         59%    31%    75%    59%    54%    63%    53%    59%    63%
No/Does not          27     62      9     27     35     21     29     25     27
DK/NA                14      7     16     14     11     16     17     16      9
 
 
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              48%     8%    82%    39%    44%    51%    61%    49%    42%
Disapprove           48     92     15     55     52     44     37     46     53
DK/NA                 4      -      4      6      3      5      2      4      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? (*High also 71% Apr 2009)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 12  May 09  Mar 04  Jun 19  Mar 12  May 27  Mar 04
                     2015    2014    2014    2013    2013    2009*   2014
 
Approve              48      48      45      50      53      71      45
Disapprove           48      48      51      46      44      22      51
DK/NA                 4       4       4       4       3       7       4