October 22, 2014 - Men, Women Divided As Florida Gov Race Is Dead Heat, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Scott, Crist Both Get Negative Ratings Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Women and men are polar opposites in the Florida governor's race, as likely voters split 42 - 42 percent between Republican Gov. Rick Scott and former Gov. Charlie Crist, running as a Democrat, with 7 percent for Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to results of a September 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing Gov. Scott with 44 percent of likely voters, Crist with 42 percent and Wyllie with 8 percent.

With Wyllie out of the race, Scott and Crist still are locked at 44 - 44 percent.

Men and women just about cancel each other out in the three-way matchup. Scott leads Crist among men 46 - 38 percent, with 10 percent for Wyllie, while Crist leads Scott 45 - 39 percent among women, with 6 percent for Wyllie.

Crist gets 41 percent of independent voters, to Scott's 38 percent, with 11 percent for Wyllie. Republicans back Scott over Crist 81 - 7 percent, with 6 percent for Wyllie. Democrats go to Crist over Scott 86 - 5 percent, with 3 percent for Wyllie.

Among those who already have voted, Crist gets 42 percent to Scott's 38 percent.

With 13 days until Election Day, 90 percent of voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 10 percent say they might change their mind. Their mind is made up, say 92 percent of Crist voters, 90 percent of Scott supporters and 78 percent of Wyllie backers.

"When the campaign began, everyone talked about how unusual the Florida governor's race would be because two governors, incumbent Gov. Rick Scott and former Gov. Charlie Crist, were facing off," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"But, as it enters the home stretch, it's just like many other races across the country: There is a sizable gender gap; tens of millions are being spent on negative TV ads and there is a dead heat in which neither candidate has an edge," Brown added.

"For all the money spent on this race, it now appears the winner will be the one whose organization excels at the blocking and tackling of politics - getting their voters to the polls."

Florida likely voters dislike Crist a little less than Scott and still don't know much about Wyllie.

Crist gets a negative 42 - 47 percent favorability rating, compared to Scott's negative 40 - 48 percent, while 83 percent of likely voters do not know enough about Wyllie to form an opinion of him.

"Will nice guys finish last in the Florida governor's race? According to voters, there are no nice guys in this race, since neither Scott nor Crist are viewed favorably," Brown said. "The Florida governor's race challenges the idea that voters won't vote for a candidate they don't like. In the Sunshine State this year, voters definitely are voting for the lesser of two evils."

From October 14 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 984 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican, and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Crist, Scott, or Wyllie? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Crist                42%     7%    86%    41%    38%    45%    42%
Scott                42     81      5     38     46     39     38
Wyllie                7      6      3     11     10      6      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 8      5      6      9      5     10     16
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican, and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Crist, Scott, or Wyllie? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014
 
Crist                42      42
Scott                42      44
Wyllie                7       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
DK/NA                 8       5
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Crist  Scott  Wyllie
 
Mind made up         90%    92%    90%    78%
Might change         10      8     10     22
DK/NA                 -      -      1      -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN
                     Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014
 
Mind made up         90      81
Might change         10      17
DK/NA                 -       1
 
 
2. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING WYLLIE VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT WYLLIE........................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Crist                44%     8%    87%    46%    41%    46%    43%
Scott                44     85      6     40     48     40     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      3      1      2      1
DK/NA                11      8      7     11      9     12     17
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING WYLLIE VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT WYLLIE
                     Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014
 
Crist                44      44
Scott                44      46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2
DK/NA                11       7
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            42%    12%    83%    38%    38%    45%    42%
Unfavorable          47     79      9     49     52     42     44
Hvn't hrd enough      6      5      6      7      5      7      6
REFUSED               5      3      2      6      4      5      7
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            42      41
Unfavorable          47      49
Hvn't hrd enough      6       8
REFUSED               5       3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            40%    73%     7%    38%    45%    36%    38%
Unfavorable          48     16     84     51     44     52     47
Hvn't hrd enough      7      6      7      8      7      7      8
REFUSED               5      5      3      3      4      5      8
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable            40      42
Unfavorable          48      48
Hvn't hrd enough      7       7
REFUSED               5       3
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Adrian Wyllie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable             8%     6%     4%    12%    11%     5%     4%
Unfavorable           6      5      6      6      9      4      6
Hvn't hrd enough     83     87     88     80     77     89     85
REFUSED               3      2      2      2      3      2      5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Adrian Wyllie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014
 
Favorable             8       8
Unfavorable           6       4
Hvn't hrd enough     83      86
REFUSED               3       2
 
 

Demographic Summary