October 30, 2014 - Independent Voters Boost Crist In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Like Republican Turned Dem A Little More Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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A jump in support from independent likely voters in the Florida governor's race leaves Democrat Charlie Crist with 43 percent, inches ahead of Republican incumbent Gov. Rick Scott with 40 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie has 8 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

This compares to results of an October 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Gov. Scott and Crist tied 42 - 42 percent, with Wyllie at 7 percent.

With Wyllie out of the race, Crist gets 45 percent to Scott's 42 percent.

Men and women remain divided in the three-way matchup. Scott leads Crist among men 47 - 37 percent, with 9 percent for Wyllie, while Crist leads Scott 49 - 35 percent among women, with 6 percent for Wyllie.

Independent voters go to Crist over Scott 47 - 29 percent, with 16 percent for Wyllie. This compares to last week's result, showing Crist taking 41 percent of independent voters, to Scott's 38 percent, with 11 percent for Wyllie.

Republicans back Scott over Crist 81 - 8 percent, with 4 percent for Wyllie. Democrats go to Crist over Scott 83 - 7 percent, with 3 percent for Wyllie.

Among those who already have voted, Crist gets 40 percent to Scott's 39 percent.

"Independent voters are often the difference in swing states like Florida, but the size of former Gov. Charlie Crist's lead among them is truly remarkable," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Crist, who always has sought to portray himself as a pragmatist rather than an ideologue, seems to have sold that message to independents who historically have favored problem-solvers who are less politicaI," Brown added. "It may turn out that Crist's change from Republican to independent to Democrat branded him as the kind of less political politician with the most important voter group. If Crist can win independents by 20 points on Election Day, he will be difficult to beat.

"It would be a reasonable hypothesis that the candidates' debates made a big difference in this race. Scott was ahead going into them and behind after them. It could be a coincidence, but it would be a pretty large coincidence. Crist has long been thought of as an excellent campaigner and he used those skills to his advantage.

"Wyllie is holding on to his 8 percent and if those voters decide to leave him for a major party candidate they could also make a difference."

Just five days before Election Day, 90 percent of voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 10 percent say they might change their mind. Their mind is made up, say 91 percent of Crist voters, 92 percent of Scott supporters and 67 percent of Wyllie backers.

Florida likely voters give Crist a split 45 - 45 percent favorability rating, compared to Scott's negative 41 - 46 percent, while 81 percent of likely voters still do not know enough about Wyllie to form an opinion of him.

From October 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 817 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican, and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Crist, Scott, or Wyllie? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Crist                43%     8%    83%    47%    37%    49%    40%
Scott                40     81      7     29     47     35     39
Wyllie                8      4      3     16      9      6      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      7      7      7      8     10     17
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican, and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Crist, Scott, or Wyllie? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 30  Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Crist                43      42      42
Scott                40      42      44
Wyllie                8       7       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1
DK/NA                 9       8       5
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Crist  Scott  Wyllie
 
Mind made up         90%    91%    92%    67%
Might change         10      8      8     32
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN
                     Oct 30  Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Mind made up         90      90      81
Might change         10      10      17
DK/NA                 -       -       1
 
 
2. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING WYLLIE VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT WYLLIE........................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Crist                45%     9%    84%    53%    39%    51%    41%
Scott                42     83      8     33     49     37     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      3      2      1      1
DK/NA                11      7      7     11     11     11     18
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING WYLLIE VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT WYLLIE
                     Oct 30  Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Crist                45      44      44
Scott                42      44      46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2
DK/NA                11      11       7
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            45%    10%    84%    49%    36%    53%    50%
Unfavorable          45     79     12     44     53     38     41
Hvn't hrd enough      5      5      3      4      7      3      3
REFUSED               5      5      1      3      4      6      6
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 30  Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            45      42      41
Unfavorable          45      47      49
Hvn't hrd enough      5       6       8
REFUSED               5       5       3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            41%    74%    14%    36%    45%    38%    40%
Unfavorable          46     15     74     56     45     48     50
Hvn't hrd enough      7      4     10      5      6      9      3
REFUSED               5      6      2      2      5      5      8
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 30  Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            41      40      42
Unfavorable          46      48      48	
Hvn't hrd enough      7       7       7
REFUSED               5       5       3
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Adrian Wyllie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            10%     8%     8%    15%    11%    10%    10%
Unfavorable           5      5      7      3      6      3      5
Hvn't hrd enough     81     83     82     80     80     83     79
REFUSED               3      4      2      2      3      4      6
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Adrian Wyllie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     Oct 30  Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            10       8       8
Unfavorable           5       6       4
Hvn't hrd enough     81      83      86
REFUSED               3       3       2
 
 

Demographic Summary