February 25, 2016 - Trump Trumps Rubio Among Florida Republicans, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Leadership Is Important Factor In Race Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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The Donald Trump juggernaut rolls into Florida where the GOP front-runner leads native son Sen. Marco Rubio 44 - 28 percent among likely Republican primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has 12 percent with Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 7 percent and Dr. Ben Carson at 4 percent.

Men back Trump over Rubio 49 - 25 percent, while women go to Trump 39 - 31 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Trump gets a low negative score in the Sunshine State as 21 percent of likely Republican primary voters say they "would definitely not support" Trump for the nomination, with 26 percent saying no to Cruz and 17 percent saying no to Rubio.

Five percent of Florida likely Republican primary voters are undecided and 30 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before the March 15 primary.

Strong leadership is the most important quality in a presidential nominee, 32 percent of Florida Republicans say, as 23 percent most want someone who is honest and trustworthy and 20 percent most want someone who shares their values.

"Florida is the single biggest prize of the primary season because it is the largest state to allocate its delegates on a winner-take-all basis. If Sen. Rubio can't win in his own home state, it is difficult to see how he can win elsewhere," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Florida election law makes this contest more uncertain than earlier primaries. Only registered Republicans may vote here, which raises the question of whether the flood of new voters Donald Trump seemed to bring to earlier contests will be able to participate in Florida."

"The size and shape of Trump's lead is impressive. He leads in every age group by 9 to 19 percentage points. He does better among men than among women and, despite being a New York multi-billionaire, he leads among those who identify with the Tea Party," Brown added.

"He also does twice as well among white evangelicals as does Sen. Ted Cruz, who is trying to make this group his core constituency.

"A third of likely primary voters say a candidate who is a strong leader is key to their choice and 66 percent of them support Trump."

Trump is the choice of 66 percent of Florida likely Republican primary voters who most want a candidate with strong leadership, with only 16 percent for Rubio.

The native son leads Trump 39 - 29 percent among Republicans who most want someone who shares their values.

Rubio and Trump are tied 30 - 30 percent among those who most want a candidate who is honest and trustworthy.

The economy and jobs is the most important primary election issue, 31 percent of Republicans say, with 18 percent citing terrorism and 14 percent listing immigration.

Trump tops Rubio 51 - 28 percent among voters who list the economy and jobs as the most important issue, 44 - 34 percent among those who cite terrorism and 66 - 12 percent among those who say immigration is most important.

From February 21 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 705 Florida likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the Republican primary were being held today, and the candidates were Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Carson, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, or Trump?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..........................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Carson                4%     4%     2%     4%     5%     2%     2%     5%     4%     3%
Cruz                 12     28     19     22      6      4     13     11     12     12
Kasich                7      1      4      2      5     16      8      6     11      5
Rubio                28     13     28     26     34     26     25     31     37     24
Trump                44     52     42     42     42     48     49     39     31     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      -      1      -      1      1      1
DK/NA                 5      1      4      3      8      3      3      7      5      4
 
                                          MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q3................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    Economy/
                     18-44  45-64  65+    Jobs          Terrorism     Immigration
 
Carson                4%     5%     2%     3%            -             5%
Cruz                 12     14      8     12             6            12
Kasich               12      4      8      5             4             3
Rubio                24     28     32     28            34            12
Trump                43     46     41     51            44            66
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      2      -             1             -
DK/NA                 4      3      7      2            12             1
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTIC Q4....................
                     Shares        Strong        Honest/       BestChance
                     Values        Leader        Trustworthy   OfWinning
 
Carson                3%            3%            5%            2%
Cruz                 18             9            18             7
Kasich                6             3            12             4
Rubio                39            16            30            54
Trump                29            66            30            28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1             -             -             -
DK/NA                 5             4             5             3
 
 
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS......................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Rubio         Trump
 
Made up              69%           68%           67%           73%
Might change         30            32            32            25
DK/NA                 1             -             1             2
 
 
2. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..........................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Carson               13%    11%     9%     9%    15%    16%    17%     9%    13%    13%
Cruz                 26     13     18     17     27     36     28     25     29     25
Kasich               11     16      9     15      6     10     13      8     13     10
Rubio                17     18     12     15     16     17     20     13     13     18
Trump                21     12     17     17     18     28     18     24     30     17
No/No one            33     42     44     43     32     22     33     33     34     32
DK/NA                 5      7      5      4      5      6      3      6      1      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......
                     18-44  45-64  65+
 
Carson               20%    11%    11%
Cruz                 32     25     23
Kasich               18      9      6
Rubio                27     17      7
Trump                28     16     21
No/No one            16     38     43
DK/NA                 5      2      6
 
 
3. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, gun policy or taxes?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..........................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy and jobs     31%    25%    32%    24%    31%    36%    35%    26%    33%    30%
Terrorism            18     22     20     19     22     16     13     24     17     19
Immigration          14     17     10     16     10     15     13     14     12     15
Federal deficit       8      7     10     10      8      5      8      8     12      6
Health care           4      5      5      5      3      3      2      6      3      4
Foreign policy        8      5      6      6     10      8      9      7     10      7
Climate change        1      -      -      1      2      2      1      2      1      1
Race relations        1      -      -      -      2      2      2      -      1      1
Abortion              4      4      8      8      2      1      3      5      4      4
Gun policy            3      7      1      3      2      2      5      -      1      4
Taxes                 4      3      3      3      4      4      5      2      5      3
DK/NA                 5      6      5      6      2      6      4      7      3      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......
                     18-44  45-64  65+
 
Economy and jobs     37%    32%    26%
Terrorism            13     17     21
Immigration           8     16     14
Federal deficit       8      9      7
Health care           2      5      4
Foreign policy        4      8     11
Climate change        4      1      -
Race relations        3      -      -
Abortion              7      3      3
Gun policy            4      2      1
Taxes                 6      2      3
DK/NA                 4      5      7
 
 
4. Thinking about the Republican nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..........................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Shares values        20%    23%    23%    25%    15%    17%    18%    22%    19%    20%
Cares needs/problems  9      8      7      4      7     16      8      9      8      9
Strong leadership    32     33     29     31     41     26     36     27     25     36
Honest/trustworthy   23     19     27     25     20     23     19     27     25     22
Right experience      6      3      3      4      3     10      6      5      8      5
Best chance/winning   8     10     10     10     11      5     10      7     13      6
DK/NA                 2      4      1      2      2      3      2      3      3      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......
                     18-44  45-64  65+
 
Shares values        22%    22%    16%
Cares needs/problems  7      8     10
Strong leadership    37     33     28
Honest/trustworthy   22     21     26
Right experience      8      4      6
Best chance/winning   4     10     10
DK/NA                 1      1      5
 
 

Sample and Methodology detail