November 3, 2014 - Crist 42%, Scott 41% In Florida Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Wyllie's 7% And 9% Undecided Are Keys To Outcome Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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The Florida governor's race goes down to the wire, with Democrat Charlie Crist at 42 percent of likely voters to Republican incumbent Gov. Rick Scott's 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie has 7 percent, with 9 percent undecided the day before election.

This compares to results of an October 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Crist with 43 percent of likely voters to Gov. Scott's 40 percent, with Wyllie at 8 percent.

With Wyllie out of the race, Crist gets 44 percent to Scott's 42 percent.

Scott leads Crist among men 47 - 34 percent, with 8 percent for Wyllie, while Crist leads Scott 50 - 35 percent among women, with 6 percent for Wyllie. Independent voters go to Crist 39 - 32 percent, with 16 percent for Wyllie. Republicans back Scott 81 - 8 percent, with 4 percent for Wyllie. Democrats go to Crist 84 - 6 percent, with 2 percent for Wyllie.

Among those who already have voted, Crist gets 44 percent to Scott's 40 percent.

"After an incredibly expensive, extremely nasty campaign, the Florida governor's race is too close to call. The winner will be the candidate best able to get his voters to the polls. Turnout, turnout, turnout," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

One day before Election Day, 95 percent of voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 5 percent say they might change their mind.

Florida likely voters give Crist a negative 43 - 50 percent favorability rating, compared to Scott's negative 42 - 49 percent, while 83 percent of likely voters still do not know enough about Wyllie to form an opinion of him.

From October 28 - November 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 817 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican, and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Crist, Scott, or Wyllie? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Crist                42%     8%    84%    39%    34%    50%    44%
Scott                41     81      6     32     47     35     40
Wyllie                7      4      2     16      8      6      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      3      2      1      1
DK/NA                 9      6      8     10      9      9     12
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican, and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Crist, Scott, or Wyllie? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Nov 03  Oct 30  Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Crist                42      43      42      42
Scott                41      40      42      44
Wyllie                7       8       7       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       1       1
DK/NA                 9       9       8       5
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Crist  Scott  Wyllie
 
Mind made up         95%    96%    96%    78%
Might change          5      4      3     22
DK/NA                 1      -      2      -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN..............
                     Nov 03  Oct 30  Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Mind made up         95      90      90      81
Might change          5      10      10      17
DK/NA                 1       -       -       1
 
 
2. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING WYLLIE VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                     MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT WYLLIE........................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Crist                44%    10%    85%    41%    35%    52%    45%
Scott                42     82      6     34     50     36     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      1      9      4      2      2
DK/NA                11      7      8     15     12     10     13
 
TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING WYLLIE VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     MATCHUP WITHOUT WYLLIE........
                     Nov 03  Oct 30  Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Crist                44      45      44      44
Scott                42      42      44      46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       2       2       2
DK/NA                11      11      11       7	
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            43%    11%    82%    38%    37%    48%    46%
Unfavorable          50     85     13     51     56     44     47
Hvn't hrd enough      4      2      3      6      3      4      3
REFUSED               4      2      2      4      5      3      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Nov 03  Oct 30  Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            43      45      42      41
Unfavorable          50      45      47      49
Hvn't hrd enough      4       5       6       8
REFUSED               4       5       5       3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            42%    80%    10%    31%    46%    38%    40%
Unfavorable          49     15     85     53     44     54     51
Hvn't hrd enough      5      2      3     11      5      4      3
REFUSED               5      3      2      6      5      4      6
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Nov 03  Oct 30  Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            42      41      40      42
Unfavorable          49      46      48      48
Hvn't hrd enough      5       7       7       7
REFUSED               5       5       5       3
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Adrian Wyllie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable             9%     8%     4%    16%    11%     7%     7%
Unfavorable           5      5      5      6      5      5      5
Hvn't hrd enough     83     85     89     76     81     85     86
REFUSED               3      2      2      2      3      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Adrian Wyllie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Nov 03  Oct 30  Oct 22  Sep 24
                     2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable             9      10       8       8
Unfavorable           5       5       6       4
Hvn't hrd enough     83      81      83      86
REFUSED               3       3       3       2
 
 

Demographic Summary