September 18, 2014 - Iowa's Branstad Looks Unstoppable For Sixth Term, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Tops Challenger By 23 Points Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad is rolling towards an historic sixth term with a 60 - 37 percent likely voter lead over State Sen. Jack Hatch, the Democratic challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Gov. Branstad leads 54 - 43 percent among women and 66 - 30 percent among men, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. This survey of likely voters can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

The incumbent leads 95 - 4 percent among Republicans and 62 - 33 percent among independent voters, while Hatch leads 81 - 17 percent among Democrats.

Their mind is made up, 82 percent of voters say, while 18 percent say they could change their mind before Election Day.

Iowa likely voters have a 59 - 33 percent favorable opinion of Branstad. Hatch gets a split 29 - 26 percent favorability, with 44 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

"We still have seven weeks until Election Day, but barring what would be one of the largest turnarounds in American political history Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad is on the road to the history books," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Sen. Jack Hatch obviously has a long, long way to go.

"Ironically, given the partisanship that dominates American politics, Gov. Branstad presumably will wrest the record for being the nation's longest serving governor from a Clinton, but no kin of Bill and Hillary. From 1777 to 1795 and 1801 to 1804 George Clinton was New York's governor."

Iowa likely voters give Branstad high grades on key character issues:
  • Voters say 62 - 32 percent that the governor is honest and trustworthy, compared to 41 - 25 percent for the challenger.
  • Branstad cares about their needs and problems, voters say 64 - 31 percent, compared to 46 - 28 percent for Hatch.
  • Voters say 75 - 22 percent the Republican has strong leadership qualities, compared to 40 - 28 percent for the Democrat.
From September 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,167 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jack Hatch the Democrat and Terry Branstad the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hatch or Branstad? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Hatch                37%     4%    81%    33%    30%    43%
Branstad             60     95     17     62     66     54
SOMEONE ELSE(VOL)     1      -      -      2      2      1
DK/NA                 3      1      2      3      2      3
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Hatch  Branstad
 
Mind made up         82%    85%    81%
Might change         18     15     19
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Jack Hatch favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            29%     9%    64%    23%    25%    33%
Unfavorable          26     41      3     27     34     18
Hvn't hrd enough     44     49     32     48     40     48
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Terry Branstad favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            59%    89%    22%    60%    66%    52%
Unfavorable          33      6     71     30     27     39
Hvn't hrd enough      7      5      7      8      6      7
REFUSED               1      -      1      2      1      2
 
 
14. Would you say that Terry Branstad - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  62%    90%    34%    60%    66%    58%
No                   32      6     58     34     27     36
DK/NA                 6      5      9      6      7      6
 
 
15. Would you say that Terry Branstad - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  64%    91%    30%    65%    68%    59%
No                   31      4     64     31     27     35
DK/NA                 5      5      6      5      5      5
 
 
16. Would you say that Terry Branstad - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  75%    94%    49%    78%    78%    72%
No                   22      4     46     21     19     25
DK/NA                 3      2      5      1      3      3
 
 
17. Would you say that Jack Hatch - is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  41%    22%    72%    37%    37%    45%
No                   25     37      6     28     30     20
DK/NA                34     42     22     35     33     35
 
 
18. Would you say that Jack Hatch - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  46%    23%    76%    43%    42%    49%
No                   28     45      8     29     32     25
DK/NA                27     32     17     28     26     27
 
 
19. Would you say that Jack Hatch - has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  40%    20%    69%    38%    35%    45%
No                   28     43      9     28     33     23
DK/NA                32     37     23     34     32     32 
 
 

Demographic Summary