November 3, 2014 - Ernst-Braley Dead Heat In Iowa Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Branstad Has 11-Point Lead Over Hatch Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley closes the gap with Republican State Sen. Joni Ernst, leaving the Iowa U.S. Senate race a 47 - 47 percent dead heat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Four percent remain undecided.

This compares to results of an October 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Sen. Ernst at 49 percent and Rep. Braley at 45 percent.

Today's results show independent voters divided 44 - 44 percent. Republicans back Ernst 95 - 2 percent. Democrats back Braley 94 - 5 percent.

Men and women still are locked in a reverse gender gap as women back the Democratic man 51 - 42 percent, while men back the Republican woman 52 - 44 percent.

Braley leads 56 - 36 percent among those who already have voted.

One day before Election Day, 95 percent of Iowa likely voters who name a Senate candidate say their mind is made up, while 5 percent say they might change their mind.

"Iowa's U.S. Senate race is a dead heat. The candidate who best gets his or her folks to the polls is going to win," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

Iowa likely voters remain divided on their feelings about the candidates:

* Ernst gets a 47 - 45 percent favorability;

* Braley gets a 43 - 45 percent likability score.

Governor's Race

State Sen. Jack Hatch, the Democratic challenger in the governor's race, inches up on long-time Republican Gov. Terry Branstad and now trails 52 - 41 percent among likely voters. This compares to Gov. Branstad's 56 - 37 percent likely voter lead in an October 29 Quinnipiac University poll.

Men, women, Republicans and independent voters all back the long-time governor, while Democrats back Hatch 82 - 12 percent. Hatch leads 52 - 37 percent among those who already have voted.

Only 5 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind by tomorrow, while 95 percent say their mind is made up,

Branstad gets a 57 - 35 percent favorability rating, compared to Hatch's 36 - 27 percent score, with 34 percent who still don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

From October 28 - November 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 778 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jack Hatch the Democrat and Terry Branstad the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hatch or Branstad? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Hatch                41%     2%    82%    37%    39%    42%    52%
Branstad             52     96     12     52     55     49     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      3      2      2      1
DK/NA                 6      1      5      9      4      7     10
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jack Hatch the Democrat and Terry Branstad the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hatch or Branstad? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Hatch                41      37      37      39      37
Branstad             52      56      55      54      60
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2       1       1
DK/NA                 6       5       5       6       3
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Hatch  Branstad
 
Mind made up         95%    94%    95%
Might change          5      6      5
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN......................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Mind made up         95      93      91      89      82
Might change          5       7       9      10      18
DK/NA                 -       -       -       -       -
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Jack Hatch favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            36%     5%    72%    30%    34%    38%    45%
Unfavorable          27     55      3     25     33     22     22
Hvn't hrd enough     34     38     23     41     31     36     29
REFUSED               3      2      2      4      2      4      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Jack Hatch favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            36      32      31      33      29
Unfavorable          27      29      31      28      26
Hvn't hrd enough     34      36      35      36      44
REFUSED               3       3       3       3       1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Terry Branstad favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            57%    95%    22%    60%    61%    53%    44%
Unfavorable          35      3     68     32     33     37     47
Hvn't hrd enough      4      1      6      5      4      5      3
REFUSED               4      1      4      4      2      5      6
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Terry Branstad favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 18
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            57      56      56      56      59
Unfavorable          35      34      35      34      33
Hvn't hrd enough      4       6       5       7       7
REFUSED               4       4       4       3       1
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Joni Ernst the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Braley or Ernst? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Braley               47%     2%    94%    44%    44%    51%    56%
Ernst                47     95      5     44     52     42     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      4      2      2      2
DK/NA                 4      2      1      8      3      5      5
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat, and Joni Ernst the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided): If you had to choose today, would you vote for Braley or Ernst? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Braley               47      45      46      45      44
Ernst                47      49      48      47      50
SOMEONE ELSE(VOL)     2       2       3       3       1
DK/NA                 4       5       4       5       4
 
 
4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4
                     Tot    Braley Ernst
 
Mind made up         95%    95%    94%
Might change          5      5      5
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN......................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Mind made up         95      91      93      89      84
Might change          5       9       7      10      15
DK/NA                 -       -       -       -       1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Bruce Braley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            43%     5%    86%    34%    39%    47%    48%
Unfavorable          45     87      9     44     49     42     41
Hvn't hrd enough      9      6      5     18     10      9      8
REFUSED               2      1      1      4      3      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bruce Braley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            43      40      43      42      38
Unfavorable          45      43      43      44      41
Hvn't hrd enough      9      14      11      13      20
REFUSED               2       2       3       1       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Joni Ernst favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Already
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Voted
 
Favorable            47%    94%     8%    42%    51%    42%    39%
Unfavorable          45      4     85     43     39     50     55
Hvn't hrd enough      6      2      5     12      6      6      5
REFUSED               2      1      2      3      3      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joni Ernst favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Nov 03  Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 15  Sep 17
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2014
 
Favorable            47      45      48      47      45
Unfavorable          45      43      42      41      39
Hvn't hrd enough      6      10       7      11      15
REFUSED               2       2       2       1       1
 
 

Demographic Summary