February 25, 2015 - Walker Has Strong Early Lead In Iowa GOP Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Conservative Base With Large Dose Of Tea Party Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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An early look at likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants shows a strong conservative tilt as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leads the pack with 25 percent, twice as high as his nearest rival, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Voters who identify as "very conservative" make up 45 percent of the caucus participants surveyed by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Tea Party supporters make up 32 percent of likely caucus-goers and Walker gets 33 percent of that Tea Party vote.

There is a horse race for second place, with 13 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, 11 percent each for Michigan physician Ben Carson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. No other candidate is above 5 percent and 9 percent are undecided.

Walker gets 13 percent when caucus participants name their second choice, with 11 percent for Bush and 9 percent each for former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Paul.

In a combination of first and second choices, Walker tops the list with 37 percent, with 21 percent for Paul, 20 percent for Bush, 19 percent for Carson and 18 percent for Huckabee.

"Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is taking the Republican political world by storm," said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Peter A. Brown. "He's gone from being unknown outside Wisconsin to the hot candidate, poised to become the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination. Front-runner status would make it easier for Gov. Walker to raise money and recruit top talent for his staff, but it also puts a target on his back.

"Perhaps most impressive about Walker's numbers is that 57 percent view him favorably to only 7 percent who view him unfavorably - a heck of a first impression."

"It's worth remembering that former Sen. Rick Santorum and former Gov. Mike Huckabee won the last two caucuses and neither came close to the nomination," Brown added.

Perhaps the biggest losers in Iowa are Bush and New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie as each gets 26 percent when likely Republican Caucus participants name a candidate they "would definitely not support."

Christie and Bush also are lowest in favorability, with mixed or negative scores:
  • 41 - 40 percent favorable for Bush;
  • 30 - 54 percent favorable for Christie;
  • 57 - 7 percent favorable for Walker;
  • 51 - 5 percent favorable for Carson;
  • 46 - 19 percent favorable for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas;
  • 63 - 24 percent favorable for Huckabee;
  • 41 - 9 percent favorable for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal;
  • 17 - 6 percent favorable for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, with 77 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion;
  • 58 - 22 percent for Paul;
  • 56 - 22 percent favorable for Perry;
  • 48 - 15 percent favorable for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida;
  • 54 - 23 percent favorable for former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
Walker gets 26 percent of men and 22 percent of women. Voters who say they are moderate or liberal go 21 percent for Paul and 17 percent for Bush.

By a 64 - 21 percent margin, likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants prefer a presidential candidate with experience as a governor or administrator, rather than experience as a Senator or member of Congress.

Only 8 percent of caucus participants are less likely to vote for Walker because he does not have a college degree, while 82 percent say that makes no difference in their vote. Because his father and brother were presidents, 25 percent say they are less likely to vote for Jeb Bush, but 63 percent say it makes no difference.

From February 16 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 623 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Scott Walker, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Paul, Perry, Rubio, Santorum, or Walker?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Bush                 10%     3%     6%     4%    11%    17%     8%    12%
Carson               11     11     16     13     11      7     11     11
Christie              4      1      2      1      6      8      5      3
Cruz                  5     10      4      8      2      2      6      3
Huckabee             11     10     16     14      8      8      8     14
Jindal                2      3      1      3      3      2      2      4
Kasich                -      -      -      -      1      -      1      -
Paul                 13     15      9      9     12     21     17      8
Perry                 3      2      3      2      3      4      3      3
Rubio                 4      2      5      4      2      5      4      3
Santorum              4      5      6      6      3      4      4      5
Walker               25     33     23     30     30     12     26     22
DK/NA                 9      6      9      6     10     10      6     13
 
 
2. (If candidate chosen q1) Who is your second choice: Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Paul, Perry, Rubio, Santorum, or Walker?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Bush                 11%     5%    11%     4%    17%    18%    11%    11%
Carson                8      9      9     11      8      5     10      5
Christie              7      3      3      4      6     14      7      7
Cruz                  7     13      9     10      5      2      8      5
Huckabee              8      7      9      8     10      7      7     10
Jindal                3      3      4      5      1      1      3      2
Kasich                2      2      1      1      2      3      2      1
Paul                  9     10      6      6     10     11      9      7
Perry                 9     11     11     15      3      3      8     10
Rubio                 6      5      3      4      9      6      6      5
Santorum              6      6      9      6      6      8      6      7
Walker               13     17     15     17     13      6     12     16
DK/NA                11     11     11     10      7     15     10     12
 
 
2a. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Scott Walker, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Paul, Perry, Rubio, Santorum, or Walker? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice ...? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%)
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 OR Q2 COMBINED..................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Bush                 20%     7%    15%     7%    27%    34%    19%    22%
Carson               19     19     24     23     18     12     20     16
Christie             11      3      4      4     11     20     12      9
Cruz                 11     22     13     17      7      4     13      7
Huckabee             18     16     25     22     17     15     15     23
Jindal                5      6      4      7      4      3      5      6
Kasich                2      2      2      2      3      2      3      1
Paul                 21     24     15     15     21     31     26     14
Perry                11     12     13     16      5      7     10     11
Rubio                 9      6      8      7     11     11     10      8
Santorum             10     10     14     11      8     12      9     11
Walker               37     49     36     46     42     17     37     36
DK/NA                18     17     19     15     16     23     15     23
 
 
3. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Bush                 26%    38%    27%    31%    23%    21%    31%    19%
Carson                3      4      3      3      3      5      4      2
Christie             26     34     27     35     20     16     23     29
Cruz                  8      3      5      5      4     17      9      5
Huckabee             10      8      5      8      8     14     11      8
Jindal                4      3      4      2      3      8      5      3
Kasich                3      2      2      2      2      5      3      2
Paul                  7      5      7      7      8      7      6     10
Perry                 7      6      3      3      7     13      8      5
Rubio                 5      5      4      5      3      8      6      4
Santorum              8      5      4      4      8     16     11      4
Walker                3      1      2      2      1      6      4      2
No/No one            29     24     32     25     34     28     31     24
DK/NA                14     12     15     14     14     13      9     21
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            41%    26%    40%    31%    48%    55%    37%    48%
Unfavorable          40     60     40     51     33     31     46     31
Hvn't hrd enough     17     12     18     16     19     14     15     21
REFUSED               1      2      2      2      1      1      2      -
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            51%    67%    61%    66%    47%    33%    57%    43%
Unfavorable           5      5      3      3      4      9      6      2
Hvn't hrd enough     43     28     36     30     49     57     37     54
REFUSED               -      -      -      -      -      1      -      1
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            30%    18%    27%    18%    36%    46%    32%    27%
Unfavorable          54     71     53     67     45     41     54     53
Hvn't hrd enough     15     10     19     14     18     12     13     19
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            46%    67%    55%    61%    42%    25%    53%    36%
Unfavorable          19      9     13     11     17     36     21     15
Hvn't hrd enough     34     24     31     27     41     37     25     48
REFUSED               1      -      1      -      -      1      -      1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            63%    65%    76%    71%    63%    50%    61%    65%
Unfavorable          24     25     15     21     25     29     26     22
Hvn't hrd enough     12     10      8      6     11     20     12     11
REFUSED               1      -      1      2      1      1      1      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Bobby Jindal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            41%    57%    41%    49%    40%    26%    44%    35%
Unfavorable           9      8      8      7      9     11     10      7
Hvn't hrd enough     50     35     49     43     51     61     45     56
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      -      1      -      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            17%    18%    17%    18%    15%    16%    18%    14%
Unfavorable           6      9      7      8      4      4      7      4
Hvn't hrd enough     77     72     75     73     80     80     74     82
REFUSED               -      1      1      1      -      -      -      -
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            58%    69%    61%    62%    57%    54%    64%    50%
Unfavorable          22     16     20     21     21     27     20     26
Hvn't hrd enough     18     12     16     15     21     18     15     23
REFUSED               1      2      3      2      -      1      1      1
 
 
15. Is your opinion of Rick Perry favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            56%    69%    63%    67%    49%    48%    60%    51%
Unfavorable          22     18     16     13     25     35     25     17
Hvn't hrd enough     21     12     20     18     26     17     15     30
REFUSED               1      2      1      2      -      -      1      2
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            48%    55%    54%    53%    51%    40%    53%    41%
Unfavorable          15     15     13     16     13     17     16     14
Hvn't hrd enough     34     27     30     28     35     39     29     41
REFUSED               2      3      2      3      1      3      1      3
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            54%    64%    62%    68%    47%    39%    56%    51%
Unfavorable          23     21     18     13     28     35     25     19
Hvn't hrd enough     22     15     19     18     25     24     18     29
REFUSED               1      -      1      -      -      2      1      1
 
 
18. Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            57%    74%    58%    66%    61%    40%    61%    50%
Unfavorable           7      6      5      4      3     18      9      4
Hvn't hrd enough     36     21     37     30     36     42     29     45
REFUSED               -      -      -      -      -      1      -      -
 
 
19. What is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for President?
                            Likely Rep
                            Caucus-goers
 
Economy(General)            12%
Jobs/Unemployment            1
 
Budget(General)              3
Government spending          1
Budget deficit               4
 
Taxes(General)               3
 
Terrorism                    4
National Security            6
 
Gun Issues/Policy/Control    2
Healthcare                   6
Abortion                     4
Immigration Issues          10
 
Foreign policy               9
 
Party/Political Philosophy   4
Bipartisan/Cross party lines
 /Coop to get things done    1
Electability                 1
Reduce size of government    2
Supporting Constitution      4
 
Caring about people          1
Leadership                   3
Moral/Family Values          5
Honesty/Trustworthiness      1
 
Other                        9
DK/NA                        4
 
 
27. Which of the following types of experience do you think better prepares someone to be president: A) Serving as a state's governor and gaining experience as the head of an administration, or B) Serving as a U.S. Senator or member of Congress and gaining experience in Washington and in foreign policy?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Governor             64%    72%    68%    69%    63%    62%    70%    56%
US Senator/Congress  21     12     20     17     22     26     18     27
DK/NA                14     16     12     13     15     13     12     17
 
 
28. Jeb Bush's father and his brother both served as president. Does that make you more likely to support Jeb Bush for the Republican nomination for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
More likely          11%     8%     9%     6%    14%    15%    11%    10%
Less likely          25     32     24     25     26     25     32     15
No difference        63     60     67     69     61     59     56     74
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      -      1      1      1
 
 
29. Ben Carson has never held political or governmental office. Does that make you more likely to support Ben Carson for the Republican nomination for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
More likely          17%    27%    21%    21%    15%    11%    22%    10%
Less likely          24     14     20     15     28     35     25     24
No difference        57     59     58     64     56     50     52     65
DK/NA                 2      1      1      1      1      4      2      1
 
 
30. Scott Walker does not have a college degree. Does that make you more likely to support Scott Walker for the Republican nomination for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
More likely           9%    17%    10%    13%     6%     4%    12%     4%
Less likely           8      2      8      4     11     11      9      7
No difference        82     80     82     82     82     84     79     87
DK/NA                 1      1      -      -      1      1      -      1
 
 
31. Rand Paul's father is former presidential candidate Ron Paul. Does that make you more likely to support Rand Paul for the Republican nomination for president, less likely, or does it make no difference?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
More likely          13%    16%    11%    11%    12%    16%    16%     8%
Less likely          12      8     13     16     10      7     11     13
No difference        74     76     75     73     78     77     72     78
DK/NA                 -      -      1      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
32. Is your opinion of Ron Paul, presidential candidate in 2008 and 2012, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            45%    55%    44%    45%    48%    42%    51%    36%
Unfavorable          31     26     34     32     31     32     31     33
Hvn't hrd enough     22     17     20     20     21     24     16     30
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      1      1      2      1
 
 
33. Is your opinion of George W. Bush, president from 2001 - 2009, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            80%    83%    85%    86%    80%    74%    77%    84%
Unfavorable          15     13     13     11     18     19     19      9
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      1      1      1      3      2      4
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      1      4      2      3
 
 
34. Is your opinion of George H. W. Bush, president from 1989 - 1993, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            79%    77%    80%    79%    78%    83%    78%    79%
Unfavorable          11     17     13     12     11      9     13      8
Hvn't hrd enough      9      5      5      7      9      6      7     11
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      2      2      2      1