May 7, 2015 - What Trouble? Clinton Has Early Lock On Iowa Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Sanders, Biden Are Only Dems Over 3% Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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With 60 percent of the vote among Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has an early lock on the first-in-the-nation presidential test, apparently undamaged by a nationwide flood of negative publicity, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 61 percent Clinton showing in Iowa in a February 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has 15 percent among Democrats, with 11 percent for Vice President Joseph Biden and 3 percent each for former U.S. Sen. James Webb of Virginia and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley. Another 7 percent are undecided.

Clinton and Biden each get 7 percent on the "no way" list when likely Democratic Caucus participants name a candidate they would "definitely not support." Sanders gets 6 percent.

Iowa Democrats say 76 - 17 percent that Clinton is honest and trustworthy, with Biden at 84 - 10 percent.

"One thing is obvious about Iowa Democratic Caucus participants: They are loyal as the day is long, at least when it comes to Hillary Clinton," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The former secretary of state has taken a major pounding in the news media and from her political opponents over her e-mail and family foundation. So far these criticisms have had absolutely no effect on her standing among Iowa Democrats.

"One other thing is slightly less obvious but interesting: By more than four-to-one, 76 - 17 percent, Iowa caucus-goers say Clinton is honest and trustworthy."

"When Quinnipiac University surveyed all Iowa voters last month, it found 49 - 43 percent they saw her as not honest and trustworthy. When it comes to analyzing Clinton's 2016 standing, it is important to keep straight who is talking," Brown added.

Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants have an 83 - 11 percent favorable opinion of Clinton. Her positions on the issues are "about right," 70 percent of Democrats say. Likely caucus participants also say 93 - 6 percent that she has strong leadership qualities and 83 - 13 percent that she cares about their needs and problems.

Biden gets a 79 - 15 percent favorability rating from Iowa Democrats. His positions on the issues are "about right," 75 percent say. Democrats say 76 - 19 percent that he has strong leadership qualities and 85 - 10 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

"Four in 10 Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants aren't convinced about Clinton, but there is no candidate who appears to have the political and financial resources at this time to successfully take her on," Brown said. "Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont finished second in the caucus-goer poll, but that may reflect the news he was going to make the race, much of which occurred while this poll was being taken.

"Vice President Joseph Biden also makes it into double-digits, barely. Absent a change of events, numbers like those from Democratic core voters in Iowa make a strong statement: There may be a lot of talk about what Bill and Hillary Clinton have done since he left the presidency, but nothing has penetrated her base of support."

In fact, former President Bill Clinton scores an 87 - 10 percent favorability rating from Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, compared to President Barack Obama's 86 - 11 percent favorability.

From April 25 - May 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 692 likely Iowa Democratic Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

3. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                11%     6%     9%    15%    17%     7%
Chafee                -      -      -      1      1      -
Clinton              60     61     66     58     49     68
O'Malley              3      2      3      4      3      3
Sanders              15     25     13     11     20     12
Webb                  3      1      3      4      4      2
DK/NA                 7      5      5      7      6      7
 
TREND: If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015
 
Biden                11       7
Chafee                -      na
Clinton              60      61
O'Malley              3       -
Sanders              15       5
Webb                  3       2
Warren               na      19
DK/NA                 7       6
 
 
3A. (If candidate chosen q3) Who is your second choice: Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q3...................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                33%    29%    40%    31%    25%    38%
Chafee                2      1      3      2      2      2
Clinton              20     23     16     21     26     17
O'Malley             11     13      9     10     13      9
Sanders              10     16     10      6     11     10
Webb                  3      -      3      4      5      2
DK/NA                22     17     18     27     19     24
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Who is your second choice: Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015
 
Biden                33      30
Chafee                2      na
Clinton              20      18
O'Malley             11       3
Sanders              10       9
Webb                  3       3
Warren               na      23
DK/NA                22      15
 
 
3B. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice...? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%)
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                     Q3 & Q3A COMBINED.....................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                42%    33%    47%    44%    41%    42%
Chafee                2      1      4      2      2      2
Clinton              79     83     81     77     73     84
O'Malley             13     14     12     13     15     12
Sanders              25     40     23     16     30     21
Webb                  6      2      6      8      8      4
DK/NA                27     22     22     32     24     29
 
TREND: If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice...? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%)
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015
 
Biden                42      35
Chafee                2      na
Clinton              79      78
O'Malley             13       3
Sanders              25      14
Webb                  6       5
Warren               na      40
DK/NA                27      20
 
 
4. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                 7%     4%     6%    10%     8%     6%
Chafee                4      6      5      3      4      5
Clinton               7      5      5     10     10      5
O'Malley              3      5      3      3      3      4
Sanders               6      5      9      6      4      8
Webb                  4      6      5      2      3      5
No/No one            59     62     62     56     65     56
DK/NA                20     20     17     20     13     24
 
TREND: Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015
 
Biden                 7      12
Chafee                4      na
Clinton               7       6
O'Malley              3       5
Sanders               6       3
Webb                  4       4
Warren               na       3
No/No-one            59      60
DK/NA                20      18
 
 
49. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            79%    86%    82%    72%    80%    78%
Unfavorable          15     11     13     19     14     15
Hvn't hrd enough      4      1      4      6      3      5
REFUSED               2      2      1      3      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015
 
Favorable            79      77
Unfavorable          15      15
Hvn't hrd enough      4       5
REFUSED               2       2
 
 
50. Is your opinion of Lincoln Chafee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable             8%    11%     9%     5%    10%     7%
Unfavorable           3      5      2      3      3      3
Hvn't hrd enough     88     82     89     91     86     90
REFUSED               1      2      -      -      1      -
 
 
51. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            83%    88%    88%    77%    80%    86%
Unfavorable          11      8      8     14     14      9
Hvn't hrd enough      4      1      2      7      4      4
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015
 
Favorable            83      90
Unfavorable          11       7
Hvn't hrd enough      4       1
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
52. Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            22%    32%    21%    18%    29%    17%
Unfavorable           3      1      6      2      2      3
Hvn't hrd enough     74     65     73     80     67     79
REFUSED               1      2      -      -      2      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015
 
Favorable            22      12
Unfavorable           3       3
Hvn't hrd enough     74      84
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
53. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            44%    68%    44%    29%    51%    39%
Unfavorable           6      3     10      6      5      7
Hvn't hrd enough     50     27     47     65     43     54
REFUSED               -      1      -      -      1      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015
 
Favorable            44      39
Unfavorable           6       3
Hvn't hrd enough     50      56
REFUSED               -       1
 
 
54. Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            20%    24%    21%    18%    25%    17%
Unfavorable           4      6      4      3      4      4
Hvn't hrd enough     76     70     74     79     70     80
REFUSED               -      -      1      -      1      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015
 
Favorable            20      16
Unfavorable           4       4
Hvn't hrd enough     76      79
REFUSED               -       1
 
 
55. In general, do you think - Hillary Clinton's positions on the issues are too liberal, not liberal enough, or about right?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Too liberal           5%     2%     2%     9%     5%     5%
Not liberal enough   19     38     17      8     25     15
About right          70     57     79     75     64     75
DK/NA                 5      3      2      8      6      5
 
 
56. In general, do you think - Joe Biden's positions on the issues are too liberal, not liberal enough, or about right?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Too liberal           5%     1%     2%     9%     5%     5%
Not liberal enough   10     21      6      6     12      9
About right          75     71     85     71     73     76
DK/NA                10      8      8     13     10     11
 
 
57. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Yes                  76%    82%    82%    70%    70%    80%
No                   17     14     11     23     23     14
DK/NA                 7      3      7      7      7      6
 
 
58. Would you say that - Joe Biden is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Yes                  84%    88%    90%    79%    87%    83%
No                   10      7      7     13     11     10
DK/NA                 6      5      3      8      3      7
 
 
59. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Yes                  93%    95%    97%    89%    91%    95%
No                    6      3      3     10      8      5
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      -
 
 
60. Would you say that - Joe Biden has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Yes                  76%    78%    85%    69%    80%    73%
No                   19     17     13     24     16     21
DK/NA                 5      5      2      7      4      6
 
 
61. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Yes                  83%    84%    88%    81%    80%    86%
No                   13     11      8     15     16     11
DK/NA                 4      4      3      4      5      3
 
 
62. Would you say that - Joe Biden cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Yes                  85%    86%    93%    80%    86%    84%
No                   10      9      3     14      9     11
DK/NA                 5      5      5      6      5      5
 
 
63. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            86%    96%    90%    78%    86%    87%
Unfavorable          11      3      9     19     11     12
Hvn't hrd enough      1      2      -      1      2      1
REFUSED               1      -      1      2      1      1
 
 
64. Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            87%    93%    87%    84%    90%    86%
Unfavorable          10      7     12     11      8     11
Hvn't hrd enough      1      -      -      3      1      2
REFUSED               1      -      -      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015
 
Favorable            87      92
Unfavorable          10       5
Hvn't hrd enough      1       2
REFUSED               1       1