July 2, 2015 - Sanders Gains On Clinton In Iowa Dem Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dems Say 4-1 Clinton Is Honest Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is gaining ground on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Iowa Democratic Caucus and now trails the front-runner 52 - 33 percent among likely Democratic Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Vice President Joseph Biden has 7 percent.

This compares to a 60 - 15 percent Clinton lead over Sanders in a May 7 survey of likely Democratic caucus-goers by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today's survey, former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley has 3 percent with one percent for former U.S. Sen. James Webb of Virginia. Another 5 percent are undecided.

Among Democrats 7 percent say they would definitely not support Biden, Webb or former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee and 6 percent say they would not support Clinton.

"Secretary Hillary Clinton should not be biting her fingernails over her situation in the Iowa caucus, but her lead is slipping and Sen. Bernie Sanders is making progress against her. Her 52 percent score among likely caucus-goers is still OK, but this is the first time she has been below 60 percent in Quinnipiac University's Iowa survey," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"But Sen. Sanders has more than doubled his showing and at 33 percent he certainly can't be ignored, especially with seven months until the actual voting. Iowa Democratic caucus-goers are generally considered more liberal than primary voters in most other states, a demographic that helps his insurgency against Secretary Clinton who is the choice of virtually the entire Democratic establishment."

"The good news for Clinton in this survey is that despite problematic scores among the overall electorate regarding her honesty and ability to understand the needs of average folks, none of those negative ratings are showing up among her Democratic base, to which she remains an iconic figure," Brown added.

"By overwhelming margins, likely Democratic caucus-goers themselves consider her to be honest; believe she understands the problems of average folks, and is a strong leader."

Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants who describe themselves as "very liberal" go 47 percent for Sanders and 43 percent for Clinton. Clinton is up 54 - 36 percent among voters describing themselves as "somewhat liberal," and 60 - 17 percent among self-described "moderate" or "conservative" Democratic caucus-goers.

Democratic caucus-goers give Clinton an 85 - 10 percent favorability rating. Voters say 75 - 18 percent she is honest and trustworthy, 95 - 4 percent that she has strong leadership qualities and 83 - 12 percent that she cares about their needs and problems.

Sanders gets a 66 - 8 percent favorability rating. Voters say 71 - 5 percent he is honest and trustworthy, 62 - 11 percent he has strong leadership qualities and 72 - 7 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

Iowa Democratic caucus-goers say 65 - 28 percent that if Clinton is elected she will follow new policies, rather than the same policies as President Barack Obama. Voters say 73 - 20 percent that she'd follow new policies, not the policies of former President Bill Clinton.

From June 20 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 761 likely Iowa Democratic Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

3. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                 7%     2%     6%    11%     8%     6%
Chafee                -      -      -      -      -      -
Clinton              52     43     54     60     46     56
O'Malley              3      4      2      3      3      2
Sanders              33     47     36     17     37     29
Webb                  1      -      -      1      1      -
DK/NA                 5      5      1      8      4      6
 
TREND: If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     Jul 02  May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015    2015
 
Biden                 7      11       7
Chafee                -       -      na
Clinton              52      60      61
O'Malley              3       3       -
Sanders              33      15       5
Webb                  1       3       2
Warren               na      na      19
DK/NA                 5       7       6
 
 
3A. (If candidate chosen q3) Who is your second choice: Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                23%    15%    26%    27%    18%    26%
Chafee                1      1      1      1      1      1
Clinton              26     36     30     17     31     23
O'Malley              7      6      6      8      9      5
Sanders              19     21     19     19     22     18
Webb                  3      2      5      2      3      2
No first choice       5      5      1      8      4      6
DK/NA                16     15     13     19     13     19
 
 
3B. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice...? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%)
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                     Q3 & Q3A COMBINED.....................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                30%    17%    33%    38%    26%    32%
Chafee                1      1      1      1      1      1
Clinton              78     78     84     76     77     79
O'Malley              9      9      8     11     12      7
Sanders              52     68     55     36     59     47
Webb                  3      2      5      4      4      2
 
TREND: If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders and Jim Webb, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? COMBINED WITH: Who is your second choice...? (Note: Percentages add to more than 100%)
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     Jul 02  May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015    2015
 
Biden                30      42      35
Chafee                1       2      na
Clinton              78      79      78
O'Malley              9      13       3
Sanders              52      25      14
Webb                  3       6       5
Warren               na      na      40
 
 
4. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Biden                 7%     9%     4%     7%     6%     8%
Chafee                7      8      8      6      8      7
Clinton               6      3      5      8      7      5
O'Malley              4      3      6      4      4      4
Sanders               4      2      5      5      4      3
Webb                  7      8      6      6      9      5
No/No one            59     58     63     57     61     57
DK/NA                16     16     16     17     13     19
 
TREND: Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     Jul 02  May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015    2015
 
Biden                 7       7      12
Chafee                7       4      na
Clinton               6       7       6
O'Malley              4       3       5
Sanders               4       6       3
Webb                  7       4       4
Warren               na      na       3
No/No-one            59      59      60
DK/NA                16      20      18
 
 
40. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            80%    81%    85%    76%    82%    79%
Unfavorable          12     11      8     13      9     13
Hvn't hrd enough      7      7      5      9      8      6
REFUSED               1      1      2      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     Jul 02  May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015    2015
 
Favorable            80      79      77
Unfavorable          12      15      15
Hvn't hrd enough      7       4       5
REFUSED               1       2       2
 
 
41. Is your opinion of Lincoln Chafee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            10%    10%    14%     9%    17%     6%
Unfavorable           8      8      8      7     12      5
Hvn't hrd enough     81     82     78     82     71     88
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      -      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Lincoln Chafee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     Jul 02  May 07
                     2015    2015
 
Favorable            10       8
Unfavorable           8       3
Hvn't hrd enough     81      88
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
42. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            85%    88%    88%    82%    83%    87%
Unfavorable          10      7     10     11     14      7
Hvn't hrd enough      3      3      1      5      3      3
REFUSED               2      2      -      2      -      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     Jul 02  May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015    2015
 
Favorable            85      83      90
Unfavorable          10      11       7
Hvn't hrd enough      3       4       1
REFUSED               2       2       1
 
 
43. Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            24%    25%    26%    23%    30%    19%
Unfavorable           5      3      8      6      6      4
Hvn't hrd enough     70     72     66     71     63     76
REFUSED               1      -      -      1      -      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     Jul 02  May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015    2015
 
Favorable            24      22      12
Unfavorable           5       3       3
Hvn't hrd enough     70      74      84
REFUSED               1       1       1
 
 
44. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            66%    82%    69%    49%    73%    60%
Unfavorable           8      2      7     13      9      7
Hvn't hrd enough     26     15     23     38     17     33
REFUSED               -      -      1      -      1      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     Jul 02  May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015    2015
 
Favorable            66      44      39
Unfavorable           8       6       3
Hvn't hrd enough     26      50      56
REFUSED               -       -       1
 
 
45. Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Favorable            18%    21%    19%    15%    23%    14%
Unfavorable           6      8      5      4     10      3
Hvn't hrd enough     76     70     76     80     67     82
REFUSED               -      -      -      1      1      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     Jul 02  May 07  Feb 26
                     2015    2015    2015
 
Favorable            18      20      16
Unfavorable           6       4       4
Hvn't hrd enough     76      76      79
REFUSED               -       -       1
 
 
46. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Yes                  75%    76%    77%    73%    75%    75%
No                   18     18     16     19     20     16
DK/NA                 7      5      8      8      5      8
 
TREND: Would you say that Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     Jul 02  May 07
                     2015    2015
 
Yes                  75      76
No                   18      17
DK/NA                 7       7
 
 
47. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Yes                  71%    81%    76%    59%    81%    64%
No                    5      1      5      8      6      4
DK/NA                24     18     19     33     13     32
 
 
48. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Yes                  95%    98%    96%    92%    92%    97%
No                    4      2      2      7      6      2
DK/NA                 1      1      2      1      2      -
 
TREND: Would you say that Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     Jul 02  May 07
                     2015    2015
 
Yes                  95      93
No                    4       6
DK/NA                 1       1
 
 
49. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Yes                  62%    76%    65%    47%    68%    57%
No                   11      7     11     15     15      8
DK/NA                27     18     24     38     17     35
 
 
50. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Yes                  83%    83%    83%    83%    81%    84%
No                   12     14     11     11     13     11
DK/NA                 5      3      6      5      5      5
 
TREND: Would you say that Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS
                     Jul 02  May 07
                     2015    2015
 
Yes                  83      83
No                   12      13
DK/NA                 5       4
 
 
51. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Yes                  72%    83%    73%    63%    79%    67%
No                    7      3     10     10      9      6
DK/NA                20     14     17     27     12     27
 
 
52. Which of these is the most important personal quality in deciding who to support for the Democratic nomination for president: is it someone who is honest and trustworthy or is it someone who has strong leadership qualities or is it someone who cares about the needs and problems of people like you?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Honest/Trustworthy   17%    17%    12%    20%    16%    18%
Strong leadership    30     23     34     33     28     31
Cares Needs/Problems 48     57     51     40     53     45
DK/NA                 5      3      3      7      3      6
 
 
60. If Hillary Clinton were elected president, do you think she'd mainly follow the same policies as Barack Obama or come up with new policies?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Same policies        28%    42%    25%    17%    35%    22%
New policies         65     54     65     75     58     70
DK/NA                 7      4     10      7      7      7
 
 
60 & 60A. If Hillary Clinton were elected president, do you think she'd mainly follow the same policies as Barack Obama or come up with new policies? COMBINED WITH: (If same/new policies q60) Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                     Q60 & Q60A COMBINED...................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Same policies/Good   22%    32%    21%    15%    28%    18%
Same policies/Bad     4      7      3      2      6      3
New policies/Good    56     44     58     65     50     59
New policies/Bad      2      1      2      3      2      2
DK/NA (Q60 or Q60A)  16     15     15     16     14     17
 
 
61. If Hillary Clinton were elected president, do you think she'd mainly follow the same policies as Bill Clinton or come up with new policies?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Same policies        20%    19%    21%    20%    29%    14%
New policies         73     76     73     72     64     80
DK/NA                 6      5      5      8      8      6
 
 
61 & 61A. If Hillary Clinton were elected president, do you think she'd mainly follow the same policies as Bill Clinton or come up with new policies? COMBINED WITH: (If same/new policies q61) Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS...............
                     Q61 & Q61A COMBINED...................                     
                     POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Same policies/Good   15%    14%    15%    16%    21%    10%
Same policies/Bad     4      5      4      3      5      3
New policies/Good    68     72     68     67     60     74
New policies/Bad      2      1      3      3      1      3
DK/NA (Q61 or Q61A)  11      8     10     12     12     10