December 14, 2015 - Trump, Cruz Leave Others In Dust In Iowa GOP Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Terrorism Replaces Economy As Top Voter Concern Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Donald Trump, with 28 percent, and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, with 27 percent, are running neck- and-neck among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with twice the support of U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, in third place with 14 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Dr. Ben Carson has 10 percent, with no other candidate above 5 percent.

This compares to the results of a November 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 25 percent, with 23 percent for Cruz, 18 percent for Carson and 13 percent for Rubio.

Today, 3 percent are undecided, but 53 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

Among Iowa Republican Caucus-goers, 30 percent say they "would definitely not support" Trump, with 23 percent who would not support former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

"The tie at the top of the Iowa Republican Caucus reflects a change in priorities among voters. The last time Quinnipiac University polled, the economy was the top issue. Now it is terrorism, a subject on which Donald Trump gets the highest rating of any of the candidates," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"With seven weeks to go until the voting, whether Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz or any of the other candidates prevails will likely be determined by which candidate has the best turnout operation - a subject about which everyone likes to speculate but is not measurable until caucus night February 1.

"One good sign for Sen. Cruz in his battle with Trump is that voters view him much more favorably than Trump, meaning that the Texas lawmaker may have a higher potential upside."

"Dr. Ben Carson, who was on top by eight percentage points in Quinnipiac University's October 22 survey, is in fourth place today, with just 10 percent of the vote," Brown added. "Cruz appears to be the main beneficiary of Dr. Carson's apparent collapse."

Terrorism is the most important issue for 30 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants in deciding their vote, as 21 percent list the economy and jobs; 13 percent say foreign policy and 11 percent cite immigration. Terrorism replaces the economy and jobs, listed as the top concern by 24 percent of GOP Caucus-goers November 24.

Trump can best handle terrorism, 33 percent of Republicans say, with 24 percent picking Cruz and 9 percent picking Rubio. Trump is also best handling the economy, 45 percent of GOP Caucus participants say, with 17 percent for Cruz and 8 percent for Rubio.

Cruz is best on foreign policy, 27 percent of Republicans say, with 19 percent for Trump and 13 percent for Rubio.

Trump is best on illegal immigration, 43 percent of GOP Caucus-goers say, with 21 percent for Cruz and 14 percent for Rubio.

Cruz has a 72 - 18 percent favorability rating, with Trump at 55 - 39 percent, Rubio at 71 - 18 percent and Carson at 74 - 20 percent.

Rubio would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election, 66 percent of likely Republican Caucus participants say, while 65 percent say Cruz has a good chance of winning and 64 percent say Trump has a good chance. Republicans are split 49 - 47 percent on whether Carson has a good chance of beating the Democratic nominee.

Homegrown jihadists pose a greater threat to the U.S., 50 percent of Republicans say, while 25 percent most fear terrorists among Syrian refugees and 17 percent most fear radicalized foreign visitors.

Republican Caucus-goers support 61 - 33 percent banning people on the U.S. terrorist watch list from purchasing guns.

From December 4 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 874 Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, Huckabee, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  5%     1%     4%     2%     4%    11%     4%     7%     5%     5%
Carson               10      9     11      9     13      8     11      8     10     10
Christie              3      1      2      -      3      8      3      3      5      2
Cruz                 27     45     34     40     25      8     27     26     25     28
Fiorina               3      5      2      3      2      6      4      3      5      3
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Graham                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              1      1      3      2      1      -      1      2      2      1
Kasich                1      -      1      -      1      2      1      1      2      -
Pataki                -      -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
Paul                  4      7      3      3      6      6      6      3      4      5
Rubio                14      2     12     10     15     20     13     16     20     11
Santorum              -      1      1      -      -      -      -      1      1      -
Trump                28     26     24     29     26     27     29     25     17     33
DK/NA                 3      2      3      2      4      2      2      4      3      3
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTIC Q51...................
                     Shares        Strong        Honest/       BestChance
                     Values        Leader        Trustworthy   OfWinning
 
Bush                  5%            3%            4%            3%
Carson               16             4            17            11
Christie              1             3             2             3
Cruz                 40            29            30            15
Fiorina               2             3             4             3
Gilmore               -             -             -             -
Graham                -             -             -             -
Huckabee              1             1             -             1
Kasich                1             1             -             2
Pataki                -             -             -             -
Paul                  9             2             8             4
Rubio                 6            12            13            25
Santorum              -             1             -             -
Trump                20            40            17            29
DK/NA                 -             2             4             3
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q20.........................
                     Economy/                                  Foreign
                     Jobs          Terrorism     Immigration   Policy
 
Bush                  7%            4%            1%            5%
Carson               10             8             4            13
Christie              6             2             -             2
Cruz                 21            32            31            28
Fiorina               4             4             1             3
Gilmore               -             -             -             -
Graham                -             -             -             -
Huckabee              1             -             3             4
Kasich                1             -             -             1
Pataki                -             1             -             -
Paul                  7             1             1             8
Rubio                16            12             9            24
Santorum              -             1             -             1
Trump                24            32            47             9
DK/NA                 2             3             4             1
 
 
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the caucus?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS........................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Rubio         Trump
 
Made up              46%           50%           32%           58%
Might change         53            49            67            41
DK/NA                 1             1             1             1
 
 
2. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                 23%    37%    22%    32%    21%    13%    27%    18%    20%    25%
Carson                8      5      4      8      7     10      9      8      8      9
Christie             15     25     16     19     14     10     19      9     11     17
Cruz                  7      2      4      4      5     16      7      8      8      7
Fiorina               9      9      9     11      8      7      9      9      6     11
Gilmore               9     12     10     12      8      5     10      8      9      8
Graham               14     19     14     18     12     10     15     13     14     14
Huckabee             10     11      6     10      9     10     11      8      9     10
Kasich               13     22     16     19     12      6     15     11     13     13
Pataki               11     14     12     15     10      8     13      9     12     11
Paul                 11     10     10     12     10     10     10     12     12     11
Rubio                 8      9      6      9      8      7      9      8      6      9
Santorum             10      8      6     10      9     10     10      9      8     11
Trump                30     22     27     20     28     47     29     32     41     24
No/No one            25     25     31     28     28     18     27     23     24     26
DK/NA                 5      6      6      5      7      3      4      6      4      6
 
 
5. Compared to past presidential caucuses in Iowa, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about attending a presidential caucus in February 2016; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
More                 47%    54%    52%    59%    38%    40%    49%    44%    44%    49%
Less                  9      4      5      4     10     15      9      9     12      7
About the same       43     40     42     35     52     45     41     46     44     43
DK/NA                 1      2      2      2      -      1      1      1      -      1
 
 
5A. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Attended previous    73%    81%    76%    76%    75%    66%    74%    71%    82%    68%
First caucus         27     19     23     24     25     33     26     29     18     32
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
Q6-19. Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable - Unfavorable).
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS...........
                                   Hvn't
                     Fav    Unfav  hrdEn  REF    NetFav
Carson               74     20      5      1     54
Cruz                 72     18      9      1     54
Rubio                71     18     10      2     53
Fiorina              59     22     18      1     37
Huckabee             59     28     11      2     31
Trump                55     39      2      3     16
Santorum             46     33     21      1     13
Christie             49     40     10      2      9
Paul                 43     42     14      2      1
Bush                 41     51      7      2    -10
Kasich               24     38     37      1    -14
Gilmore               2     18     79      1    -16
Pataki                8     33     58      1    -25
Graham               16     49     34      1    -33
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            41%    26%    40%    31%    42%    57%    38%    45%    49%    37%
Unfavorable          51     65     50     62     49     35     55     45     43     54
Hvn't hrd enough      7      6      9      6      7      7      5      9      7      7
REFUSED               2      3      1      1      2      1      2      1      1      2
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            74%    88%    82%    82%    76%    60%    75%    72%    73%    74%
Unfavorable          20      7     12     14     19     31     18     23     21     20
Hvn't hrd enough      5      4      5      4      5      8      6      4      6      5
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      -      1      1      -      1      1
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            49%    40%    46%    43%    48%    55%    48%    49%    58%    43%
Unfavorable          40     53     42     48     38     32     42     37     34     43
Hvn't hrd enough     10      5     10      7     11     13      9     11      7     11
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      1      1      3      1      2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            72%    91%    81%    86%    74%    50%    75%    68%    72%    72%
Unfavorable          18      6     13      9     13     36     15     22     22     16
Hvn't hrd enough      9      2      6      5     10     13      9     10      6     11
REFUSED               1      1      -      -      2      1      1      1      -      1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            59%    63%    60%    62%    59%    54%    59%    58%    67%    55%
Unfavorable          22     24     23     24     20     22     23     21     16     25
Hvn't hrd enough     18     12     17     13     19     24     16     20     17     18
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      1      2      1      -      2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Jim Gilmore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable             2%     3%     2%     3%     1%     1%     3%     1%     3%     1%
Unfavorable          18     19     19     22     16     13     20     15     20     16
Hvn't hrd enough     79     76     77     73     82     85     77     83     77     81
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      -      1      1      1      -      1
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Lindsey Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            16%    15%    18%    18%    13%    18%    17%    15%    21%    14%
Unfavorable          49     61     49     57     45     43     53     43     48     49
Hvn't hrd enough     34     23     33     25     40     37     27     42     31     35
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      2      2      2      1      -      2
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            59%    72%    74%    71%    58%    43%    58%    60%    59%    59%
Unfavorable          28     23     17     22     27     38     29     27     31     26
Hvn't hrd enough     11      4      9      6     13     17     11     12      8     13
REFUSED               2      2      1      -      3      2      2      1      1      2
 
 
14. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            24%    24%    20%    22%    21%    29%    25%    22%    30%    20%
Unfavorable          38     47     42     48     37     23     40     36     35     40
Hvn't hrd enough     37     28     38     29     41     46     34     42     34     39
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      2      1      1      1      1
 
 
15. Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable             8%     7%     7%     7%     7%     9%     8%     7%    10%     6%
Unfavorable          33     41     37     44     30     23     37     29     33     34
Hvn't hrd enough     58     51     55     48     62     66     54     63     56     59
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      2      2      1      1      1
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            43%    63%    46%    50%    44%    32%    51%    32%    43%    43%
Unfavorable          42     28     40     38     39     49     36     50     45     40
Hvn't hrd enough     14      8     13     11     16     15     12     17     10     16
REFUSED               2      1      2      1      1      3      2      1      2      1
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            71%    69%    72%    70%    72%    71%    69%    73%    76%    68%
Unfavorable          18     22     15     21     15     16     20     15     13     21
Hvn't hrd enough     10      8     11      7     13     11     10     10     11      9
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      1      1      1      2      1      2
 
 
18. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            46%    60%    56%    59%    42%    32%    46%    45%    49%    44%
Unfavorable          33     22     25     26     34     42     35     29     35     31
Hvn't hrd enough     21     16     18     15     24     24     18     25     15     24
REFUSED               1      2      1      1      -      2      1      1      1      1
 
 
19. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            55%    62%    56%    64%    55%    42%    59%    51%    44%    61%
Unfavorable          39     30     39     30     39     54     37     41     50     33
Hvn't hrd enough      2      4      4      2      3      2      2      3      4      2
REFUSED               3      5      2      3      3      2      2      5      2      4
 
 
20. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, taxes, or gun policy?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy and jobs     21%    16%    14%    14%    24%    29%    23%    18%    26%    18%
Terrorism            30     34     32     34     28     24     24     38     25     32
Immigration          11     15     12     13     13      4     11     10      8     12
Federal deficit       8      8      7      7      9      9     11      4      9      7
Health care           3      2      3      3      4      3      3      4      3      3
Foreign policy       13     11     15     13     13     13     12     13     14     12
Climate change        -      -      -      -      -      1      -      -      1      -
Race relations        1      -      -      -      -      2      1      -      -      1
Abortion              4      5      6      7      3      1      3      4      5      3
Taxes                 2      2      2      2      2      3      2      2      4      1
Gun policy            6      6      6      6      5      6      9      2      2      7
DK/NA                 3      1      3      2      1      6      2      5      3      3
 
 
21. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - the economy?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  6%     1%     6%     2%     7%    13%     6%     7%     7%     6%
Carson                4      4      5      4      5      3      5      3      5      3
Christie              2      -      2      -      2      5      1      4      3      2
Cruz                 17     27     20     24     18      6     16     18     18     16
Fiorina               5      3      5      5      5      6      5      6      7      4
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Graham                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              -      -      1      1      -      1      1      -      1      -
Kasich                2      2      1      1      1      4      2      3      4      1
Pataki                -      -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
Paul                  5      7      4      4      4      7      6      3      5      5
Rubio                 8      2      6      6      8     11      7      9     10      7
Santorum              1      -      -      -      1      -      -      1      -      1
Trump                45     51     44     48     43     39     48     40     35     50
DK/NA                 5      3      6      4      5      6      4      6      4      5
 
 
22. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - foreign policy?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                 11%     6%    10%     7%    10%    19%    10%    12%    12%    11%
Carson                4      2      5      2      6      4      4      4      5      3
Christie              3      1      2      2      4      4      2      4      5      2
Cruz                 27     45     36     39     29     11     32     21     25     29
Fiorina               3      5      3      3      3      4      4      2      3      3
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Graham                1      1      -      2      1      1      2      1      3      1
Huckabee              1      2      3      1      2      2      1      2      2      1
Kasich                2      2      1      1      -      4      1      2      3      1
Pataki                -      -      -      -      -      1      -      -      1      -
Paul                  4      6      4      3      5      6      5      3      5      4
Rubio                13      8     14     12     14     14     12     14     17     11
Santorum              1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
Trump                19     16     15     24     16     16     20     19     12     23
DK/NA                 9      4      7      4      9     13      6     12      8      9
 
 
23. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - illegal immigration?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  4%     2%     3%     2%     2%    10%     3%     6%     5%     4%
Carson                4      1      3      2      5      5      5      3      2      5
Christie              2      -      1      -      1      4      2      2      3      1
Cruz                 21     32     26     27     22      9     23     18     26     18
Fiorina               1      1      1      1      1      1      2      1      1      2
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Graham                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              -      -      1      1      -      -      1      -      1      -
Kasich                -      -      -      -      -      1      -      1      1      -
Pataki                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Paul                  3      7      3      2      4      3      4      2      2      3
Rubio                14      7     13      8     19     20     13     17     21     11
Santorum              -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Trump                43     46     41     51     38     36     44     42     29     50
DK/NA                 7      3      8      5      7     10      6      9      8      7
 
 
24. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  3%     1%     2%     1%     3%     6%     4%     2%     4%     3%
Carson               14     18     17     14     19     10     16     12     15     14
Christie              2      -      1      1      1      6      2      2      4      1
Cruz                 23     39     32     37     17      8     25     19     22     23
Fiorina               4      3      3      3      4      5      3      4      6      3
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Graham                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              7      8     11      8      7      7      7      7      8      6
Kasich                1      -      1      -      1      3      1      1      3      -
Pataki                -      -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
Paul                  4      7      2      3      4      6      5      3      4      4
Rubio                10      4      7      6     13     12      9     11     11      9
Santorum              2      2      2      2      2      3      1      4      4      1
Trump                15     10     12     17     13     13     15     15      9     18
DK/NA                15      8     10      9     16     23     12     20     11     17
 
 
25. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - taxes?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  7%     2%     7%     4%     6%    15%     4%    12%     8%     7%
Carson                6      6      7      5      7      4      6      5      7      5
Christie              3      -      3      3      2      5      2      4      4      2
Cruz                 18     27     23     26     21      4     20     15     21     16
Fiorina               5      6      4      4      3      8      4      6      6      4
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Graham                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              1      2      3      2      1      1      1      2      2      1
Kasich                2      2      2      1      2      4      2      2      4      1
Pataki                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Paul                  6      8      5      5      8      6      8      3      6      6
Rubio                 8      4      6      5      8     12      8      8     11      6
Santorum              -      1      1      1      -      -      1      -      -      -
Trump                33     38     30     38     32     29     37     28     23     39
DK/NA                10      4     11      7     10     12      7     15      8     11
 
 
26. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - terrorism?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  8%     4%     7%     3%     8%    16%     8%     9%     9%     8%
Carson                3      4      4      3      4      2      3      4      3      3
Christie              5      2      2      3      5      7      5      4      7      4
Cruz                 24     41     33     34     27      8     26     22     25     24
Fiorina               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      2      1
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Graham                1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      2      -
Huckabee              -      -      1      1      -      -      -      1      1      -
Kasich                1      -      -      -      -      2      -      1      2      -
Pataki                -      -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
Paul                  4      5      2      2      5      5      4      3      4      3
Rubio                 9      5     10      8      7     14      8     10     12      8
Santorum              -      1      1      -      1      -      -      1      -      -
Trump                33     33     29     38     32     27     35     31     23     39
DK/NA                 9      3      8      5      8     16      7     11      9      9
 
 
27. Would you say that - Marco Rubio is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  75%    70%    75%    74%    75%    78%    77%    73%    78%    74%
No                   18     23     20     20     18     17     19     18     17     19
DK/NA                 6      6      6      6      7      5      5      9      5      7
 
 
28. Would you say that - Ben Carson is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  85%    91%    90%    89%    86%    79%    88%    80%    88%    83%
No                   13      6      7      9     13     20     11     17     11     15
DK/NA                 2      3      3      2      1      2      2      3      2      2
 
 
29. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  53%    59%    49%    58%    55%    44%    58%    47%    43%    59%
No                   42     37     47     38     40     53     40     45     52     37
DK/NA                 4      4      4      4      5      3      2      8      5      4
 
 
30. Would you say that - Ted Cruz is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  82%    91%    87%    86%    85%    74%    84%    79%    84%    81%
No                   13      7      8      8     11     21     13     12     11     13
DK/NA                 5      2      5      6      4      5      3      9      5      6
 
 
31. Would you say that - Marco Rubio has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  71%    64%    70%    67%    74%    76%    71%    72%    76%    69%
No                   23     29     24     27     19     21     25     20     19     25
DK/NA                 6      8      7      6      7      4      4      8      5      6
 
 
32. Would you say that - Ben Carson has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  55%    66%    65%    62%    55%    45%    51%    61%    54%    56%
No                   40     29     32     34     40     50     44     35     40     41
DK/NA                 4      5      4      4      4      5      4      4      6      4
 
 
33. Would you say that - Donald Trump has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  76%    85%    79%    81%    83%    61%    78%    73%    71%    78%
No                   23     15     21     18     17     38     21     27     28     21
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      -      1      1      -      1      -
 
 
34. Would you say that - Ted Cruz has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  79%    90%    84%    86%    83%    68%    81%    77%    78%    80%
No                   16      9     12     10     12     28     16     16     18     15
DK/NA                 4      2      4      4      5      4      3      6      4      5
 
 
35. Would you say that - Marco Rubio cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  78%    74%    76%    76%    80%    81%    76%    81%    82%    76%
No                   16     20     17     19     13     14     19     11     13     17
DK/NA                 6      6      7      6      7      6      5      8      6      6
 
 
36. Would you say that - Ben Carson cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  83%    92%    87%    89%    86%    75%    86%    80%    87%    82%
No                   14      7     11     10     12     22     13     16     10     16
DK/NA                 2      1      3      1      2      4      2      4      3      2
 
 
37. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  58%    64%    57%    64%    60%    46%    61%    54%    53%    61%
No                   39     35     40     33     37     51     36     43     44     36
DK/NA                 3      2      4      3      3      3      2      3      3      3
 
 
38. Would you say that - Ted Cruz cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  82%    92%    89%    92%    81%    69%    83%    81%    81%    82%
No                   14      6      8      6     13     25     14     14     15     13
DK/NA                 4      2      3      2      6      6      4      6      4      5
 
 
39. Would you say that - Marco Rubio has the right kind of experience to be President or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  69%    70%    71%    70%    68%    66%    69%    68%    73%    66%
No                   27     24     23     24     27     30     28     25     22     29
DK/NA                 5      6      6      6      5      4      3      8      5      5
 
 
40. Would you say that - Ben Carson has the right kind of experience to be President or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  45%    58%    52%    48%    49%    37%    47%    42%    40%    48%
No                   52     41     45     50     48     60     51     53     56     50
DK/NA                 3      1      3      2      4      3      1      5      4      2
 
 
41. Would you say that - Donald Trump has the right kind of experience to be President or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  55%    64%    56%    63%    55%    43%    58%    51%    46%    60%
No                   43     34     42     35     43     56     41     46     52     38
DK/NA                 2      3      2      2      2      1      1      3      2      2
 
 
42. Would you say that - Ted Cruz has the right kind of experience to be President or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  78%    93%    84%    87%    77%    66%    82%    73%    78%    78%
No                   19      5     13     10     18     31     16     22     19     19
DK/NA                 3      1      3      2      5      3      2      5      4      3
 
 
43. Would you say that - Marco Rubio shares your values or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  71%    72%    75%    73%    71%    70%    71%    72%    77%    68%
No                   21     22     18     21     21     22     23     19     17     24
DK/NA                 7      6      7      6      7      8      6      9      7      8
 
 
44. Would you say that - Ben Carson shares your values or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  80%    88%    91%    87%    80%    70%    81%    79%    82%    79%
No                   17      9      8     11     16     26     16     18     15     18
DK/NA                 3      3      1      1      3      4      3      3      3      3
 
 
45. Would you say that - Donald Trump shares your values or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  50%    56%    46%    57%    48%    43%    55%    44%    38%    57%
No                   47     40     50     40     48     56     44     52     58     41
DK/NA                 3      3      4      3      4      1      1      5      4      2
 
 
46. Would you say that - Ted Cruz shares your values or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  76%    92%    87%    88%    78%    56%    78%    72%    77%    75%
No                   19      5      9      8     16     38     18     19     19     18
DK/NA                 5      3      4      4      6      6      3      8      4      6
 
 
47. Would you say that - Marco Rubio would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  66%    70%    70%    66%    66%    65%    68%    63%    74%    62%
No                   29     25     25     29     29     31     28     31     23     33
DK/NA                 5      5      5      5      5      4      4      6      3      6
 
 
48. Would you say that - Ben Carson would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  49%    60%    58%    55%    50%    42%    51%    46%    45%    51%
No                   47     36     38     42     46     56     46     49     52     45
DK/NA                 4      4      4      4      4      3      3      5      4      4
 
 
49. Would you say that - Donald Trump would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  64%    72%    70%    74%    64%    50%    64%    65%    53%    70%
No                   33     27     27     24     33     48     34     32     45     27
DK/NA                 2      1      3      2      3      1      2      3      2      2
 
 
50. Would you say that - Ted Cruz would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  65%    82%    79%    80%    67%    42%    67%    62%    60%    68%
No                   31     16     19     18     27     53     29     33     36     28
DK/NA                 4      2      2      2      6      5      3      5      4      4
 
 
51. Thinking about the Republican nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Shares values        18%    21%    22%    23%    16%    15%    20%    16%    20%    17%
Cares needs/problems  6      4      4      3      5     11      6      6      4      7
Strong leadership    30     28     26     32     27     27     30     30     31     29
Honest/trustworthy   22     30     23     21     27     17     21     23     16     25
Right experience      6      4      6      4      5      9      5      7      7      5
Best chance/winning  16     10     17     15     16     19     16     16     19     14
DK/NA                 3      2      3      3      3      2      3      3      2      3
 
 
52. Generally speaking, what type of candidate makes the best president someone who has served as a Governor of a state, someone who has served in the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives, or someone who has never held an elected office?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Governor             39%    37%    41%    36%    45%    36%    40%    37%    47%    35%
U.S. Senate/House    20     21     18     17     19     26     19     22     21     19
Never held office    29     28     29     34     24     30     32     26     22     33
DK/NA                12     15     12     14     12      9     10     15     10     13
 
 
77. Do you support or oppose accepting Syrian refugees into the U.S.?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              15%     5%    11%     5%    15%    31%    15%    15%    26%    10%
Oppose               81     94     85     93     80     63     81     79     69     87
DK/NA                 4      1      4      2      4      6      3      6      5      4
 
 
78. Which do you think poses a greater terrorist threat to the U.S.: terrorists hiding among Syrian refugees, radicalized foreign visitors or so-called "homegrown jihadists"?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Terrorist refugees   25%    35%    28%    34%    24%    13%    29%    20%    21%    28%
Radicalized visitors 17     10     15     18     13     19     16     18     18     16
Homegrown jihadists  50     44     52     41     57     57     49     51     56     47
DK/NA                 8     10      5      7      5     11      6     11      5      9
 
 
79. Do you support or oppose changing current gun laws to ban those on the U.S. government's terrorist watch list from purchasing guns?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              61%    50%    58%    53%    66%    68%    56%    67%    66%    58%
Oppose               33     42     34     38     30     30     38     27     29     35
DK/NA                 6      8      8      9      4      3      6      6      5      6
 
 
80. Would you support or oppose the U.S. sending ground troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              72%    75%    77%    80%    67%    66%    72%    71%    71%    72%
Oppose               24     22     20     17     30     25     23     25     23     24
DK/NA                 5      2      3      3      3      9      5      4      5      5
 
 
81. Do you think the United States and its allies are winning or losing the fight against ISIS?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Winning               9%     4%     9%     5%     9%    16%    11%     7%    11%     9%
Losing               84     93     87     91     86     74     84     86     82     86
DK/NA                 6      3      4      4      5     10      6      7      8      6
 
 

Sample and Methodology detail