January 11, 2016 - Trump, Cruz Running Away With Iowa GOP Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Cruz Way Ahead On Favorability, Character Traits Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
PDF format
Additional Trend Information

Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are locking in their lead among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with Trump at 31 percent and Cruz at 29 percent, while U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida trails with 15 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Dr. Ben Carson has 7 percent, with no other candidate above New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie's 4 percent.

This compares to the results of a December 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 28 percent, with 27 percent for Cruz, 14 percent for Rubio and 10 percent for Carson.

Today, 5 percent are undecided, but 46 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

Trump tops Cruz almost 4-1 on the negative list as 26 percent of Iowa Republican Caucus-goers say they "would definitely not support" Trump, with 7 percent who would not support Cruz.

The biggest loser today is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who gets only 3 percent support from Republicans, while 26 percent say they "would definitely not support" him.

"The Iowa Republican Caucuses are tight as a tick entering the final two weeks of the campaign. Voters like Sen. Ted Cruz better than Donald Trump and give him much higher scores for honesty, empathy, experience and for sharing their values," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"But they see the New York businessman as better able to handle some key issues. Trump is way ahead on handling the economy and terrorism."

"The imbalance in perceived personal qualities may give Cruz a higher ceiling, a key metric entering the home stretch. Only 7 percent of Republicans say they could never vote for Cruz, while 26 percent say no way to Trump," Brown added.

The economy and jobs is the most important issue for 27 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants in deciding their vote, as 18 percent list terrorism; 16 percent say foreign policy. Another 10 percent cite the federal deficit and 8 percent list immigration.

This reverses the results of the December 14 survey, in which 30 percent listed terrorism as the most important issue, with 21 percent focused on the economy and jobs.

Trump can best handle the economy, 46 percent of Republicans say, with 16 percent picking Cruz and 8 percent picking Rubio. Trump is also best handling terrorism, 36 percent of GOP Caucus participants say, with 26 percent for Cruz and 12 percent for Rubio.

Cruz is best on foreign policy, 27 percent of Republicans say, with 24 percent for Trump and 18 percent for Rubio. Trump is best on illegal immigration, 46 percent of GOP Caucus- goers say, with 22 percent for Cruz and 15 percent for Rubio.

Cruz has a 75 - 17 percent favorability rating, with Trump at 61 - 34 percent. Republican Caucus participants give Cruz better grades than Trump on most character issues:
  • 81 - 13 percent that Cruz is honest and trustworthy, compared to 63 - 32 percent for Trump;
  • 81 - 17 percent that Trump has strong leadership qualities, with Cruz at 78 - 16 percent;
  • 81 - 14 percent that Cruz cares about their needs and problems, with 64 - 29 percent for Trump;
  • 76 - 18 percent that Cruz has the right kind of experience to be president, with Trump at 54 - 40 percent;
  • 75 - 17 percent that Cruz shares their values, with 53 - 41 percent for Trump.
Cruz would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election, 69 percent of likely Republican Caucus participants say, while 65 percent say Trump has a good chance of winning.

From January 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 602 Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  3%     1%     2%     1%     4%     4%     2%     4%     1%     4%
Carson                7      3      8      8      8      5      7      7      8      6
Christie              4      -      3      2      4      7      3      4      5      3
Cruz                 29     49     34     44     28      7     29     28     30     27
Fiorina               1      2      1      1      2      1      1      1      2      1
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              3      4      5      4      -      4      2      3      3      3
Kasich                2      -      1      1      -      5      1      2      3      1
Paul                  2      2      1      1      2      4      3      1      3      2
Rubio                15      5     13     11     15     21     15     14     17     13
Santorum              1      -      1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1
Trump                31     27     27     26     31     37     33     26     23     35
DK/NA                 5      5      5      3      7      4      2      8      5      4
 
                                                 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q15...........
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME         Economy/                    Foreign
                     <50K   50-100 >100K         Jobs          Terrorism     Policy
                                                 
Bush                  6%     3%     2%            1%            2%            6%
Carson                6      8      7             5             7            11
Christie              -      3      9             4             4            10
Cruz                 26     38     22            26            30            24
Fiorina               2      1      -             2             1             -
Gilmore               -      -      -             -             -             -
Huckabee              6      1      1             -             2             -
Kasich                1      2      2             2             -             4
Paul                  4      2      1             4             -             -
Rubio                10     10     27            19            16            23
Santorum              1      -      1             1             -             1
Trump                37     29     26            32            33            22
DK/NA                 3      4      2             4             5             -
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTIC Q34................... CAUCUS ATTENDQ5
                     Shares        Strong        Honest/       BestChance First  Previous
                     Values        Leader        Trustworthy   OfWinning  Caucus Caucus
                                                                             
Bush                  2%            4%            1%            1%            3%     3%
Carson               11             4             9             6             9      6
Christie              -             5             4             6             3      4
Cruz                 39            23            40            28            26     29
Fiorina               2             1             1             1             1      1
Gilmore               -             -             -             -             -      -
Huckabee              4             1             2             1             2      3
Kasich                1             1             -             2             -      2
Paul                  5             -             4             2             2      2
Rubio                14            13            12            26            18     13
Santorum              -             1             1             1             -      1
Trump                20            40            23            25            34     29
DK/NA                 1             8             3             2             1      6
 
 
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the caucus?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS.............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot           Cruz          Trump
 
Made up              52%           55%           61%
Might change         46            42            38
DK/NA                 1             2             1
 
 
2. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                 26%    41%    24%    29%    29%    17%    28%    23%    27%    25%
Carson                9      7      5      7      9     12      8     11     12      8
Christie             15     23     17     17     19      9     16     14     16     15
Cruz                  7      3      3      2      5     16      6      9     12      5
Fiorina              11     12     11      9     15      9     11     10     13      9
Gilmore              11     14     11     11     15      6     12      9     17      7
Huckabee             10     12      7      9     10     11     10      9     12      9
Kasich               14     20     20     18     16      7     15     13     18     12
Paul                 13     16     15     15     15      8     12     15     17     10
Rubio                 9     12      8      9      9     10     10      9     11      9
Santorum             10     12      9      9     12      9      9     11     14      8
Trump                26     19     26     27     19     34     24     29     31     24
No/No one            27     32     29     25     32     27     30     23     23     30
DK/NA                 8      5     11      9      9      3      6     11      6      8
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Bush                 28%    27%    23%
Carson                7      8     13
Christie             14     19     14
Cruz                  7      6     11
Fiorina               8     13     11
Gilmore               5     14     13
Huckabee              6     11     13
Kasich               11     17     15
Paul                 11     14     12
Rubio                10      8     12
Santorum              6     13      9
Trump                26     25     29
No/No one            29     28     28
DK/NA                 7      7      3
 
 
4. Compared to past presidential caucuses in Iowa, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about attending this year's presidential caucus on February first; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
More                 52%    69%    59%    61%    50%    44%    53%    50%    42%    57%
Less                  5      2      5      5      3      9      3      8      7      4
About the same       40     26     35     31     46     44     40     41     50     35
DK/NA                 3      3      1      3      1      3      4      1      2      3
 
                                                 CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1...
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME         CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     <50K   50-100 >100K         Cruz          Trump
                                                 
More                 56%    54%    44%           57%           66%
Less                  5      4      8             2             -
About the same       36     41     42            40            32
DK/NA                 2      1      6             1             1
 
 
5. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Attended previous    70%    81%    69%    75%    67%    65%    67%    75%    81%    63%
First caucus         30     19     31     25     33     35     33     25     19     36
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      1      -      -      1
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Attended previous    66%    73%    70%
First caucus         34     27     30
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
Q6-14. Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable - Unfavorable).
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS...........
                                   Hvn't
                     Fav    Unfav  hrdEn  REF    NetFav
 
Cruz                 75     17      7      -     58            
Carson               67     22      9      2     45            
Rubio                67     22      8      2     45              
Fiorina              52     21     26      -     31        
Trump                61     34      2      2     27              
Christie             44     38     16      2      6         
Paul                 40     39     18      2      1             
Kasich               23     34     42      1     -11         
Bush                 33     56      9      2     -23             
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            33%    21%    31%    28%    38%    36%    28%    42%    42%    29%
Unfavorable          56     72     53     63     55     48     61     48     52     58
Hvn't hrd enough      9      5     14      7      6     16      9      9      5     11
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      1      -      2      1      1      2
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Favorable            38%    25%    34%
Unfavorable          52     65     55
Hvn't hrd enough     10      9     10
REFUSED               -      1      1
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            67%    87%    77%    79%    67%    53%    67%    66%    70%    65%
Unfavorable          22      9     13     15     21     33     23     21     22     22
Hvn't hrd enough      9      3      9      5      9     14      9     11      6     11
REFUSED               2      1      -      2      3      1      1      2      1      2
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Favorable            65%    70%    65%
Unfavorable          20     23     24
Hvn't hrd enough     13      5     10
REFUSED               2      3      1
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            44%    40%    41%    38%    44%    52%    39%    51%    53%    39%
Unfavorable          38     48     37     43     38     32     44     29     34     40
Hvn't hrd enough     16      9     21     17     17     15     14     19     13     19
REFUSED               2      3      1      2      1      1      2      1      1      2
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Favorable            37%    42%    53%
Unfavorable          38     44     35
Hvn't hrd enough     24     12     11
REFUSED               1      2      -
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            75%    91%    81%    89%    80%    49%    81%    65%    74%    76%
Unfavorable          17      6     10      7     14     37     13     25     20     16
Hvn't hrd enough      7      3      9      3      5     13      6      9      5      8
REFUSED               -      -      1      -      1      -      -      -      1      -
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Favorable            68%    84%    72%
Unfavorable          20     12     23
Hvn't hrd enough     12      4      4
REFUSED               -      1      -
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            52%    69%    51%    58%    57%    41%    50%    56%    63%    46%
Unfavorable          21     15     19     19     22     24     25     16     22     21
Hvn't hrd enough     26     16     29     22     21     34     25     28     15     33
REFUSED               -      -      1      1      -      -      -      -      -      1
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Favorable            47%    52%    56%
Unfavorable          18     27     17
Hvn't hrd enough     34     21     26
REFUSED               1      -      -
 
 
11. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            23%    21%    18%    17%    26%    27%    22%    24%    32%    18%
Unfavorable          34     49     37     46     36     17     39     27     32     34
Hvn't hrd enough     42     30     44     35     38     55     38     48     34     47
REFUSED               1      -      1      2      -      -      1      1      2      1
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Favorable            18%    19%    30%
Unfavorable          32     40     30
Hvn't hrd enough     50     40     38
REFUSED               -      1      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            40%    51%    35%    48%    37%    32%    45%    32%    41%    39%
Unfavorable          39     38     40     37     45     35     37     44     39     40
Hvn't hrd enough     18     10     22     12     16     32     16     22     17     19
REFUSED               2      1      2      3      2      1      2      3      3      2
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Favorable            35%    43%    45%
Unfavorable          39     40     38
Hvn't hrd enough     24     14     16
REFUSED               1      3      2
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            67%    66%    70%    71%    70%    63%    66%    70%    74%    65%
Unfavorable          22     25     19     21     20     29     24     19     18     24
Hvn't hrd enough      8      5      9      6     10      8      7     11      7      9
REFUSED               2      4      2      3      1      -      2      1      1      2
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Favorable            59%    69%    79%
Unfavorable          26     24     17
Hvn't hrd enough     14      6      4
REFUSED               1      2      1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            61%    75%    62%    64%    66%    51%    65%    54%    56%    64%
Unfavorable          34     21     32     31     30     45     29     42     38     31
Hvn't hrd enough      2      1      2      2      3      2      3      2      4      2
REFUSED               2      2      4      3      1      1      3      2      2      3
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Favorable            62%    63%    57%
Unfavorable          33     32     41
Hvn't hrd enough      2      3      2
REFUSED               3      3      1
 
 
15. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, taxes, or gun policy?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy and jobs     27%    22%    23%    21%    30%    34%    28%    26%    32%    25%
Terrorism            18     19     22     22     18     14     15     23     18     18
Immigration           8      8      7      8      6      8      6     10      5      8
Federal deficit      10     13      9      7     10     11     12      6     11      9
Health care           3      3      3      1      5      3      3      2      3      3
Foreign policy       16     10     14     18     14     16     15     16     16     16
Climate change        -      -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
Race relations        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Abortion              4      8      7      8      1      1      3      4      6      3
Taxes                 4      5      5      4      2      5      4      3      4      4
Gun policy            7      6      6      6      8      7      7      6      3      9
DK/NA                 5      7      5      5      4      -      6      3      2      6
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Economy and jobs     26%    30%    31%
Terrorism            20     17     15
Immigration           6      9      5
Federal deficit      10      7     12
Health care           3      4      3
Foreign policy       14     18     18
Climate change        -      -      1
Race relations        -      -      -
Abortion              4      3      4
Taxes                 4      2      5
Gun policy            8      8      3
DK/NA                 4      4      2
 
 
16. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - the economy?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  5%     2%     4%     2%     5%     9%     3%     7%     5%     5%
Carson                3      -      4      4      3      1      3      2      3      3
Christie              2      1      2      -      2      7      1      4      3      2
Cruz                 16     20     20     23     12      9     16     16     16     15
Fiorina               3      2      3      2      4      3      2      5      6      2
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              1      1      2      1      -      2      1      1      1      1
Kasich                3      -      1      2      2      6      2      4      5      1
Paul                  3      2      3      2      3      4      4      2      4      2
Rubio                 8      5      6      6      6     13      7     10      9      7
Santorum              -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -      -
Trump                46     62     42     48     53     37     52     37     45     47
DK/NA                10      4     14     10     10     10      8     14      5     14
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Bush                  5%     3%     7%
Carson                2      4      3
Christie              1      2      6
Cruz                 18     19     11
Fiorina               4      3      3
Gilmore               -      -      -
Huckabee              2      1      -
Kasich                1      4      4
Paul                  4      3      2
Rubio                 8      5     13
Santorum              -      -      -
Trump                43     51     45
DK/NA                13      7      7
 
 
17. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - foreign policy?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  9%     2%     6%     4%     7%    16%     7%    11%    10%     8%
Carson                2      2      3      2      4      1      2      2      2      3
Christie              3      -      2      1      4      5      2      5      4      3
Cruz                 27     48     30     40     25     11     26     28     30     25
Fiorina               2      2      1      1      2      2      1      2      2      1
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              1      2      2      2      -      -      1      1      2      -
Kasich                1      -      1      1      1      3      1      2      3      1
Paul                  3      3      3      3      3      3      4      1      2      4
Rubio                18     10     18     18     20     18     20     15     23     16
Santorum              -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      1      -
Trump                24     24     23     20     25     30     28     18     14     30
DK/NA                 9      6     12      9      8      9      7     13      8     10
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Bush                  7%     9%    11%
Carson                3      2      2
Christie              2      2      6
Cruz                 19     36     27
Fiorina               2      -      2
Gilmore               -      -      -
Huckabee              -      2      -
Kasich                1      1      2
Paul                  4      4      2
Rubio                10     22     26
Santorum              -      1      -
Trump                37     20     17
DK/NA                13      2      6
 
 
18. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - illegal immigration?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  3%     -      -      2%     3%     4%     2%     3%     3%     2%
Carson                2      1      3      1      3      3      1      3      3      2
Christie              2      -      2      -      -      6      1      2      2      2
Cruz                 22     32     25     33     20      9     21     22     23     20
Fiorina               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              -      1      -      1      -      -      1      -      1      -
Kasich                1      -      1      1      -      1      -      1      1      -
Paul                  1      3      1      2      -      2      2      1      1      1
Rubio                15      5     10      9     17     25     14     18     19     13
Santorum              -      -      1      -      1      1      1      -      1      -
Trump                46     53     47     46     50     44     51     39     39     50
DK/NA                 7      5     10      6      7      6      6     10      8      7
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Bush                  3%     2%     2%
Carson                3      2      2
Christie              1      1      5
Cruz                 23     23     21
Fiorina               -      -      -
Gilmore               -      -      -
Huckabee              1      -      -
Kasich                -      1      1
Paul                  1      3      1
Rubio                10     14     27
Santorum              -      -      1
Trump                50     48     36
DK/NA                 8      4      5
 
 
19. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  2%     1%     2%     -      4%     3%     3%     1%     4%     1%
Carson               11     12     14     15      9      9     10     13     14     10
Christie              4      2      2      1      5      8      4      4      5      3
Cruz                 29     46     34     41     30     11     31     26     26     31
Fiorina               3      2      1      2      3      4      3      2      4      2
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              6     10     10      9      4      3      6      6      7      4
Kasich                1      2      -      -      -      5      1      1      2      1
Paul                  3      3      2      1      4      5      4      3      3      3
Rubio                10      6      9      9     11     12     10     11     10     11
Santorum              -      -      1      1      -      -      -      1      1      -
Trump                14      9     10     12     13     19     15     12     10     17
DK/NA                15      7     15      8     17     21     12     19     14     16
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Bush                  4%     1%     2%
Carson               12     12      9
Christie              1      4      7
Cruz                 25     36     29
Fiorina               4      2      3
Gilmore               -      -      -
Huckabee              7      6      4
Kasich                -      2      2
Paul                  4      4      4
Rubio                12      6     18
Santorum              1      -      -
Trump                14     16      9
DK/NA                19     11     12
 
 
20. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - taxes?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  4%     1%     5%     2%     3%     7%     3%     5%     4%     3%
Carson                4      5      4      3      7      2      3      5      6      3
Christie              3      -      2      -      2      7      2      4      3      2
Cruz                 19     33     23     32     14      9     21     17     20     18
Fiorina               2      2      1      1      3      3      2      3      4      1
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              1      2      2      2      1      -      1      1      3      -
Kasich                2      1      1      2      2      4      3      2      4      2
Paul                  5      7      4      5      4      5      6      3      6      4
Rubio                 9      4      8      8      7     13      8     11      7     10
Santorum              -      -      -      -      1      1      1      -      -      -
Trump                36     41     31     32     42     35     38     32     32     39
DK/NA                15      4     17     12     15     14     13     18     11     17
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Bush                  4%     4%     3%
Carson                1      4      5
Christie              2      1      7
Cruz                 19     24     16
Fiorina               4      2      1
Gilmore               -      -      -
Huckabee              1      2      -
Kasich                2      2      3
Paul                  4      6      5
Rubio                 6      9     15
Santorum              -      -      1
Trump                36     38     32
DK/NA                23      8     11
 
 
21. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - terrorism?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  5%     -      4%     3%     4%    10%     5%     4%     7%     4%
Carson                1      1      1      -      2      -      1      1      1      1
Christie              5      2      4      4      4      8      3      8      6      4
Cruz                 26     43     30     39     25     10     28     23     29     24
Fiorina               -      -      -      -      -      1      1      -      1      -
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              1      1      1      1      -      1      -      1      1      -
Kasich                2      -      1      1      -      5      1      3      3      1
Paul                  1      2      1      2      1      1      1      1      2      1
Rubio                12      8     12     11     12     15     12     12     15     10
Santorum              1      -      1      -      1      1      1      -      1      1
Trump                36     36     33     33     37     39     38     32     25     41
DK/NA                11      7     11      7     14      9      9     14      9     12
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Bush                  7%     3%     5%
Carson                -      2      1
Christie              3      4      9
Cruz                 23     34     24
Fiorina               1      -      1
Gilmore               -      -      -
Huckabee              -      -      1
Kasich                1      2      2
Paul                  1      2      1
Rubio                11     10     18
Santorum              -      1      1
Trump                43     35     27
DK/NA                10      6     10
 
 
22. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  63%    70%    57%    61%    65%    64%    66%    58%    53%    69%
No                   32     25     32     34     28     33     31     34     40     27
DK/NA                 5      5     10      6      7      3      4      8      6      5
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Yes                  64%    66%    59%
No                   31     29     37
DK/NA                 5      5      3
 
 
23. Would you say that - Ted Cruz is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  81%    93%    89%    90%    84%    66%    83%    76%    80%    81%
No                   13      4      6      5      9     28     12     14     12     13
DK/NA                 7      3      5      5      8      6      5     10      8      6
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Yes                  78%    88%    81%
No                   16      9     13
DK/NA                 6      4      5
 
 
24. Would you say that - Donald Trump has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  81%    88%    85%    82%    80%    82%    82%    80%    81%    82%
No                   17      9     14     17     18     16     16     18     17     16
DK/NA                 2      3      2      1      2      1      1      2      2      2
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Yes                  80%    85%    80%
No                   18     15     18
DK/NA                 1      -      2
 
 
25. Would you say that - Ted Cruz has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  78%    93%    88%    89%    84%    58%    78%    77%    77%    78%
No                   16      6      9      9     10     33     15     18     17     16
DK/NA                 6      1      3      2      5      9      7      5      6      6
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Yes                  75%    87%    73%
No                   19     10     22
DK/NA                 6      4      4
 
 
26. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  64%    71%    66%    69%    68%    55%    70%    56%    60%    67%
No                   29     23     26     25     26     38     26     36     32     27
DK/NA                 6      6      7      5      6      7      5      9      8      5
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Yes                  64%    64%    67%
No                   29     31     29
DK/NA                 7      5      5
 
 
27. Would you say that - Ted Cruz cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  81%    90%    89%    92%    84%    65%    85%    75%    82%    81%
No                   14      5      8      5     11     28     12     17     14     14
DK/NA                 5      5      4      3      5      6      3      8      5      5
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Yes                  79%    88%    79%
No                   14     12     16
DK/NA                 7      1      5
 
 
28. Would you say that - Donald Trump has the right kind of experience to be President or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  54%    66%    57%    58%    57%    50%    59%    47%    56%    54%
No                   40     31     38     37     38     47     35     48     40     40
DK/NA                 6      4      5      5      5      3      6      5      5      6
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Yes                  57%    57%    50%
No                   36     40     48
DK/NA                 7      3      3
 
 
29. Would you say that - Ted Cruz has the right kind of experience to be President or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  76%    92%    80%    85%    75%    65%    80%    70%    75%    77%
No                   18      4     11      8     20     30     15     22     20     16
DK/NA                 6      4      9      7      5      5      6      7      5      7
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Yes                  70%    83%    78%
No                   23     13     17
DK/NA                 7      4      5
 
 
30. Would you say that - Donald Trump shares your values or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  53%    59%    49%    49%    59%    52%    54%    51%    46%    58%
No                   41     34     44     44     36     44     40     43     47     37
DK/NA                 6      8      7      7      5      4      6      7      7      5
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Yes                  54%    55%    50%
No                   39     40     47
DK/NA                 7      5      3
 
 
31. Would you say that - Ted Cruz shares your values or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  75%    96%    88%    87%    81%    52%    78%    70%    74%    76%
No                   17      3      7      7     15     35     15     21     18     16
DK/NA                 8      1      5      6      4     13      7      9      7      8
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Yes                  74%    84%    67%
No                   17     12     24
DK/NA                10      4      9
 
 
32. Would you say that - Donald Trump would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  65%    82%    65%    70%    67%    58%    68%    61%    59%    69%
No                   30     16     31     26     29     40     28     35     35     27
DK/NA                 4      2      4      4      4      2      4      4      5      3
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Yes                  69%    67%    60%
No                   27     29     37
DK/NA                 4      3      3
 
 
33. Would you say that - Ted Cruz would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  69%    86%    75%    81%    65%    56%    73%    62%    60%    74%
No                   25      9     18     12     27     41     22     31     34     20
DK/NA                 6      5      7      7      8      3      5      8      6      6
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Yes                  68%    74%    67%
No                   26     21     30
DK/NA                 6      5      3
 
 
34. Thinking about the Republican nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Shares values        16%    17%    21%    20%    14%    10%    19%    10%    17%    15%
Cares needs/problems 10      5     13      6     11     16      9     13      7     13
Strong leadership    23     24     19     18     27     24     23     23     23     23
Honest/trustworthy   24     30     28     33     16     22     25     24     24     24
Right experience      7      5      6      4      6     13      6      7      7      7
Best chance/winning  17     15     12     16     23     12     15     20     21     15
DK/NA                 4      4      2      3      3      3      4      3      2      4
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Shares values        17%    15%    14%
Cares needs/problems 15     10      6
Strong leadership    22     25     26
Honest/trustworthy   27     25     17
Right experience      8      5      8
Best chance/winning   8     18     28
DK/NA                 3      3      1
 
 
35. Generally speaking, what type of candidate makes the best president someone who has served as a Governor of a state, someone who has served in the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives, or someone who has never held an elected office?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Governor             39%    34%    37%    37%    40%    40%    37%    41%    47%    34%
U.S. Senate/House    20     15     23     24     16     18     20     20     15     23
Never held office    28     33     26     24     33     31     32     22     21     31
DK/NA                14     17     14     15     12     11     11     17     17     11
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Governor             29%    42%    47%
U.S. Senate/House    26     18     19
Never held office    28     31     25
DK/NA                16      9      9
 
 

Sample and Methodology detail