January 26, 2016 - Trump, Cruz Go Down To The Wire In Iowa GOP Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Rubio A Distant Third As Others All But Disappear Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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The Iowa Republican Caucus is a two-man race going down to the wire with Donald Trump at 31 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 29 percent among likely Republican Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is at 13 percent, with no other candidate above 7 percent.

This is virtually unchanged from results of a January 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 31 percent, with 29 percent for Cruz and 15 percent for Rubio.

Today, 2 percent are undecided and 39 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

Among Iowa Republican Caucus-goers, 24 percent say they "would definitely not support" Trump, with 24 percent who would not support former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Only 12 percent say 'no way' to Cruz.

"Despite Sarah Palin's endorsement of Donald Trump and Gov. Terry Branstad's criticism of Sen. Ted Cruz, and despite - or because of - Sen. Cruz' 'New York values' comments, the Iowa Republican Caucus remains too close to call," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"One week before the caucuses gather, the question is which candidate has the best field organization. If the events of the last two weeks haven't moved the needle, one wonders what would change it in the next six days."

"It all comes down to turnout. And with four in 10 likely caucus participants saying they still might change their mind, this is an especially volatile race," Brown added.

"One thing is increasingly evident, the conservative wing of the Republican party, at least in Iowa, is carrying the day," Brown added.

Cruz is taking the lion's share of the right wing among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with Trump taking a good chunk and only a few scraps for the rest of the pack.

Cruz leads Trump:
  • 50 - 34 percent among self-professed Tea Party members;
  • 39 - 27 percent among white, born-again Evangelical Christians;
  • 49 - 29 percent among voters describing themselves as "very conservative."
Trump leads Cruz:
  • 29 - 21 percent among self-identified "somewhat conservative" voters;
  • 37 - 6 percent among voters claiming to be "moderate" or "liberal."
The economy and jobs is the most important issue in deciding their vote, 27 percent of likely Republican Caucus participants say, with 18 percent listing terrorism, 11 percent citing foreign policy and 10 percent pointing to the federal deficit.

From January 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 651 Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  4%     1%     3%     1%     6%     7%     2%     7%     5%     3%
Carson                7      6      7      6     10      4      4     11      8      6
Christie              3      -      -      1      3      6      2      4      3      2
Cruz                 29     50     39     49     21      6     32     25     24     32
Fiorina               1      1      1      -      2      2      1      1      1      1
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              2      1      4      2      2      3      2      3      1      3
Kasich                1      -      -      -      2      3      2      -      3      1
Paul                  5      3      3      4      3     10      6      4      5      5
Rubio                13      4     12      5     19     19     12     15     20     10
Santorum              -      -      1      1      -      -      -      1      -      1
Trump                31     34     27     29     29     37     36     25     28     34
DK/NA                 2      1      2      1      3      2      2      3      1      3
 
                                                               CAUCUS ATTEND Q4
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME  AGE IN YRS.......    First  Previous
                     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-44  45-64  65+    Caucus Caucus
 
Bush                  4%     4%     2%     2%     2%     9%     2%     5%
Carson                7      7      5      7      6     10      6      7
Christie              2      3      4      1      5      1      2      3
Cruz                 25     38     23     29     34     19     25     31
Fiorina               -      2      2      -      2      2      -      2
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              3      1      3      3      1      4      3      2
Kasich                3      -      1      2      1      1      -      2
Paul                  8      3      5      8      4      1      4      6
Rubio                 8     19     16     15     12     15     15     12
Santorum              1      -      -      -      -      3      1      -
Trump                37     22     36     29     32     32     38     28
DK/NA                 3      -      2      3      1      3      4      1
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q5     MOST IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTIC Q6
                     Econ/  Terro- Foreign       Shares Strong Honest/
                     Jobs   rism   Policy        Values Leader Trustwthy
 
Bush                  3%     5%     5%            4%     4%     3%
Carson                3     10      6             8      6     12
Christie              6      2      1             -      5      1
Cruz                 19     31     24            45     12     38
Fiorina               1      1      2             -      2      3
Gilmore               -      -      -             -      -      -
Huckabee              2      -      2             4      2      1
Kasich                3      -      3             1      2      1
Paul                  8      1      4             4      5      7
Rubio                20     17     16            13     12     10
Santorum              -      2      -             -      -      1
Trump                33     28     37            19     49     21
DK/NA                 -      1      1             2      -      4
 
 
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the caucus?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS......
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Cruz   Trump
 
Made up              59%    69%    69%
Might change         39     30     29
DK/NA                 1      1      2
 
 
2. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                 24%    44%    26%    31%    16%    21%    25%    22%    23%    24%
Carson                6      6      2      6      5      6      7      5      5      7
Christie             14     19     15     18      8     14     15     12     14     14
Cruz                 12      4      9      7      9     26     13     12     18     10
Fiorina              10      9      7      9      7     12      9     10     12      9
Gilmore               9     11      6     10      7      8      9      9      9      9
Huckabee              9      9      6      7     10     12     10      9      9     10
Kasich               15     24     15     19     10     12     15     15     14     15
Paul                 10      9      8      8      9     12     10     10     11      9
Rubio                10     14      6      9      7     13     11      8      8     11
Santorum              9      9      6      7     12     10      9     10      9      9
Trump                24     22     26     20     24     33     18     33     31     21
No/No one            33     31     36     31     43     23     33     32     31     34
DK/NA                 6      6      7      8      3      6      8      4      3      7
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME  AGE IN YRS.......
                     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-44  45-64  65+
 
Bush                 27%    22%    19%    25%    27%    18%
Carson                8      4      7      6      6      8
Christie             15     13     12     13     15     13
Cruz                  9     11     19     10     14     17
Fiorina              10      8     10      9      9     12
Gilmore               9      9      8      7      8     11
Huckabee             10      8     11      6     12     11
Kasich               12     17     14     13     18     13
Paul                 11      8     11      6     10     15
Rubio                15      6      6     11     10      9
Santorum              9     10      9      8     10     11
Trump                22     30     19     23     24     26
No/No one            31     30     39     34     32     30
DK/NA                 8      8      2      4      6     11
 
 
4. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Attended previous    67%    74%    72%    71%    62%    69%    64%    72%    77%    62%
First caucus         33     26     28     29     38     31     36     28     23     38
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME  AGE IN YRS.......
                     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-44  45-64  65+
 
Attended previous    65%    66%    70%    53%    76%    77%
First caucus         35     34     30     47     24     23
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
5. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, taxes, or gun policy?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy and jobs     27%    20%    19%    19%    26%    43%    28%    25%    34%    23%
Terrorism            18     19     21     19     20     14     13     25     16     20
Immigration           9     13     10     11      6     12     10      8      6     11
Federal deficit      10     14     12     10     11      8     11      8     12      8
Health care           2      -      3      1      4      3      1      4      2      2
Foreign policy       11     11     12     12     11     10     10     12     15      9
Climate change        -      -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
Race relations        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Abortion              5      5      8      8      3      1      4      6      3      6
Taxes                 5      4      5      5      6      3      6      2      4      5
Gun policy            7      7      5      8     10      2      9      3      4      8
DK/NA                 6      7      4      8      4      5      7      5      3      8
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME  AGE IN YRS.......
                     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-44  45-64  65+
 
Economy and jobs     26%    26%    33%    30%    29%    18%
Terrorism            12     26     15     12     22     24
Immigration          14      5      8      7      8     15
Federal deficit       9     10      8     10     11      6
Health care           3      3      1      3      1      3
Foreign policy       10     10     15     10     13     12
Climate change        -      -      -      -      -      1
Race relations        -      -      -      -      -      -
Abortion              4      6      3      5      5      6
Taxes                 5      2      7      6      4      3
Gun policy            7      6      7     13      3      3
DK/NA                 9      6      4      4      5     10
 
 
6. Thinking about the Republican nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Shares values        26%    38%    31%    35%    24%    13%    26%    26%    25%    26%
Cares needs/problems  9      7      7      6      7     18      9      9      3     12
Strong leadership    26     17     19     21     27     31     26     25     31     22
Honest/trustworthy   24     24     25     22     28     18     23     24     21     25
Right experience      6      4      8      5      4     11      6      6      6      7
Best chance/winning   7      5      7      6      9      7      7      8     11      5
DK/NA                 3      6      3      4      1      2      3      2      2      3
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME  AGE IN YRS.......
                     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-44  45-64  65+
 
Shares values        18%    34%    25%    25%    31%    19%
Cares needs/problems 13     10      5     14      5     10
Strong leadership    28     17     29     25     26     25
Honest/trustworthy   27     23     21     25     20     30
Right experience      5      7      6      5      7      6
Best chance/winning   6      7     10      4      8      7
DK/NA                 3      2      3      2      3      3
 
 

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