January 27, 2016 - Sanders-Clinton Close Race Frozen In Iowa, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Men, Very Liberals, Young Voters Back Sanders Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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With strong support from men, very liberal and younger voters, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders takes 49 percent of Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, with 45 percent for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 4 percent for former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is virtually unchanged from results of a January 12 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Sanders at 49 percent, with 44 percent for Clinton and 4 percent for O'Malley.

Today, 2 percent are undecided and 19 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

The gender gap remains as men back Sanders 63 - 32 percent, while women back Clinton 54 - 40 percent.

Likely Democratic Caucus participants 18 to 44 years old back Sanders over Clinton 78 - 21 percent. Clinton is ahead 53 - 39 percent among voters 45 to 64 years old and 71 - 21 percent among voters over 65 years old.

"Is this deja vu all over again? Who would have thunk it when the campaign began? Secretary Hillary Clinton struggling to keep up with Sen. Bernie Sanders in the final week before the Iowa caucus," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"It must make her think of eight years ago when her failure in Iowa cost her the presidency."

"Perhaps more than other contests, the Iowa caucuses are all about turnout. If those young, very liberal Democratic Caucus participants show up Monday and are organized, it will be a good night for Sen. Sanders," Brown said.

"And if Sanders does win Iowa, that could keep a long-shot nomination scenario alive."

Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants who describe themselves as "very liberal" back Sanders over Clinton 63 - 32 percent, while self-described "somewhat liberal" voters back Clinton 53 - 40 percent. "Moderate" and "conservative" voters are divided, with 47 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for Sanders.

The economy and jobs is the most important issue in deciding their vote, 38 percent of likely Democratic Caucus participants say, with 17 percent citing health care and 9 percent listing climate change.

Sanders leads 53 - 41 percent among caucus-goers who cite the economy and jobs as the most important issue, while Clinton leads 50 - 44 percent among those who list health care.

From January 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 606 Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

3. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Clinton, O'Malley, or Sanders?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS.........................................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              45%    32%    53%    47%    32%    54%    52%    40%
O'Malley              4      1      6      4      4      3      3      4
Sanders              49     63     40     46     63     40     43     53
DK/NA                 2      4      -      2      2      3      2      3
 
                                                               MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q7
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME  AGE IN YRS.......    Econ/  Health
                     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-44  45-64  65+    Jobs   Care
 
Clinton              37%    46%    58%    21%    53%    71%    41%    50%
O'Malley              3      2      6      2      4      6      4      4
Sanders              58     52     34     78     39     21     53     44
DK/NA                 2      1      1      -      3      3      2      2
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTIC Q8.............    CAUCUS ATTEND Q4
                     Shares        Strng  Honest Right  BestChance    First  Previous
                     Values Cares  Leadr  Trust  Expr   OfWinning     Caucus Caucus
 
Clinton              34%    26%    63%    12%    80%    77%           26%    54%
O'Malley              2      3      1      8      3      6             1      5
Sanders              63     68     35     76     17     12            72     38
DK/NA                 1      3      1      4      1      5             -      3
 
 
3A. (If candidate chosen q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the caucus?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS.....
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q3.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q3
                     Tot   Clinton Sanders
 
Made up              81%    83%    80%
Might change         19     17     20
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
4. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS..............................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Attended previous    67%    65%    62%    70%    65%    68%    81%    57%
First caucus         33     35     38     30     35     32     19     43
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME  AGE IN YRS.......
                     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-44  45-64  65+
 
Attended previous    49%    78%    78%    47%    72%    87%
First caucus         51     22     22     53     28     13
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
7. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Democratic nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, taxes, or gun policy?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS..............................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy and jobs     38%    35%    39%    39%    41%    36%    43%    35%
Terrorism             4      1      6      5      4      4      4      4
Immigration           2      3      -      3      2      3      2      2
Federal deficit       2      -      6      2      3      2      1      3
Health care          17     14     18     19     20     15     16     18
Foreign policy        8      8      7      8      5     10      8      8
Climate change        9     13      7      7     10      8      9      9
Race relations        2      1      2      2      2      2      2      2
Abortion              3      5      2      1      1      3      3      2
Taxes                 5      6      7      3      5      5      2      7
Gun policy            5      6      3      5      4      6      4      6
DK/NA                 6      9      2      5      4      6      7      5
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME  AGE IN YRS.......
                     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-44  45-64  65+
 
Economy and jobs     30%    45%    43%    37%    47%    28%
Terrorism             5      3      4      2      7      3
Immigration           3      2      1      3      1      4
Federal deficit       4      1      1      4      1      2
Health care          22     14     14     16     17     19
Foreign policy        5     10     11      4      8     14
Climate change        9      6     11     13      6      6
Race relations        2      1      -      2      1      1
Abortion              4      1      3      3      2      3
Taxes                 6      4      3      9      2      3
Gun policy            6      5      4      4      4      9
DK/NA                 4      7      5      4      4      7
 
 
8. Thinking about the Democratic nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS..............................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Shares values        16%    25%    13%    11%    14%    17%    19%    14%
Cares needs/problems 26     32     23     25     30     23     19     30
Strong leadership    13      7     10     18     11     14     16     11
Honest/trustworthy   17     13     17     19     21     14     13     19
Right experience     18     13     22     17     13     21     18     17
Best chance/winning   9      8     12      9     10      9     13      7
DK/NA                 2      1      2      3      2      2      2      2
 
                     ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME  AGE IN YRS.......
                     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-44  45-64  65+
 
Shares values        15%    19%    16%    15%    17%    15%
Cares needs/problems 30     24     20     37     22     14
Strong leadership    14     10     17     10     15     15
Honest/trustworthy   18     17     10     23     11     15
Right experience     15     17     19     10     21     24
Best chance/winning   6     10     15      5     10     14
DK/NA                 2      2      2      -      3      3
 
 

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