February 1, 2016 - First-Timers Put Trump Ahead In Iowa GOP Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Sanders Needs First-Timers To Tie Clinton In Dem Caucus Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Fueled by a big lead among first-time Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, Donald Trump jumps to a 31 - 24 percent lead over Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida has 17 percent, with Dr. Ben Carson at 8 percent and no other candidate above 4 percent.

This compares to results of a January 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 31 percent, Cruz at 29 percent and Rubio at 13 percent.

Today, 3 percent are undecided and 28 percent of those who name a candidate say they still might change their mind.

Also relying on first-time Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has 49 percent, with 46 percent for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 3 percent for former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley. Only 2 percent remain undecided and 14 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

The key for both Trump and Sanders is first-time caucus goers:
  • Trump leads Cruz 40 - 22 percent among these first-timers, while Republicans who attended prior caucuses go 26 percent for Cruz and 25 percent for Trump;
  • Sanders tops Clinton 62 - 35 percent among Democratic first-timers, while Clinton leads 52 - 41 percent among voters who attended prior caucuses;
  • 44 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats say this is their first caucus.
"The size of the turnout tonight will likely be the key factor, especially on the Democratic side," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "High turnouts with lots of new caucus participants likely would mean a good night for Sen. Bernie Sanders, and for Donald Trump."

"Trump holds his own, while Sen. Ted Cruz seems to lose momentum in this final Quinnipiac University poll, finished less than 24 hours before the caucuses begin. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is showing some last-minute strength, raising the longshot possibility he could challenge for second place," Brown added. Republican Caucus

Among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, 35 percent say they "would definitely not support" Trump, while 15 percent say no to Cruz.

Men support Trump over Cruz 38 - 24 percent, while women are divided with 24 percent for Cruz and 23 percent for Trump.

The economy and jobs is the most important issue in deciding their vote, 27 percent of likely Republican Caucus participants say, with 15 percent listing terrorism and 11 percent citing immigration.

Trump tops Cruz 30 - 18 percent among those who list the economy and jobs as their top issue, and 50 - 21 percent among those who cite immigration.

Voters who cite terrorism are split 30 - 30 percent. Democratic Caucus

There is a huge gender gap among likely Democratic Caucus participants, with men backing Sanders over Clinton 63 - 32 percent and women backing Clinton 56 - 39 percent.

The economy and jobs is the most important issue in deciding their vote, 36 percent of likely Democratic Caucus participants say, with 22 percent citing health care and 11 percent listing climate change.

Sanders leads Clinton 52 - 43 percent among Democrats who say the economy and jobs is most important and 66 - 30 percent among those who list climate change.

Clinton is up 50 - 46 percent among those who say health care is most important.

From January 25 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 890 Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points and 919 Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  4%     1%     3%     2%     6%     5%     4%     5%     7%     3%
Carson                8      8     10      9      9      6      6     11      7      9
Christie              1      -      -      -      1      2      1      1      2      -
Cruz                 24     50     30     43     19      6     24     24     21     25
Fiorina               2      1      2      1      2      3      2      2      2      2
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              3      3      4      4      2      2      2      4      2      3
Kasich                2      1      1      1      1      4      2      2      5      1
Paul                  4      2      1      2      4      6      4      4      3      4
Rubio                17      5     16     10     18     28     15     21     24     14
Santorum              1      -      1      2      1      -      1      1      1      1
Trump                31     29     28     25     34     35     38     23     21     36
DK/NA                 3      1      2      1      3      3      2      3      4      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     18-44  45-64  65+    <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Bush                  2%     5%     4%     1%     4%     6%
Carson                8      7     11     13      7      6
Christie              -      1      1      1      1      2
Cruz                 25     25     19     22     33     17
Fiorina               1      2      2      2      2      3
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -
Huckabee              2      3      4      4      1      3
Kasich                2      1      2      2      2      2
Paul                  7      2      2      6      3      3
Rubio                19     16     19     15     13     26
Santorum              1      2      -      1      1      2
Trump                31     33     28     31     33     29
DK/NA                 2      2      7      3      1      2
 
                     CAUCUS ATTEND Q4     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q5.....
                     First  Previous      Econ/  Terro- Immig- Federal
                     Caucus Caucus        Jobs   rism   ration Deficit
                                         
Bush                  3%     5%            6%     3%     3%     2%
Carson                9      8             6     10      7     10
Christie              -      2             1      2      1      2
Cruz                 22     26            18     30     21     27
Fiorina               1      3             2      -      5      4
Gilmore               -      -             -      -      -      -
Huckabee              3      2             3      2      1      -
Kasich                -      3             3      1      -      3
Paul                  5      2             2      -      1     16
Rubio                15     20            25     19     10     16
Santorum              -      2             1      1      1      -
Trump                40     25            30     30     50     19
DK/NA                 2      3             4      3      2      1
 
 
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the caucus?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS........................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Rubio         Trump
 
Made up              72%           74%           63%           81%
Might change         28            26            37            18
DK/NA                 1             1             -             1
 
 
1B. (If candidate chosen q1) Who is your second choice: Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS........................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Rubio         Trump
 
Bush                  5%            3%            7%            5%
Carson               12            21            15             8
Christie              5             1             9             6
Cruz                 19             -            26            31
Fiorina               5             2             4             3
Gilmore               -             -             -             -
Huckabee              4             5             4             5
Kasich                1             -             4             1
Paul                  5            10             3             3
Rubio                17            29             -            18
Santorum              1             2             -             2
Trump                 9            16            15             -
No first choice       3             -             -             -
DK/NA                15            10            12            19
 
 
2. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                 21%    32%    18%    25%    22%    15%    25%    15%    17%    23%
Carson                7      8      4      5      8      8      8      5      7      7
Christie             12     19     12     16     12      9     14     11     10     14
Cruz                 15      5     10      6     14     28     14     16     21     12
Fiorina               9      8     10      7     13      9     11      7      8      9
Gilmore               9     11      7     11     10      6     11      6     10      9
Huckabee              7      9      6      7      8      7     10      4      8      7
Kasich               13     22     14     19     15      5     15     11     13     14
Paul                 10     13      9     11     10     11     12      9     10     11
Rubio                 9     11      7      9      9      9     11      6      7     10
Santorum              9     10      7      8     11      8     10      6      9      9
Trump                35     34     40     36     30     40     31     40     43     31
No/No one            28     26     29     31     27     24     27     29     23     31
DK/NA                 4      3      6      4      6      2      3      6      5      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     18-44  45-64  65+    <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Bush                 23%    21%    15%    22%    29%    12%
Carson                7      6      6      6      8      5
Christie             12     14      8     14     15      7
Cruz                 14     14     19     14     13     18
Fiorina              10      9      7      8     11      7
Gilmore               7     10      9      9     11      8
Huckabee              6      8      7      8      9      6
Kasich               13     15     10     12     19      9
Paul                  9     11     11      9     13      9
Rubio                 7      9     10     12     10      4
Santorum              7     10      7      9     11      6
Trump                42     32     30     36     32     37
No/No one            24     28     35     28     27     29
DK/NA                 4      4      6      5      4      3
 
 
4. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Attended previous    56%    65%    57%    59%    54%    53%    54%    58%    74%    48%
First caucus         44     35     43     41     46     47     46     42     26     52
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     18-44  45-64  65+    <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Attended previous    37%    62%    77%    49%    57%    64%
First caucus         63     38     23     51     43     36
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
5. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, taxes, or gun policy?
                     LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy and jobs     27%    26%    21%    20%    28%    35%    29%    24%    34%    24%
Terrorism            15     14     15     15     17     15     12     20     14     15
Immigration          11     14     12     10     11     14     12     11      7     14
Federal deficit       9     12      9     11     11      6     13      5     13      7
Health care           5      2      5      6      4      5      4      6      3      6
Foreign policy        8      7      9      7      9      7      7      9      8      8
Climate change        -      -      -      -      -      1      1      -      1      -
Race relations        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Abortion              5      7      8      9      4      1      4      7      6      5
Taxes                 2      1      2      2      3      1      2      2      4      2
Gun policy            8      6     10      7      8     10     11      5      5     10
DK/NA                 8     11     10     13      5      5      6     11      5     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     18-44  45-64  65+    <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Economy and jobs     25%    30%    25%    21%    29%    37%
Terrorism            11     18     18     16     16     13
Immigration          11     11     15     13      9     14
Federal deficit       9      9      8      5     12     13
Health care           8      3      3      9      5      2
Foreign policy        7      7     10      8      6      7
Climate change        -      -      1      1      -      -
Race relations        -      -      -      -      -      -
Abortion              4      5      7      6      6      3
Taxes                 2      3      2      1      3      3
Gun policy           16      4      4     10      9      5
DK/NA                 7      9      7     11      5      4
 
 
3. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Clinton, O'Malley, or Sanders?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS..............................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              46%    33%    47%    53%    32%    56%    50%    43%
O'Malley              3      -      1      5      3      3      5      1
Sanders              49     65     50     39     63     39     43     54
DK/NA                 2      1      1      2      2      2      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     18-44  45-64  65+    <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Clinton              23%    54%    71%    38%    45%    53%
O'Malley              3      3      3      2      3      4
Sanders              74     40     24     58     51     41
DK/NA                 1      3      3      2      2      2
 
                     CAUCUS ATTEND Q4     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q6
                     First  Previous      Econ/  Health Climate
                     Caucus Caucus        Jobs   Care   Change
                                         
Clinton              35%    52%           43%    50%    30%
O'Malley              1      4             3      2      2
Sanders              62     41            52     46     66
DK/NA                 1      3             2      2      2
 
 
3A. (If candidate chosen q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the caucus?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS.............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q3.................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q3
                     Tot           Clinton       Sanders
 
Made up              85%           84%           87%
Might change         14            15            12
DK/NA                 1             1             1
 
 
3B. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q3 ASKING O'MALLEY VOTERS: Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS..............................
                     MATCHUP Q3 WITHOUT O'MALLEY..........................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              47%    33%    48%    55%    34%    57%    53%    43%
Sanders              50     65     50     41     63     41     45     54
DK/NA                 3      1      1      4      3      3      3      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     18-44  45-64  65+    <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Clinton              24%    55%    72%    39%    46%    55%
Sanders              75     41     25     59     52     42
DK/NA                 1      4      4      2      2      3
 
 
4. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS..............................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Attended previous    62%    62%    55%    66%    60%    64%    72%    56%
First caucus         38     38     45     34     40     36     28     44
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     18-44  45-64  65+    <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Attended previous    42%    71%    84%    50%    71%    73%
First caucus         58     29     16     50     29     27
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
6. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Democratic nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, taxes, or gun policy?
                     LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS..............................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy and jobs     36%    31%    36%    40%    39%    33%    41%    32%
Terrorism             4      2      3      6      3      5      2      5
Immigration           2      2      1      2      2      1      2      2
Federal deficit       3      1      5      3      4      2      3      3
Health care          22     22     25     19     19     24     20     23
Foreign policy        6      4      8      7      6      7      8      5
Climate change       11     19      9      7     13      9     11     10
Race relations        3      6      1      1      2      3      2      3
Abortion              2      2      2      1      1      2      1      2
Taxes                 2      3      2      2      3      2      2      3
Gun policy            3      2      5      3      2      4      3      3
DK/NA                 7      5      3      8      8      6      4      8
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME
                     18-44  45-64  65+    <50K   50-100 >100K
 
Economy and jobs     35%    39%    31%    31%    37%    48%
Terrorism             5      5      2      5      5      1
Immigration           1      2      2      2      1      2
Federal deficit       4      2      2      3      3      2
Health care          22     22     24     25     19     18
Foreign policy        3      8      8      5      6      9
Climate change       12      9     11     12     12      7
Race relations        6      -      1      4      2      1
Abortion              2      -      2      2      2      1
Taxes                 3      2      2      2      3      3
Gun policy            3      3      4      3      3      4
DK/NA                 3      6     11      7      7      4
 
 

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