February 5, 2016 - U.S. Republicans Want Trump, But Rubio Is Best In November, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Dem Race Is Tied, But Sanders Runs Better Against GOP Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Donald Trump still leads the GOP presidential pack among Republican voters nationwide, with 31 percent, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 22 percent and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 19 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today. Dr. Ben Carson has 6 percent, with 9 percent undecided and no other candidate above 3 percent.

In the Democratic race nationwide, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has 44 percent, with Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 42 percent, and 11 percent undecided. This compares to a 61 - 30 percent Clinton lead in a December 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.

Sanders and Rubio are the strongest candidates in general election matchups. If former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg runs, he hurts Sanders more than he hurts any of the top Republican contenders.

Among Republicans, 30 percent say they "would definitely not support" Trump, while 15 percent say no to Cruz and 7 percent say no to Rubio.

Sanders has the highest favorability rating among top candidates, while Trump has the lowest.

"Democrats nationwide are feeling the Bern as Sen. Bernie Sanders closes a 31-point gap to tie Secretary Hillary Clinton," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"And despite the Iowa setback, Donald Trump is way ahead of his GOP opponents."

"But that's not the whole story nine months before Election Day. In mano a mano, or mano a womano, face-offs with all contenders, Sanders and Rubio would be the candidates left standing," Malloy added.

"Although he is characterized as the New York counterpunch to Trump, Mayor Mike Bloomberg is more the nemesis of Bernie than he is of Donald."

General election matchups among American voters show:
  • Clinton tops Trump 46 - 41 percent;
  • Clinton ties Cruz 45 - 45 percent;
  • Clinton trails Rubio 48 - 41 percent;
  • Sanders thumps Trump 49 - 39 percent;
  • Sanders edges Cruz 46 - 42 percent;
  • Sanders and Rubio are tied 43 - 43 percent. If Bloomberg runs as a third party candidate in some contests, results are:
  • Sanders at 35 percent, with Trump at 36 percent and Bloomberg at 15 percent;
  • Sanders at 37 percent, with Cruz at 36 percent and Bloomberg at 15 percent.
Sanders has a 44 - 35 percent favorability rating among American voters. Ratings for other candidates are:
  • Negative 39 - 56 percent for Clinton;
  • Negative 34 - 59 percent for Trump;
  • Negative 36 - 42 percent for Cruz;
  • Positive 42 - 28 percent for Rubio;
  • Negative 20 - 25 percent for Bloomberg with 53 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
"While Trump, Clinton and Cruz wallow in a negative favorability swamp, by comparison, Rubio and Sanders are rock stars," Malloy said.

From February 2 - 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,125 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 507 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points and 484 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?
                     REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS................
                                   Wht
                            Tea    BrnAgn               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                  3%     1%     1%     2%     4%     2%     3%
Carson                6      5      9      5      7      4      6
Christie              3      3      3      2      3      4      2
Cruz                 22     31     28     19     26     18     24
Fiorina               2      3      1      2      2      3      1
Gilmore               -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Kasich                3      2      3      5      2      6      3
Rubio                19     14     18     18     20     28     15
Trump                31     32     31     39     23     25     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      -      1      1
DK/NA                 9      9      5      6     13      7     10
 
 
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS.................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Rubio         Trump
 
Made up              48%           45%           46%           60%
Might change         52            55            52            40
DK/NA                 -             -             2             -
 
 
2. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president: Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Kasich, Rubio, or Trump? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS................
                                   Wht
                            Tea    BrnAgn               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Bush                 24%    36%    16%    29%    17%    22%    24%
Carson                8      4      6      8      7     10      6
Christie             12     12      6     12     12     13     11
Cruz                 15      6     10     17     12     21     12
Fiorina              13     10      9     15     11     14     13
Gilmore              10      7      7     12      8     10     10
Kasich               11     11     12     12     10     12     11
Rubio                 7      7      5     11      4      8      7
Trump                30     24     28     27     35     35     28
No/No one            28     34     38     27     29     27     29
DK/NA                 7      6      5      6      7      2      9
 
 
3. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, for whom would you vote?
                     DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....
                                          COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              44%    38%    48%    45%    44%
Sanders              42     48     38     42     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      1      2      2
DK/NA                11     10     12     10     11
 
 
3A. (If candidate chosen q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q3................
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q3......
                     Tot           Clinton       Sanders
 
Made up              65%           67%           63%
Might change         33            29            37
DK/NA                 2             4             -
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              46%     9%    87%    48%    39%    52%    51%    44%
Trump                41     80      7     34     48     36     37     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      1      4      3      2      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      6      2     10      8      6      8      7
DK/NA                 3      2      3      3      2      4      3      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Clinton              61%    40%    44%    41%    30%    42%    36%    82%
Trump                23     50     43     49     57     44     50     10
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      3      3      2      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)     11      7      6      4      8      7      8      3
DK/NA                 2      1      4      3      2      5      3      3
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              45%     9%    89%    42%    38%    52%    51%    42%
Cruz                 45     86      5     41     49     41     40     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      4      3      1      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      4      3      9      7      3      6      4
DK/NA                 3      1      3      5      3      4      2      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Clinton              57%    39%    44%    40%    30%    42%    36%    77%
Cruz                 33     52     45     49     56     49     52     14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      3      1      3      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      6      4      5      9      4      6      2
DK/NA                 4      1      5      4      2      4      3      5
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              41%     5%    84%    38%    34%    47%    45%    39%
Rubio                48     89      9     47     54     43     48     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      2      3      2      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      2      2      8      7      2      3      5
DK/NA                 4      2      4      5      3      6      3      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Clinton              50%    35%    42%    38%    27%    37%    32%    79%
Rubio                37     58     48     51     60     54     57     12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      4      2      2      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      3      3      4      8      2      5      4
DK/NA                 5      1      5      5      3      5      4      4
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Sanders              49%    11%    84%    56%    46%    52%    51%    48%
Trump                39     76      8     30     45     33     35     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      -      2      2      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      5      4      8      5      7      9      4
DK/NA                 5      4      4      4      2      7      4      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Sanders              72%    40%    47%    39%    37%    42%    40%    77%
Trump                19     46     42     48     55     42     48      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      3      2      1      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      7      6      6      4      6      5      6
DK/NA                 4      6      4      4      2      8      5      7
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Sanders              46%     9%    81%    51%    44%    48%    51%    44%
Cruz                 42     83      6     35     44     40     38     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2      2      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      3      6      6      6      4      5      5
DK/NA                 6      4      6      6      4      7      4      7
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Sanders              65%    41%    41%    38%    37%    40%    39%    64%
Cruz                 26     47     46     49     51     49     50     17
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      1      1      1      1      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      6      4      7      7      3      5      4
DK/NA                 5      4      7      5      4      7      5     10
 
 
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Sanders              43%     6%    81%    43%    41%    44%    46%    41%
Rubio                43     83      8     40     47     40     45     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      4      5      6      5      5      5      5
DK/NA                 8      5      6     10      5      9      3     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Sanders              62%    37%    40%    34%    34%    36%    35%    67%
Rubio                26     53     45     52     54     51     52     15
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      5      5      6      6      5      5      6
DK/NA                 7      4     10      6      6      9      7     10
 
 
10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg running as an independent, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Sanders              35%     5%    70%    35%    35%    35%    34%    36%
Trump                36     69      7     28     41     30     28     39
Bloomberg            15     15     11     19     14     15     23     11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      2      6      4      5      4      4
DK/NA                 9      5     10     11      4     13      9      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Sanders              55%    29%    33%    27%    26%    26%    26%    67%
Trump                18     40     39     45     50     38     43      8
Bloomberg            15     16     16     12     16     18     17      7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      6      4      5      3      5      4      6
DK/NA                 9      8      9      9      4     13      9     10
 
 
11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat, Ted Cruz the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg running as an independent, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Sanders              37%     6%    70%    36%    37%    37%    36%    37%
Cruz                 36     74      3     28     39     33     33     37
Bloomberg            15     12     13     21     13     16     20     12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1      1      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      4      5      5      3      3      4
DK/NA                 8      5     10      9      5     11      7      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Sanders              57%    32%    33%    28%    29%    29%    29%    61%
Cruz                 20     41     38     44     46     41     43     13
Bloomberg            14     17     15     12     15     17     16     12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1      -      -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      4      5      5      5      3      4      4
DK/NA                 8      5      9     10      6     10      8      9
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            39%     7%    75%    39%    31%    47%    43%    37%
Unfavorable          56     89     22     55     64     49     54     57
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      2      5      3      2      1      3
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      2      2      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            39%    34%    42%    41%    23%    39%    31%    73%
Unfavorable          55     63     54     56     74     57     66     20
Hvn't hrd enough      5      2      2      1      2      3      3      5
REFUSED               1      2      2      2      1      1      1      2
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            34%    60%    13%    26%    39%    29%    28%    37%
Unfavorable          59     34     83     64     54     64     67     56
Hvn't hrd enough      5      4      3      8      5      5      3      6
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      2      1      2      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            16%    40%    37%    41%    47%    36%    41%     8%
Unfavorable          79     51     59     51     46     57     52     84
Hvn't hrd enough      2      8      3      5      4      5      5      6
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      3      1      2      2
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            36%    68%     9%    27%    39%    33%    33%    37%
Unfavorable          42     19     61     48     45     38     56     35
Hvn't hrd enough     20     11     27     23     13     26      9     25
REFUSED               2      2      3      2      3      2      1      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            25%    42%    37%    41%    42%    39%    40%    19%
Unfavorable          49     41     41     35     45     38     41     41
Hvn't hrd enough     25     17     19     21     11     21     16     38
REFUSED               1      1      3      3      2      2      2      2
 
 
15. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            42%    69%    17%    40%    47%    38%    44%    41%
Unfavorable          28      8     48     30     30     26     36     24
Hvn't hrd enough     29     20     34     28     21     36     18     33
REFUSED               2      2      1      1      2      1      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            34%    45%    45%    44%    52%    44%    48%    12%
Unfavorable          32     27     26     23     28     22     25     38
Hvn't hrd enough     31     27     27     30     18     33     26     50
REFUSED               3      -      1      3      2      1      2      -
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            44%    13%    72%    53%    44%    45%    51%    41%
Unfavorable          35     66     10     30     41     30     38     34
Hvn't hrd enough     19     19     18     16     13     23     10     23
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      1      2      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            60%    41%    41%    36%    39%    40%    39%    55%
Unfavorable          19     43     39     38     48     38     43     14
Hvn't hrd enough     19     16     19     23     12     20     16     31
REFUSED               2      1      2      3      1      2      2      -
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            20%    13%    27%    21%    19%    21%    29%    15%
Unfavorable          25     36     15     24     36     16     26     25
Hvn't hrd enough     53     50     56     54     44     62     44     58
REFUSED               2      1      2      1      2      1      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            19%    21%    21%    18%    20%    23%    22%    14%
Unfavorable          14     24     30     30     38     19     28     23
Hvn't hrd enough     65     54     48     50     40     58     49     63
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      1      1      -
 
 

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