October 1, 2014 - Clinton Is Blooming In The Garden State, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gov. Christie's Job Approval Is Sinking In The Swamp Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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In an early look at the 2016 presidential race, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a 20 percentage point lead among women as she tops Gov. Christopher Christie 50 - 40 percent among all New Jersey voters, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

Secretary Clinton leads other possible Republican contenders by even bigger margins, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds:
  • 53 - 32 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
  • 55 - 31 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.
Women back Clinton over Christie 56 - 36 percent, while men are divided with 43 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for Christie. Independent voters back Clinton 46 - 40 percent.

The Democrat does even better among women when facing other Republicans.

She gets 60 percent of women to Bush's 26 percent and leads 46 - 39 percent among men. Independent voters back the Democrat 53 - 32 percent.

Clinton tops Paul among women 62 - 25 percent and leads among men 47 - 39 percent. Independent voters back the Democrat 52 - 32 percent.

"The adopted daughter next door whips the native son when it comes to presidential politics in New Jersey," said Maurice Carroll, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Gov. Christopher Christie gives former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton more of a battle in New Jersey, but a huge lead among women voters keeps the lady from Chappaqua, New York, ahead of the home- state governor."

"The other Republicans hardly register," Carroll added. "Sure, it's a blue state but, beyond that, New Jersey women voters don't like former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush or Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at all."

Gov. Christie's Job Approval

New Jersey voters give Gov. Christie one of his lowest job approval ratings ever, as 46 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a 49 - 47 percent job approval in an August 7 Quinnipiac University poll. Today's approval rating is his lowest since a 44 - 47 percent job approval in a June 21, 2011, survey.

Once again, women are Christie's undoing as 48 percent disapprove and 43 percent approve. Men approve 51 - 42 percent.

Republicans approve 82 - 13 percent while Democrats disapprove 70 - 21 percent. Among independent voters, 48 percent approve and 43 percent disapprove.

"Just 11 months after Christie's 60 - 38 percent reelection victory, his job approval is evenly divided," Carroll said. "How come? The news media continues to mention Bridgegate and the reality of the state's huge pension problem is beginning to sink in. The blue-ribbon citizen commission will soon make recommendations and that ominous word, 'taxes' is starting to show up in the discussions."

From September 25 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,475 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Clinton              50%     8%    86%    46%    43%    56%
Christie             40     86      9     40     46     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      3      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      2      2      2
DK/NA                 6      4      4      9      7      6
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Oct 01  Aug 06  Feb 20
                     2014    2014    2013
 
Clinton              50      50      49
Christie             40      42      45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       3       1
DK/NA                 6       4       5
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Clinton              53%    11%    88%    53%    46%    60%
Bush                 32     79      3     32     39     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      3      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      1      4      5      3
DK/NA                 9      5      8      9      9      9
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Oct 01  Aug 06
                     2014    2014
 
Clinton              53      54
Bush                 32      34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3
DK/NA                 9       6
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Clinton              55%    16%    90%    52%    47%    62%
Paul                 31     71      3     32     39     25
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      1      3      3      3
DK/NA                 9      9      5     10      8      9
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Oct 01  Aug 06
                     2014    2014
 
Clinton              55      55
Paul                 31      35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2
DK/NA                 9       6
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as Governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              46%    82%    21%    48%    51%    43%
Disapprove           45     13     70     43     42     48
DK/NA                 9      5      9      9      8      9
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as Governor? (*High also 74% Jan 2013, **Low also 44% Jun 2010)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Oct 01  Aug 07  Apr 09  Jan 15  Jul 10  Feb 20  Jun 21
                     2014    2014    2014    2014    2013    2013*   2011**
 
Approve              46      49      49      55      68      74      44
Disapprove           45      47      44      38      26      22      47
DK/NA                 9       5       7       7       6       4      10
 
 

Demographic Summary